Welcome to the Fantasy Vibe Check, your place to vent about the highs, lows and head-scratchers of the NBA and fantasy basketball. We don’t have a lot of data to refer to when dealing with the wins or airing complaints, but it’s been a week, and that’s enough to talk about some players and their performances. Check out who I’m vibing with and let me know in the comments or @DanTito what got you excited, crazy and curious about fantasy basketball.
🙌 I’m excited about Cam Thomas getting superstar treatment
Thomas emerges as one of the top scorers in the league. He was one of my favorite breakouts coming into the season because of the sheer opportunity as the primary offensive threat for a rebuilding Nets squad. Through three games, no one expected him to be 12th in per-game value in 9-category formats or 18th in scoring league (43.98 fantasy points per game).
What the numbers say
The 32% usage of Thomas is in the top-10 in the NBA through the first week of the season. Additionally, Thomas’ shot volume is increasing, attempting more than 21 shots per game and hitting them at a 48% clip through three games. As part of that, he has increased his three-point attempts and is going to the line close to seven times per game. The efficiency gains are the main drivers of Thomas’ fantasy success so far, so the bigger question is whether it can hold. Well, for one, I’m encouraged by the coach to talk. There was no greater advocate in helping Tomaso mature into a well-rounded and effective player than HC Jordi Fernández.
“I want to see the growth with Cam Thomas, we’re going to give you the ball because we know your superpowers (scoring), now can you do it effectively, I want to see him get better” – Jord Fernandez on CT
never heard such belief from Nash & especially Jac Vaughn until CT pic.twitter.com/ddqzltWDbI
– Jeri Tsai (@JeriTsaiNets) October 28, 2024
Also, I’ll be paying close attention to see if the Nets initiate more offense with Thomas, with Ben Simmons ruled out on Tuesday. So far, every lineup that Thomas and Simmons have played together for more than five minutes has resulted in a negative plus-minus and -4.2 net ratingaccording to Pivot Fade. Thomas’ playmaking is the area of improvement I was most hyped about coming into the season, so if Simmons’ ball handling can go to Thomas more often, it will raise Thomas’ ceiling beyond a high-volume scorer. Either way, if you drafted Thomas in the middle, you get an exceptional ROI.
😡 I’m mad about Amen Thompson’s regression
Continuing the theme of evaluating explosions, Thompson goes differently than expected. He averaged 12.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.8 shares with 55/40/44 shooting splits in 22.8 minutes per game in a promising preseason. Through four regular-season games, everything dropped except his free throw percentage (76%). Thompson is trending down as fantasy managers made him one of the more popular drops on Tuesday.
What the numbers say
Thompson’s biggest fantasy obstacles were inefficient shooting, turnovers and a lack of stocks. I was high on Thompson because even if he kept a bench role at 20 minutes per game, he was still a rosterable player given his per-minute production. Let’s go to the shooting. I’m not so concerned about the drop in efficiency because he makes good shots (for the most part). Thompson is 73rd percentile in the frequency of attempts on angle 3s and 85th percentile in the frequency of attempts in the paint. That way Thompson will maximize his offensive production – easy buckets near the rim and being a ready corner threat. We saw an improved jump shot and confidence from the corner on Monday night.
As for the turnovers, he gave up the ball eight times against Memphis and three times against San Antonio. If he continues to commit three turnovers per game, he will be benched. Given his defensive upside, I don’t see that happening, so we can chalk that up to some early season mistakes.
Defensively, Thompson’s steal rate is down from last season, but his blocking goes up to last year’s production. Obviously he’ll need more than three shares in four games to be rosterable, but I’d continue to hold because the upside remains high. If the preseason was any indication, the second-year pro is in a slump but still has big upside with an improved jumper in addition to his plus rebounding at his position and defensive skills.
🤔 I wonder what is really going on with Joel Embiid?
The only update we got on Joel Embiid was:
What the #%^!
I have nothing. I still wonder why the Sixers were great with Embiid playing in the Paris Olympics after working through so many injuries last year and throughout the postseason. If staying healthy is the priority, why don’t you use the summer to rest and rehabilitate? Embiid has reportedly lost a good amount of weight (a good thing), but we’re one week into the NBA season, and we’ve yet to hear a peep about a possible return for their star player.
Is he in game shape? What does the escalation process look like? All we’ve heard is that he is progressing. Unfortunately, this is the risk fantasy managers took when drafting Embiid. We know he doesn’t play back to back. We know he will be loaded. However, this holding pattern is brutal, and fantasy managers need to understand where he stands healthily. Time will tell.
