76ers’ best-case and worst-case scenario: With Paul George and Joel Embiid, can this roster get over the hump? |Max Sporty|

It’s much easier to preview the 2024-25 Philadelphia 76ers than it is to preview the previous iteration. This time last year, the Sixers changed coaches and added some players on minimum contracts, but they entered training camp in limbo, with the trade request of a star player hanging over the team for the second time in three seasons. Philadelphia general manager Daryl Morey has long said that rosters shouldn’t be judged in July as if they were finished products; as a result of James Harden’s pick-in-and-ask-out maneuver, it was impossible to evaluate that particular roster until the last day of October.

The Harden trade didn’t return another star, but it set the stage for the Sixers to make the biggest splash of the summer. When the Los Angeles Clippers got stingy with unrestricted free agent Paul George, Philadelphia stepped in with a maximum contract offer and brought in Dr. J to his threshold. Tyrese Maxey, who made his first All-Star appearance and won the 2023-24 Most Improved Player Award, agreed to a max contract on the first day of free agency as well, and Morey’s front office spent the rest of the offseason filling gaps: Kelly Oubre Jr. is back on the mid-level room and Kyle Lowry is back for the minimum. Andre Drummond took a piece of what was left of Philly’s cap space, and, miraculously, Caleb Martin took the rest. Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson joined on the minis, too, as did very spirited French forward Guerschon Yabusele, after dip further LeBron James in the gold medal game at the Paris Olympics.

The Sixers would certainly love to have another French forward, Nicolas Batum, but the 35-year-old left for the Clippers, who offered him the two-year exception. Overall, though, after creating the flexibility to do something that almost never happens these days — land a legitimate star in free agency — Philadelphia appears to have checked almost every box, including one that will give Morey a path to scoring. extra box along the way: KJ Martin re-signed on a two-year, $16 million non-guaranteed in Year 2, which makes him both a potential rotation player for the Sixers and effectively a commercial exception. When franchise player Joel Embiid signed a contract extension last friday, it felt like a formality. Yes, the team is coming off a first-round exit, but Embiid has two stars on his side, complementary role players with experience and a championship coach (Nick Nurse) who has already helped expand his game. Why wouldn’t he want to stay?

The state of play

Last year: The Sixers were done with the Harden distraction before Halloween, and Embiid took to Nurse’s new offense from the start, coming off his MVP season until a meniscus injury derailed everything. Despite finishing the regular season on an eight-game winning streak, they finished 47-35 (No. 15 on offense, No. 11 on defense) and had to win a game-in game that earned them a first-round matchup with the Knicks, a slugfest that featured a 50-point Game 3 from Embiid, a 46-point Game 5 from Maxey and a heartbreaking, season-ending loss in Game 6 on their home court.

The off-season: Oubre and Martin aren’t lightning shooters, but they are home run signings and likely starters. Philly knows exactly what to expect from Drummond and Lowry, and it seems like an ideal destination for Gordon and Yabusele. All of these smaller moves deserve praise, but they were only possible because of the massive — when you get the Big 3 together, players want to join the party. (And the massive one was only possible because the Sixers were willing to let a bunch of guys walk. On that note, goodbye to Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Buddy Hield, Paul Reed, Cameron Payne and Mo Bamba. Robert Covington remains. unsigned.) The a pair of Sixers’ delegates — No. 16 pick Jared McCain and No. 41 pick Adem Bona — seems like a hell of a lot of fun.

Best case scenario for 2024-25: Philly sends three players to the All-Star Game and finishes the regular season with a top-five offense, top-five defense and the best record in the Eastern Conference, but everyone picks the Celtics to repeat anyway, which makes it a thousand. times sweeter for the Sixers when Embiid bullies Boston in the conference finals en route to their first championship in 42 years, which the man who nicknamed himself The Process punctuates by demanding Sam Hinkie’s presence at the parade upon accepting his Finals MVP award.

Worst case scenario for 2024-25: Philly isn’t going out, exactly, but the vets are all down and, thanks to a series of injuries — and a weird, only vaguely explained absence due to “illness” — the Sixers’ full starting five isn’t playing anymore. than three consecutive games together until April, a situation that allows their fan base to reasonably see a championship up in a team that ends the regular season fifth in the East, only for their dreams to be ruined when, despite Embiid finally being healthy on the right. time, they lose another coin toss series in the first round.

The conversation

Sixers believer: I can’t believe they actually pulled it off! After the Harden trade, I figured the Sixers needed to make their next big move before last year’s deadline, since free agency basically doesn’t exist anymore (for stars, anyway). I was wrong, obviously, but I’m still not sure my thinking was off. I mean, yeah, PAUL GEORGE is way better than anyone they’ll get in exchange for Tobias Harris’ expiring contract and picks, but what were the odds they’d actually get PAUL GEORGE? I simultaneously want to give Daryl Morey all the credit in the world for building the best team of the Embiid era and scream that the whole thing happened because of dumb luck. Why in the world did the Clippers basically hand over PG?

