2024-25 NBA odds preview, picks: Why Rookie of the Year field lacks obvious favorites |Max Sporty|

Rookie of the Year is the NBA’s simplest prize. As we’ll cover when we preview all the others, voters tend to look for certain types of candidates when choosing most awards. But Rookie of the Year? No. That’s the statistical premium. Half of the last 10 winners were that year’s leading rookie scorer. When it wasn’t, it was usually because they were the top rookie reliever that season, as LaMelo Ball, Ben Simmons and Ja Morant were. Joel Embiid would be in the first group if he had played more games. The closest thing we have to an outlier lately is Scottie Barnes, who finished third in scoring, third in rebounding and seventh in assists. In most cases, you can add up the points, rebounds and assist columns and find your winner.

You can generally find your likely winners by cutting down the field in a few easy ways. Best picks generally win this award. Half of the past 16 winners were No. 1 overall picks. We’ve only gone outside the top five twice in that span: for No. 6 overall pick Damian Lillard and for No. 36 overall pick Malcolm Brogdon, who won because of Embiid’s injuries. You’re usually also looking for guards, or at least ball handlers. If you think of the arrival of LeBron James in 2003 as the beginning of the modern era, we’ve only had four big man winners in this relevant time period: Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns and Victor Wembanyama. We had forward-sized ball handlers like James, Kevin Durant and Paolo Banchero win, but they all led their teams in usage percentage in that. Most of the time, we are looking for a guard who will have the ball a lot.

Now, this is where things get complicated: there is any 2024 rookies will have the ball a lot? This draft class was, by popular consensus, among the least promising in NBA history The top two picks were projects that don’t play guard. The top-selected guard, Reed Sheppard, joins a backcourt rotation that already has two recent top picks (Jalen Green and Amen Thompson) and a max-contract player (Fred VanVleet). The top five were rounded out by non-shooters. Stephon Castle shot 26.7% on 3 at UConn. Ron Holland shot 23.9% in the G League. Forget about finding a used newbie here. If you’re confident you can find a rookie who will even get consistent minutes, that’s a candidate worth considering.

So let’s dive into this year’s Rookie of the Year odds. Where is the value in a class without an obvious favorite?

The favorites

Candidates whose longest current odds are +1000 or shorter

Please don’t bet on the #2 overall pick. Alex Sarr (+1000) shot 19.1% from the floor at Summer League. Do you know how hard it is to do that as a center? Sarr has a long-term advantage. He can’t create his own shot at the moment. This is an award for calculating statistics. The Wizards have no one to create shots for him. I’m more optimistic about Matas Buzelis (+1000) providing value as a rookie, but I can’t see him actually winning this trophy. Again, think about calculating statistics. The Bulls traded for Josh Giddey to give him the ball. Zach LaVine, Coby White and Nikola Vucevic are still here. He will not accumulate numbers.

I don’t think the odds are long enough to justify a Stephon Castle (+1000) bet. If he’s a league-average 3-point shooter as a rookie he probably wins the award. There’s just no real evidence that he’s going to be there so soon. He’s barely even an average free throw shooter at this stage, and that’s going to cause problems in an offense with a Hall of Fame point guard (Chris Paul) and one who swung the team’s entire plus-minus whenever he played last season (Tre). Jones). The touches probably won’t be there for a 3-point shooter who hits below 30% of his attempts to rack up the needed stats.

There will likely be a moment when a Reed Sheppard (+700) bet makes some sense. I don’t think it will happen in the preseason. Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green are ahead of him in the backcourt. Amen Thompson is too, although he is not as easy to place. Verda and Alperen Sengun, at least as of this writing, are both playing for contracts, so it’s hard to know how statistically either of them will be, and Ime Udoka is extremely demanding of young players. Sheppard will have to prove he can hang on the floor defensively. He will do so eventually. Although unconventional, he generates value through turnover generation, and the Rockets have the personnel to cover his deficiencies. They desperately need his shooting. It seems more likely that he acclimates over time and takes on a bigger role as the season progresses. Check him out around December 1st, especially if you doubt any other candidate who takes office early.

Zach Edey (+550) is the only player in this tier that I would feel comfortable betting on in the preseason. We are relatively confident that he will start. Jonas Valanciunas has set a blueprint for how the Grizzlies plan to use this type of player, and if Edey can replicate his numbers he’ll be in the thick of it. He’s an old rookie at 22, so the learning curve will be shorter, and while there are certainly playoff question marks on defense, his sheer size and the role clarity he gains standing next to Jaren Jackson Jr. means he’ll rack up blocks . . It’s a chalk pick, but the truth is that Edey is the only rookie in this class who comes in with relative certainty in both role and production. We know what he will be. Everyone else is a question mark.

