Identifying value is essential for fantasy basketball drafts, but it’s an inexact science. With that in mind, Rotoworld’s staff has identified some of its “studs” and “fakes” ahead of the 2024-25 season, predicting high- and low-value options projected to go in the early, middle and late rounds of. drafts First up is Raphielle Johnson, who believes a young Raptors star is in for a big 2024-25.
Stud: Scottie Barnes
Before a broken left middle finger ended Barnes’ season in early March, the Raptors forward was an incredible asset for fantasy managers. In 60 games, he accounted for 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.5 blocks, and 1.7 3-pointers in 34.9 minutes, shooting 47.5% from the field and 78.1% from the foul line. Barnes established career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, and free throw percentage, stepping up to show that he is capable of being Toronto’s franchise cornerstone.
The pieces have shifted around him, with Toronto trading OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam during the 2023-24 season, which has resulted in Barnes’ increased fantasy value. He was a top 25 player in 8- and 9-cat formats (per game) providing top 50 value in totals despite the season-ending injury. Add in the security of a max extension, and there’s a lot to like about Barnes in fantasy basketball this season.
DUD: Trae Young
With Dejounte Murray traded to the Pelicans this summer, Young has moved into the first round in many fantasy drafts. On the surface level, I definitely get it. After two seasons in which his usage dipped into the low 30s, that number will increase, perhaps on par with the 2021-22 (34.4) and 2019-20 (34.9) campaigns. However, this is very much an 8 vs. 9 cat situation for me. In formats where turnovers don’t count, or a manager is willing to hit that category, Young stands up very well.
But he averaged 4.4 turnovers per game last season, Young’s highest number since 2019-20 (4.8), and the Hawks point guard has accounted for at least four in each of the last five years. Will the scoring increase to a level where turnovers don’t matter to managers in 9-cat leagues? It’s possible, but the roster change could also affect Young’s field goal percentage. I’m not saying Young can’t offer first-round value, but I believe that expectation may be a bit much.
Stud: Brandon Miller
Because of the play of Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren and Charlotte’s struggles, Miller’s rookie campaign may have been overlooked by some. Finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting, he averaged 17.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 2.5 3-pointers in 32.2 minutes, shooting 44.0% from the field and 82.7% from the foul line. Miller finished ranked just outside the top 100 in 8- and 9-cat per-game value while managing to crack that threshold in totals. What will help him this season are the returns of LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Mark Williams (back).
Having Ball on the court should result in cleaner looks for the entire rotation, in the half court and in transition. As for Williams, his presence in the paint could allow players like Miller to be more active defensively than last season. I don’t expect elite defensive production from the Hornets’ second-year wing, but his steals (he averaged a steal per game after the All-Star break) and blocked shots would improve Miller’s standing in fantasy basketball.
DUD: Michael Porter Jr.
The 2023-24 season has not been easy for Porter, on or off the court. However, his early Yahoo ADP (67.7) feels too high. There is room for a “market correction,” but MPJ only has one top-70 season to his credit (2020-21). Losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope opens up a sizable hole within the Nuggets rotation on both ends of the floor.
The 1.6 3-pointers per game provided by KCP can be replaced, but what about the defense? Porter didn’t offer much value in the steals and blocked shots categories, averaging 1.2 “shares” per game last season (matching his career average). On the plus side, he played 81 games in 2023-24, the first time MPJ topped 65. However, while the rebounding production increased, the scoring decreased. I worry about Porter’s fantasy; I’d rather take a bigger swing in the 6th round of a standard league draft.
Stud: De’Anthony Melton
While there was little concern about Stephen Curry, getting the rest of the Warriors’ backcourt to make sense for fantasy purposes has been a challenge this offseason. With Klay Thompson moving on to Dallas, a sizable hole in the rotation needs filling. Brandin Podziemski replaced the veteran guard in the starting lineup during a stretch last season, and he would appear to be the favorite to fill that void. Add in offseason signings Melton, and Buddy Hield and fourth-year wing Moses Moody, and training camp won’t lack for competition.
Still, even with injuries limiting him to 38 games with the 76ers last season, Melton has long been a favorite among some fantasy managers. He is not the most efficient scorer, shooting 41.0% for his career and 38.6% last season. However, the production in other categories makes him a valuable late-round pick in fantasy leagues. Melton has career averages of 3.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 0.5 blocks; the rebound number isn’t significant, but maybe getting two defensive contributions per game from a role player is nothing to scoff at. If Melton stays healthy (he played 73 and 77 games the previous two seasons), he could be a steal in fantasy basketball.
DUD: Jalen Green
Scoring hasn’t been a problem for Green since he entered the NBA in 2021, averaging 17.3, 22.1, and 19.6 points per game for the Rockets. However, that production didn’t do much for his overall fantasy standing, with last season being the first in which he finished inside the top 150 in per-game value and the top 100 in totals. Last season, in addition to the 19.6 points per game, Green averaged 5.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 2.5 3-pointers while shooting 42.3% from the field and 80.4% from the foul line. The defensive production, or lack thereof, is the biggest problem for Green in league play, but the field goal percentage doesn’t help.
Green’s best stretch last season began in late February, a 20-game run in which he averaged 26.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.4 blocks and 3.7 3-pointers, shooting 46.5% from the field and 82.2 %. of the line. That production was good for a top-25 per-game value in 9-cat formats. However, Alperen Sengun (knee/ankle) only played six games during that stretch and had the second-highest usage among Rockets players (behind only Green). While Green’s play during that stretch was undoubtedly compelling, I’m not sure I trust him in terms of season-long fantasy value. Add in the continued growth of Amen Thompson and the return of Tari Eason, and I have my doubts about Green as a top 100 fantasy player.
