The NBA season starts next Tuesday, so fantasy basketball draft season is in full swing. Sleepers and busts drive the conversation. Alex Barutha and Kirien Sprecher analyzed Yahoo ADP data and put together their All-Fades team for the 2024-25 season. This is who they avoid on draft day.
Fantasy Basketball Busts: All-Fades Team
Joel Embiid76ers (C)
ADP: 8.1
The reports from Philadelphia during training camp should have all fantasy managers concerned. Embiid missed the entire preseason and is not practicing with the team while focusing on an individual intensity plan. To be as close to 100 percent for the playoffs, the former MVP is expected to take all the necessary precautions during the regular season, including sitting out at least half of each back-to-back (Philly has 14 B2B this season) and wearing a brace on his left knee when available.
Embiid has played more than 60 regular-season games just four times in his eight-year career and has never made more than 68 appearances in a single season. In three of the four seasons he didn’t crack the 60-game threshold, Embiid finished outside the top 40 in eight-category settings. We don’t even know if Embiid will play on Opening Night against the Bucks, coupled with the fact that he’ll be sitting out B2Bs, it’s nearly impossible to justify taking him in the top 50 this season.
Kawhi LeonardScissors (F)
ADP: 45.1
After a relatively healthy campaign for the oft-injured power forward, Leonard missed the final eight games of the 2023-24 regular season and six of the Clippers’ eight postseason games due to inflammation in his surgically repaired right knee. Despite optimistic updates, Leonard had to leave Team USA before the Paris Olympics this summer because he was not healthy enough to play, and there were no reports of him participating in on-court contact work during training camp.
Coach Ty Lue implied that Leonard will not be ready for the start of the regular season, but the team has not yet released an official update. Even if Leonard is eligible to play, fantasy managers should expect significant restrictions, limiting his overall upside. There are certainly safer, higher picks around pick 40.
Lauri MarkkanenJazz (F)
ADP: 30.3
Markkanen has missed significant time in March and April of the past two seasons — just when managers need him most for the fantasy playoffs. Utah tanked towards the end of those campaigns, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they did it again in 2024-25. The Western Conference is a gauntlet, and they project to be the second worst team on that side of the country, just ahead of the Trail Blazers.
Markkanen is also more valuable in a category format than a point format, as a huge part of his fantasy profile is being an effective volume shooter. That efficiency doesn’t matter in points leagues. And he’s very build-specific in category formats. His combined assists, steals and blocks were 3.3 over the past two seasons. Managers aiming for those stats shouldn’t even think about drafting him.
Managers building a build focused around efficient scoring, rebounding and/or three-pointers can certainly find a use for Markkanen. But his late-season shutout risk and hyper-specific stat profile make him fade away for me in most contexts.
Mikal BridgesKnicks (G)
ADP: 54.8
Depending on how you look at what Cam Thomas did last year, Bridges goes from being either the #1 or #2 option on the Nets to being the clear #3 option on the Knicks this year. Perhaps he will make up for a potential drop in scoring by being more efficient. Perhaps he will increase his defensive deflections back to his early career numbers. But I could also see a drop in rebounds and assists in this lineup.
Part of the reason you pay for Bridges is health. He missed one game in his NBA career. He still only ranked 41st last year in total category value while throwing turnovers. And he ranked 74th in fantasy points per game (32.6). If you take him around pick 55, I think you’re grabbing him at his relative ceiling.
While I’m generally short on Bridges this year, some of this comes down to knowing your format. I’m definitely against him at pick 55 in point ties. In category formats, if you’re looking for efficient scoring and steals, he fits the bill. Otherwise, I’m looking for more upside.
Bradley BealSuns (G)
ADP: 72.9
In the most boring take on fantasy basketball of all time, I’m fading Beal this season. But that’s even considering his ADP. Beal’s production took a significant hit last year while playing with the Suns, and he failed to stay healthy again. I don’t count on either of those two things changing.
Beal ranked 51st per game in punt turnover category value, and his 32.9 fantasy points per game ranked 71st. Even if he miraculously played all 82 games, he may not return value in point formats. It would also be borderline in some category connections. His upside is almost entirely dependent on Kevin Durant or Devin Booker suffering serious injuries, forcing the ball into Beal’s hands for huge stretches.
If you’re in a bracket format and targeting efficient scorers, I can see the argument for drafting Beal nearby to this range – maybe pick 80. He scored 18.2 PPG on 51.3 FG% and 81.3 FT% last year. But in almost any other condition, I don’t think about Beal until closer to pick 90.
Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy
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