The middle of the pack

Candidates whose longest current odds are between +1000 and +2500

My favorite pick on the board is Bub Carrington (+1600), although that is mostly a function of circumstance. Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has no one to stand him up. Playing for Washington is perfect for Carrington because he doesn’t need to be set up. He projects as a ball-handler on the league’s least-serious team. If he wants to average double-digit shot attempts, who’s going to stop him? All the Wizards care about right now is developing their youth. They want Carrington to explore the studio space. This is an environment conducive to statistical accumulation. If he is good, he will have every chance to win this award. That won’t be the case for potentially top prospects playing on teams with higher immediate ambitions.

If you’re looking for another candidate in this range to bet on, you could make an argument for Rob Dillingham (+1700) using Ben Gordon logic. In 2005, Ben Gordon finished second in the NBA in Rookie of the Year voting because he actually won Sixth Man of the Year. An electric rookie bench scorer for a winning team has a chance in a weak backfield, and the Timberwolves are heavily invested in turning Dillingham into that scorer. They drafted him to eventually replace the 36-year-old Mike Conley, so getting him reps is important now. Minnesota’s offense was nearly seven points worse per 100 possessions when Anthony Edwards was rested last season. If there is a solution to that problem on their roster, they will empower whoever provides it. The problem is, Dillingham isn’t the only candidate to do so. Minnesota drafted a similar prospect, Terrance Shannon Jr. (+4000), at number 27 overall. To be honest, I suspect the two of them will dilute each other enough to eliminate both of them from the race. However, in a pure value play, I would just prefer the Shannon probability. He’s much older at 24, and Dillingham is still pretty raw.

Nothing else in this range is particularly noteworthy. No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher (+1300) plays on Trae Young’s team, so it’s hard to see him controlling enough possessions to get into this race. Even if he could, he’s also competing with teammates Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels for minutes and touches going forward. They will likely play together, but none of the three are off-ball splitters. They all need the rock. They will all cut into each other’s touches. In Portland, Donovan Clingan (+2000) is stuck behind Deandre Ayton (and, currently, Robert Williams III). Even if Pistons pick Ron Holland could shoot, none of his teammates can shoot, so there won’t be enough space for any theoretical scorer to be optimized there.

I guess you could form a theoretical argument for Dalton Knecht (+1300) on the logic that he’s an older shooter with a head coach who once shared his style of play. JJ Redick will know how to use shooters. LeBron James obviously does too. But there are so many Lakers with defensive deficiencies ahead of him in the pecking order. How many minutes can Knecht really play when Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell are full-time starters? Someone has to defend the point of attack. I won’t stop you from making this bet. It’s just not one I would advise.

The long shots

Candidates whose longest current odds are longer than +2500

No, you should not bet on Bronny James (+30000). Don’t donate your hard earned money to the books. Now that that’s out of the way, this is the point on the list where a team matters far more than a player. Teams will force the issue with high picks. The investment is significant enough to work them into alignments whether they are good or bad. But low picks? They vary significantly. The stakes are usually too high definitively to justify consistent minutes for them unless the roster situation is dire. Bad teams vary from case to case. Sometimes they play for developmental purposes. Sometimes they spend most of the season in the G League. And sometimes, they might get a few extra minutes here and there due to tanking. Hey, just because a player puts up numbers doesn’t mean he’s contributing to a win. So at this point, unless you have a personal reason to take a swing on a long shot, we’re looking at fit first and foremost.

Do I think the Pelicans will use Yves Missi that much (+20000)? No. But the only other center on their roster is Daniel Theis. Missi is expected to be a project. Dereck Lively was the same way a year ago. At 200-to-1 odds, I’m open to Missi wowing in camp and earning minutes that appear to be very available. The Pelicans will likely have to play small ball this season because of their personnel, but there’s no reason to believe they wouldn’t play more traditionally if someone on their roster forced them to. Jonas Valanciunas didn’t exactly match up with Zion Williamson. They played together a lot anyway.

Keyonte George played the fifth-most minutes among rookies last season and attempted the fourth-most shots. That’s the draft for Utah pick Isaiah Collier (+8000). Right now, he is blocked by George and veteran guards Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson. Utah’s last two seasons started well before Danny Ainge traded away veterans at the trade deadline to go full tank. Collier was an elite recruit before a messy season at USC hurt his draft stock. Maybe getting into a more stable situation helps him back on track. If it does, we know the opportunity will be there for him, especially down the stretch.

Kyshawn George (+8000) gets the same Wizards boost that Carrington does. Shannon, as we covered, has a case for the same reasons Dillingham does. Beyond that group, you’ll have to pay attention to the preseason to see which, if any, surprise rookies stand out. One or two unexpected newcomers will sneak onto the ballot. Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. both received votes outside the lottery a season ago. The buzz around them came relatively early. Last year’s class was too strong for them to seriously compete for the trophy. This year it is not. If you notice camp or preseason standouts in situations that could lend themselves to a rookie putting up numbers, it’s worth taking a preseason flyer.