2024-25 NBA odds preview, picks: Knicks duo among intriguing names in Sixth Man of the Year field |Max Sporty|

We are witnessing a sea change in NBA Sixth Man of the Year voting. This award used to be the domain of the volume scorer. Andre Iguodala and Manu Ginobili combined to win it just once. Jamal Crawford and Lou Williams combined to do that six times. Even as we experienced a shift away from the Crawford-Williams types, half of the past 20 winners were that season’s leading bench scorer.

But Malcolm Brogdon won the award by finishing fifth in bench scoring during the 2022-23 season. Naz Reid, the reigning 6MOY, was 12th in scoring last season among players who came off the bench at least 30 times. Reid bucked another trend in the process, becoming only the third center in NBA history to win the award. This is almost always a rangers award. Reid, Montrezl Harrell and Lamar Odom are the only non-guard winners in the past 20 years. The one relatively consistent feature of this award is that it goes to winners. Williams is the only player of the 21st century to win this award on a lottery team. He is the only winner since 2011 not to play for a top-four seed.

There was a time in basketball history in which the sixth man archetype was quite rigid. Voters expected it to be a gunner, so they voted for the best gunner they could find. These discussions have grown more nuanced in recent years. Now, we obviously know that Andre Iguodala is a better basketball player than Jamal Crawford, and that makes it easier to predict that the next Iguodala to reach the ballot will win more easily.

So with that in mind, let’s explore the 2024-25 Sixth Man of the Year odds. Obviously the scoring guards still have history on their side, but this is a much wider field today than it once was.

The favorites

The following candidates have odds no longer than +1000

This is a short section for this particular award. Right now, we’re looking at Malik Monk (longest odds at +575), defending champion Naz Reid (+700) and Phoenix Suns shooting guard Grayson Allen (+1000). I’m not particularly enthusiastic about any of them.

Monk improved as a playmaker last season, but he’s still not an all-around contributor. His path to this trophy is scoring a lot of points, and with DeMar DeRozan joining the Kings, there simply won’t be as many shots available to him. Monk finished second last season, but he averaged 1.5 more shots per game than he ever had in a season before. It seems his volume is dipping.

The same is probably true for Naz Reid. Like we covered during the season, much of his surprise rise to the trophy a year ago was based on numbers he put up as a starter. For Reid to win again, you’re counting on either Rudy Gobert or Karl-Anthony Towns to get hurt again, for Reid to thrive again, and for the field to be as weak or weaker than it was a year ago. That’s before we even consider how his own roster will affect him. The Timberwolves drafted Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon in hopes of finding a long-term point guard. They are both score first players. They will both get minutes and shots. Reid can score in almost any context, but relying on rookies to get him the ball seems risky.

Of the three, Allen comes out on top. He might get to hit his numbers as a starter too considering how often Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal tend to get injured, and now, he has Tyus Jones to set him up as a more traditional point guard. Allen led the NBA in 3-point percentage a season ago and posted numbers that likely would have had him in the race had he not been a starter. However, he played more than 33 minutes per game to get there. Phoenix has so much firepower that a shooter like Allen is a real threat to stay hot all year long thanks to all that extra space, but it’s just hard to pick a scorer who isn’t much of a creator for this specific award. . Allen doesn’t bring much else to the table, so while he’s a decent bet, he’s not one I’d recommend.

The middle of the pack

The following candidates have odds between +1000 and +2500

Now we are talking. My favorite bet on the board is Norman Powell (+1600). The Clippers were applauded for their moves on the edge this offseason, but most of the players they added were defensive specialists. Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn are offensive negatives. Nic Batum isn’t, but he’s not much of a shot creator at this stage of his career. Powell is probably the No. 3 option offensively here, and when you account for James Harden’s age and Kawhi Leonard’s injury history, there will be nights when he’s No. 2 or maybe even No. 1. He finished fourth in back-to-backs. -back-to-back seasons, posting competitive numbers in both seasons. He’ll just see more opportunity this year.

Let’s get away from the scorers for a second. Josh Hart (+1600) joked on Twitter Monday that he is 1-4, not a center, due to the news that Mitchell Robinson will not be ready for the start of the season. If we’re being absolutely technical, he’s right. Hart is not a center. Tom Thibodeau is just going to make him do center stuff because Tom Thibodeau makes him do everything. From February 1st to the end of last season, Hart averaged just under 40 minutes per game. He went on to average 46.4 minutes per game in New York’s first nine playoff outings before blowouts and injuries lowered that figure. Thibodeau is about to enter the scary and uncertain circumstance of starting a season without a healthy, starting-caliber prospect, and you tell me I can get average odds on Hart, the player he can’t keep away from. the court? The real question here is how long he comes off the bench. Fortunately, there are probably five non-centers ahead of him in line to start: Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Julius Randle. That should allow him to continue to rack up significant bench minutes, whether it’s at center or somewhere else, and do all the unconventional Hart things that Thibodeau, and voters, adore. If you believe in the idea that voters are slowly moving away from the Sixth Man of the Year first-score model, Hart is probably your candidate.

