NBA general managers expect the Boston Celtics to repeat as NBA champions and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win his first MVP award.
Those are pretty safe options, but that’s the norm for the annual NBA GM poll, which is now out (credit to John Schuhmann of NBA.com for assembling the list). Be careful using it for predictions, the GMs get it wrong more than you might expect, but it’s a great snapshot of the conventional wisdom around the league. Here are some of the highlights.
• Boston Celtics to repeat as champions. Boston won the title last year and returns their top seven players, so it’s no shock that the Celtics received 83% of the GM’s votes to repeat as NBA champions. The Oklahoma City Thunder got 13% and the Dallas Mavericks just 3%. No GM wanted to name the Knicks or 76ers to knock off the Celtics.
• Celtics to earn top seed in East. Boston lapped the field last regular season, so it’s fair to think they can do it again (even if Kristaps Porzingins is out until around Christmas). The projected top six in the East (in order): Celtics, Knicks, 76ers, Cavaliers, Bucks, Magic.
• Thunder to earn top seed in West. Oklahoma City was the surprise top seed a season ago, then upgraded this offseason with Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, meaning this pick wasn’t a shocker. The projected top six in the West (in order): Thunder, Timberwolves, Nuggets, Mavericks, Suns, Grizzlies.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP. SGA finished second in the voting a year ago and will be the head of the snake in a Thunder team projected to come from the West, making him a logical choice to win the award. Luka Doncic finished a close second in the voting, then there was a fall to a tie between Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Jayson Tatum. This is one GM vote that tends to be predictive, as evidenced by Nikola Jokic being the pick a season ago.
• Victor Wembanyama a player a vast majority of GMs would sign if starting a franchise today. This kind of apparent incomprehensibility, and the surprise is not Wemby getting 77% of the vote, it’s that 33% went the other way. Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic each received 10% of the votes to tie for second.
• Luka Doncic is the player who forces the most training adjustments. This is shaping up to be a great list of players who break the mold, don’t always fit within NBA conventions, and force coaches to make changes – and a 6’8″ pick-and-roll wizard with elite passing skills and the ability to score. level will do that The voting on this one was close: Doncic got 33%, Stephen Curry 30%, and Nikola Jokic 23%.
• Oklahoma City had the best offseason. While many fans leaned toward Philadelphia in this vote, league GMs applauded the two perfect, less splashy moves by the Thunder to bring in Caruso and Hartenstein — two players who fill specific needs on this roster. Philly came in second in the GM voting, with the Knicks third.
• Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks is the most surprising move of the offseason. Since this trade stunned Towns himself, it should come as no surprise that it won this GMS league vote. Paul George to Philadelphia was second (and George was voted an acquisition likely to make the biggest impact), with DeMar DeRozan to the Sacramento Kings third and Mikal Bridges to the Knicks fourth.
• Rockets Reed Sheppard to win Rookie of the Year. Summer League standout Reed Sheppard won the GM vote, with Zach Edey of the Grizzlies second (he’ll start and get more run time than most rookies), and Stephon Castle of the Spurs was third. Sheppard also won the vote for which player of that class would be the best in five years, with Castle second.
• Victor Wembanyama named best defensive player in NBA. He’s only entering his second season but Wembanyama is such a force on the defensive end, he’s already getting this vote and is the betting favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. The GMs voted for Jrue Holiday of Boston like the best perimeter defender in the league. The GMs also voted Giannis Antetokounmpo the most versatile defender in the league.
• Erik Spoelstra was voted the best coach in the NBA. This is becoming an annual tradition, and Spo received 69% of the votes this season. Spoelstra was also voted the best motivation of people by the GMs. Mark Daigneault of the Thunder was second on the coaching list, with Steve Kerr third.
• Indiana Pacers voted the funnest team to watch. Everyone likes high-tempo basketball, at least for entertainment value. Second on that list was the Thunder, followed by a third-place tie between the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets.
• Los Angeles Lakers voted the hardest team to predict. The Lakers have two of the four best players from Team USA’s gold medal-winning squad at the Paris Olympics, but there’s a healthy drop-off to the team’s next few players, not a lot of depth and a lot of healthy questions. The Lakers could make the top six and avoid the playoffs or miss the postseason altogether and GMs weren’t sure what to do with them. Next on that list was a second-place tie between the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans, with the Phoenix Suns fourth.
