With five games on the Week 3 NFL schedule featuring NFL totals of 40 points or less, it might be tempting to favor the high side when betting NFL underdogs this week. However, underdogs are 17-14-1 through the first two weeks thanks to historically low passing numbers. Rookie quarterbacks in particular have served under punters, with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix failing to throw a single touchdown pass through the first two weeks and underdogs hitting in four of their six starts combined.
Conventional wisdom says those three rookies will eventually start to settle in, but how long can you ride the NFL trends before we reach equilibrium? What Week 3 NFL total should you aim for when putting together your Week 3 NFL over/under picks? Before you make any Week 3 NFL picks or NFL picks, be sure see the NFL predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The model, which simulates each NFL game 10,000 times, rises well above $7,000 for $100 players on top rated. NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season. It’s also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. It’s also 8-5 on top-rated over/under picks since the start of that season.
The model has also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight NFL picks and has beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who followed it is way up.
Now, the model searched the Week 3 NFL odds and locked in five surefire NFL over/under best bets. If you successfully talk its picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 3 NFL total picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 3 NFL overall picks
One part of the five-line NFL totals speaks that we can reveal: The model says that we will see the Super (49.5) hits in New Orleans Saints against Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. This is a matchup between the No. 1 scoring offense (New Orleans) and the No. 5 scoring offense (Philadelphia) through the first two weeks of the season and the model expects a high-scoring affair accordingly.
The Saints are averaging 45.5 points per game despite pulling starters in blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys to open the season and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will have a chance after one of the NFL’s worst secondaries on Sunday. The Eagles ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense last season and are 28th through the first two games of 2024.
New Orleans has scored on all 15 of Derek Carr’s possessions this season so there is potential for the Saints to put a significant dent in this total by themselves. Meanwhile, the Eagles are averaging 27.5 points and 387.5 yards of offense through the first two weeks and are more than capable of making a sizeable contribution. The model predicts the over hits in well over 50% of simulations, with a projected final score of Saints 28, Eagles 25. See what other NFL over/under parlay picks to make here.
How to talk Week 3 NFL over/under
The model also jumped on four other NFL games where it says the over-under is way off, including two that hit in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s best NFL Week 3 bets and over/under predictions at SportsLine.
So how many points are scored in each game and what over/unders should you include for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see Model’s Week 3 NFL overall picks in a 187-130 run on top-rated picks.and find out.
Week 3 NFL totals, spreads, schedule
Get Week 3 NFL over/under prediction at SportsLine
Sunday, September 22
Giants at Browns (-6.5, 39.5)
Bears at Colts (-1, 43.5)
Texans at Vikings (+2, 46)
Eagles at Saints (-2.5, 49.5)
Chargers at Steelers (-1.5, 36)
Broncos at Buccaneers (-6.5, 41)
Packers at Titans (-2.5, 38)
Panthers at Raiders (-5, 40)
Dolphins at Seahawks (-4.5, 41.5)
Lions at Cardinals (+3, 51.5)
Crows at Cowboys (+1, 48)
49ers at Rams (+6.5, 43.5)
Chiefs at Falcons (+3, 46.5)
Monday, September 23rd
Jaguars at Bills (-5, 45.5)
Commanders at Bengal (-7.5, 47)
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