While we’re on the Knicks, DiVincenzo (+1400) is an interesting candidate. Ultimately I just think there are too many mouths to feed in New York. For him to get enough on-ball reps to win this award, it probably takes enough injuries in New York that he still starts a decent chunk of games. He averaged just 7.9 points per game off the bench last season, so he’s definitely below Hart among New York candidates.

I like CJ McCollum (+1400), but only in a package with Trey Murphy (+4000). Some completely overqualified Pelican will come off the bench because of their wing rush. I’d probably recommend Brandon Ingram because he doesn’t seem to be in their long-term plans anyway and his trade value can’t exactly go down, but it’s more likely that McCollum or Murphy. If you like one, you like both. Take the pair, see who’s starting, and feel comfortable that one of the best reserves in basketball will be in your portfolio even if you’re not sure who it will be.

Jordan Clarkson (+1500) becomes more interesting the moment he is traded. Right now, the Jazz aren’t good enough to build a case for him. Bobby Portis (+2000) is a slightly worse Naz Reid, but you’re going long for a player who will have some feeling behind him after back-to-back third-place finishes. If you’re a Bucks believer this season, I won’t argue with those odds. It’s just hard to build an especially compelling story around him. He’s not exactly as defining of Milwaukee’s style of play as Reid is of Minnesota’s. He doesn’t address their biggest weakness (defense). He’s just a very strong bench scorer playing a position that limits his creation up top. I won’t blame you for taking him, but I wouldn’t. Alex Caruso (+2000) is a bit too double Lu Dort and Cason Wallace to win a vote from me. A spectacularly valuable player, but it will be difficult for him to stand out, especially if the Thunder are concerned with his minutes, as they are used to being with most of their players. Caris LeVert (+1700) is a longshot. If he couldn’t make the ballot last season when Darius Garland broke his jaw, I just can’t see him making it under more normal circumstances. I’m not particularly fond of perimeter scorers with shaky 3-point shots. Spencer Dinwiddie (+2500) is a longshot because Jaden Hardy might be better than him right now. There’s a reason Dinwiddie was available to be signed three weeks into free agency.

The long shots

The following candidates have odds longer than +2500

Cole Anthony (+5000) averaged between 17.1 and 18.6 points per 36 minutes in all four of his NBA seasons The Magic guard is a league-average shooter with the mentality of a gunner. I’ll gladly take 50-to-1 in a hot shooting season or a five-year jump on a very good team that desperately needs someone to score off their bench.

Julian Strawther (+15000) is probably too much of a long shot, but here’s the logic: Denver shot the fewest 3-pointers in the NBA last season and Strawther is their best chance to correct that this season. He averaged 11 of them in his two Summer League games. I don’t think he gets the minutes to realistically win, but then again, we’re talking about a 150-to-1 spread, not a bet I’d build a portfolio around. Most Denver bets will likely be directed at Russell Westbrook (+2500), but if it doesn’t happen on the Clippers before season one, it probably just won’t happen. The shooting is too problematic, especially for a team that needs it like Denver.

Bruce Brown (+15000) will not win this award in Toronto. Even though the Raptors were pretty good, he just didn’t play particularly well during his short stop in Toronto. If he’s traded in December or January, though, the version of him we saw in Denver was absolutely good enough to win this thing, so I don’t mind the odds of taking him now in the hopes that he gets redirected to the. correct destination

I am strongly tempted by Jaden Hardy (+8000). The Mavericks trusted him enough in his second year to give him true playoff minutes, and Tim Hardaway Jr. received votes in Dallas in two of the past four years. There’s clearly room on this list for a bench scorer to rack up numbers despite the presence of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The books seem to believe it will be Dinwiddie. I’m Team Hardy. Probability plays a part in that, but I’m just a believer in skill as well. He is the quintessential bench bucket, and in his first two seasons, he averaged a hair over 20 points per 36 minutes. If you think he beats Dinwiddie and you think Doncic and/or Irving miss enough time to create more opportunities for him, those odds are reasonable. I probably wouldn’t go so far as to say absolutely bet it. You end up swinging a player who barely played, but remember Reid never averaged 20 minutes a game before last season. Life comes at the Sixth Man of the Year nominees fast.