Identifying value is essential for fantasy basketball drafts, but it’s an inexact science. With that in mind, Rotoworld’s staff has identified some of its “studs” and “fakes” ahead of the 2024-25 season, predicting high- and low-value options projected to go in the early, middle and late rounds of. drafts Next up is Noah Rubin, who has some concerns about the Knicks’ starting point guard.
Stud: James Harden
Over the last few seasons, Harden has been part of a few different “big threes.” Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Now? PG and Russell Westbrook are gone, which means a lot of usage has just opened up. Tyronn Lue will have to turn to other players to help, but Harden and Kawhi will have the ball in their hands.
Harden finished just outside the top 25 last season but struggled with his shot down the stretch. He shot 38.5% from the floor over the final two months, which resulted in him barely providing top-75 value in 9-cat leagues during that stretch. Those struggles are worth acknowledging because they show that this is not the same Harden who was a perennial top-10 fantasy player as he was in Houston. However, the opportunity is too good to pass up. He will have a chance to be a first-rounder after seeing one of the lowest usage rates of his career last season. Don’t expect the field goal percentage and turnovers to be great, but he’ll have a chance to shine everywhere else.
Dude: Jalen Brunson
Brunson rose to superstar status at the end of last season, but the roster looks quite different this year. During the final two months of last season, Brunson averaged 31.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 2.9 threes while shooting 47.4% from the floor. That allowed him to produce second-round value during that stretch. His usage and production took a big leap forward with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby sidelined.
While Brunson should still be considered among the elite point guards in the NBA after his performance during the playoffs, fantasy managers should be less optimistic. Randle and Anunoby are healthy, and the Knicks added Mikal Bridges to the mix this summer. Tom Thibodeau will have no trouble playing Brunson for a few minutes, but his usage will still take a hit. His Yahoo ADP goes to him in the late second round, but it feels that his only way to approach that level of production is if several starters go down due to injury.
Stud: Immanuel Quickley
Did everyone pay attention to what Quickley did after joining the Raptors last season? In 38 appearances, he averaged 18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.8 triples per game, which allowed him to be a top-75 player in 9-cat leagues. However, he improved on all of those numbers and finished just outside the top 25 over the final two months of last season, which was an 18-game sample size.
Toronto is healthy entering this season, but Quickley will continue to be the team’s starter. His playmaking may be limited when sharing the ball with Scottie Barnes, but he will have the ball in his hands enough to make a major impact. His college teammate Tyrese Maxey broke out last season, and now it’s Quickley’s turn. He is currently being drafted late in the fifth round in Yahoo leagues, which is a fair place to take him. However, he has the upside to finish much higher in 9-cat leagues, which makes him a great value pick at his current ADP.
Dude: LeBron James
Let’s start by acknowledging who we’re talking about. King James has been one of the best players in the league for two decades. Why would anyone think he would slow down now? This isn’t about LeBron finally feeling his age (although that’s not an impossible scenario). He is coming off a season where he played 71 games, his highest total since leaving Cleveland. He also played 35.3 minutes per game and was a top-20 player in 9-cat leagues.
However, JJ Redick is his head coach now. With a player turning 40 this year, Redick will have to manage him to make sure he’s healthy and rested for the playoffs. That should mean fewer games, minutes and even touches. Leaning on Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, and D’Angelo Russell more during the regular season means James will be fresher for the playoffs, and that’s the goal for this team. LeBron’s Yahoo ADP has him going late in the second round, which would be a best case scenario for him. There’s a good chance he’s just not capable of returning value when drafted this early.
Dude: Grayson Allen
Last season, Allen was one of the biggest surprises in fantasy basketball. He established himself as the fifth starter and Phoenix and had the best season of his career with averages of 13.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 2.7 threes, all of which were career highs. He shot 49.9% from the floor and 46.1% from deep, also career highs. Allen provided fifth-round value in 9-cat scoring formats, though that may have overstated his rounded numbers.
So why shouldn’t managers be so interested in him? It wasn’t that Allen just had the best shooting season of his career, but it was significantly better than any other year. When that happens, those numbers tend to be outliers, not the norm. At least some regression should be expected this year, although it wouldn’t be surprising if his percentages dropped significantly. Also, he played 33.5 minutes per game, which should take a hit this year. The Suns added Tyus Jones with the intention of starting him at point guard, which means Allen should be the odd man out who gets pushed to the bench. A decline in opportunity and production is a recipe for disaster for a player who shocked the world with his production last year.
Stud: Dyson Daniels
After spending his first two seasons with the Pelicans, Daniels’ situation took a turn for the better this summer. He was sent to Atlanta as part of the trade package for Dejounte Murray, and his competition for minutes looks quite different. He was sometimes stuck behind CJ McCollum and Herb Jones and shared minutes with Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado. In 22.3 minutes per game, he finished just outside the top 150 last season, though most of that production came from his 1.4 steals per game.
Now, he’ll get a fresh start with the Hawks. He will have a good chance to start at shooting guard, which should help him play at least 28 minutes per game. That should be enough time for him to be among the league leaders in steals, and he should also be able to chip in some decent rebounds and assists. The main question he will have to answer will be on the offensive end. Can he take a step forward as a shooter? Last season, he shot 44.7% from the floor, 31.1% from deep, and 64.2% from free throws. Those are suboptimal numbers, and they will stand out even more as he plays more minutes. If Daniels can knock down the open 3-pointers that Trae Young creates for him, he will have a chance to be elite in fantasy this season.