Sixers skeptic: I thought you should be for Sixers. Are you roasting Morey?

Sixers believer: No! I respect Morey. He knew the risk here. There was this amazing outcome, and then there were far more likely outcomes, none of which were even close to amazing. I’m not sure I could go through with it, but I have no choice but to say hello to everyone involved in PG coming to Philadelphia. Shout out to Dr. J!

Sixers skeptic: I’m sure it was Dr. J that sealed the deal, not the four years of max money. wait no maybe it was Lil Dicky. Anyway, now that we’ve established that you’re Morey-stan, I have to ask: Are you sure signing George was even a good move? I understand that it was an impressive move, but is this the front office equivalent of making a contested fadeway jumper? In the era of the second apron, I’m not at all convinced it makes sense to look for a third star, let alone this particular one who will turn 38 during the 2028 playoffs and make $56.6 million that season. I actually applaud the Clippers for drawing a line in the sand, and I think the Sixers would be better off using their cap space to surround Embiid and Maxey with a superior supporting cast. Such an offseason wouldn’t have been as eye-catching, but, as Morey knows, an open corner 3 is preferable to a contested fadeway.

Sixers believer: Congratulations, you’ve galaxy-brained yourself into an analogy so nonsensical that I feel like even responding to it. But I have to, so here it is: The star is the open corner 3! So the NBA works! If given the opportunity to sign some of my favorite role players or sign a genuine star, I take the star every time. Depth is important, sure — and Philly did a fantastic job adding depth after signing George — but the most efficient way for any team to spend its money is on stars. This will be as long as you can only put five players on the court, and, as far as I know, that has not changed in the new CBA.

Sixers skeptic: Hmm, how far did the Phoenix Suns and their Big 3 get last season? I seem to remember pundits praising them for their “smart” minimum signings, so I’d like to wait and see before declaring that the Sixers did a “fantastic” job with theirs. By the way, Eric Gordon was one of Phoenix’s supposed great signings, and the signing of Yuta Watanabe made the signing of Yabu so exciting this summer. There’s truth in what you say about stars and casters — you’d rather have a dollar than four quarters, generally — but the math changes when A) you already have two stars and B) the third destroys yours. flexibility What are Philadelphia’s takeaways if George falls off dramatically in the next two seasons? Replace him with a minimal guy?

Sixers believer: Philadelphia isn’t Phoenix, and this Big 3 isn’t that Big 3. George is the exact type of player the Sixers have needed for years, and it’s weird to entertain the idea that he might not be as good at the end of this that contract. Embiid is an MVP-caliber player right now, and no one knows how long his prime will last. If the Sixers didn’t want to offer George four years, they didn’t get him, so they offered him four years. This is what you do when you’re trying to win a championship. Also, we really don’t need to talk about depth and flexibility like they’re these abstract things that Philadelphia could sacrifice. Check out the actual roster and the actual hat sheet! The Sixers have depth, they have KJ Martin’s contract and they have future picks to trade, which means they do have flexibility.

Sixers skeptic: I’m looking at the roster now. It’s… pretty good! On paper, it’s certainly one of the top five or six rosters in the league, assuming everyone is healthy. I don’t think the Celtics are particularly worried about this Big 3, though, and I wouldn’t pick Philly in a seven-game series against the Knicks or Bucks. If I were a Sixers fan, I would be worried about teams daring Kelly Oubre Jr. and Caleb Martin to shoot and I would worry about the collective age of the second unit. I would also have a hard time watching Embiid and George play in the regular season without fear of one of them getting hurt. Do you have any of these concerns?

Sixers believer: Those are fair worriesi guess, but i could pick similar niches on all the teams you mentioned, even the mighty celtics. (Unlike Philly, they have an injured center to worry about, rather than the concept of an injured center.) And if you’re so worried about a star getting hurt, isn’t it good that the Sixers now have three of them. ? Beyond that, I figured they were probably going to lose Oubre to a team that could pay him more money, but instead they kept him. and somehow stole Martin from Miami. I loved what Lowry brought to the team last year, I love Gordon’s deep 3-pointers and I love that Philly will get some extra possessions when Drummond is on the floor. Maybe you’re right that the defending champs aren’t focused on what the Sixers did in the summer, but I bet Morey and Nick Nurse are constantly thinking about the Celtics. Embiid, George and Maxey should be, too. Philly is coming for them.

Sixers skeptic: Eh, I liked the team better with Butler in his support, but whatever. I’ll let you go back to celebrating Embiid’s new contract extension. I’m sure, in your opinion, there’s zero risk in betting that his body will hold up into his mid-30s.