Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll delve into some of the league’s biggest storylines to determine if trends are based more in fact or fiction going forward.
[Last week: Is home-court advantage in the NBA’s regular season dead?]
Fact or Fiction: The NBA needs more 3-point specialists
Last week, when we addressed the impact of increased 3-point shooting on home field advantage, I reached out to Ryan Bernardoni (a.k.a. Dan Gercart 😉), who preached 3-point shooting as a more accurate indicator of who will win a game, and we got into a side conversation: If the team that makes more 3s wins two-thirds of the time, does the NBA accept more 3-point specialists?
Take Milwaukee Bucks wing AJ Green, for example. He is an undrafted free agent out of Northern Iowa, where he shot 38% on seven 3-point attempts per game over four seasons. He’s been in Milwaukee’s system the last two years, playing on the fringes of the rotation, shooting 41% from range on 11 attempts in 36 minutes as the Bucks outscored opponents by 1.2 points per 100 possessions.
However, to start this season, he was out of the rotation, even receiving a “DNP coach’s decision” in the sixth game of the campaign, as Milwaukee started 1-5. Playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks head coach Doc Rivers started Green for a team-high 34 minutes off the bench. Green finished 7-of-9 from 3 and +5 in a game that his team lost by two to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the last undefeated team of the league.
Green has been a mainstay of the rotation since then, and Milwaukee has won three of its last five games, outscoring opponents by 2.5 points per 100 possessions in the sharpshooter’s limited minutes off the bench.
Now, 1.2 points per 100 possessions might not sound like a lot, but over the course of a full season it’s the baseline for a playoff team. And for a bench unit, it’s even better. If the Bucks can sustain leads for 20 minutes a night with a guy making less than 2% of the salary cap, why aren’t more teams doing it?
You saw it in Boston, where the Celtics spent two seasons working Sam Hauser into the rotation, unleashing him for 22 minutes a night last season when the Celtics outscored opponents by a team-best 14.2 points per 100 possessions in his minutes. Another undrafted four-year college product, Hauser has never shot below 40% from 3 at any level (although he is shooting 33% early this season).
Isaiah Joe is another. The second-round pick spent two seasons in Philadelphia, where Rivers rarely played him, even as the 76ers outscored opponents by 1.3 points per 100 possessions in his minutes. This was a guy who shot 38% on nine 3-point attempts per game in two seasons at Arkansas. The Oklahoma City Thunder picked Joe off waivers in 2022 and immediately decided to play him. Over the past three seasons, the Thunder have outscored opponents by 6.7 points per 100 possessions in Joe’s minutes.
Defense was the concern for flamethrowers. Will they be forced into action, changed to some of the best ball handlers in the world? They will, but anyone who watched Hauser en route to the title last season can tell you that he withstood the onslaughts better than we expected. His size (6-foot-8) certainly helps.
The data tells us that a shooter’s 3-point shooting — the marks, plus the spacing they generate — outweighs any defensive deficiencies. Our search yielded 48 players over the past five seasons who: a) were drafted outside the top 20; b) make less than 2% of the salary limit; c) cracked rotation; d) took five 3-pointers per 100 possessions; and e) did 40% of them. They outscored opponents by an average of 1.5 points per 100 possessions from the bench and played for teams that won an average of 48 games.
The question then: Do great shooters make great teams, or do great teams make great shooters? After all, teams loaded with high-priced talent are more likely to require a cheap shooter to fill out a rotation, and a cheap shooter is more likely to succeed in that rotation when surrounded by high-priced talent. It’s a question that may not have a definitive answer and doesn’t really need one, because if a great team can not only tread water but breathe easier with one of these players on the field, that’s all that matters.
Perception is why many shooters never get a fair shot. Pull him for his first defensive miscue, and he never gets into a rhythm. Coaches may not consider that the math inevitably leans toward victory. But they should. Play a hired gun 15-20 minutes a night so he can shoot a handful of 3s, knock down a few and tilt the count in your favor because, again, the team that makes more 3s wins 67% of the time.
Duncan Robinson was one of these guys. The undrafted free agent shot 45% on eight 3-point attempts per game in his second season, helping the Miami Heat to the 2020 NBA Finals. He signed a five-year, $90 million deal in 2021, and his value suffered. That playoff net rating (1.2 points per 100 possessions!) wasn’t worth all that much when it kept the Heat from paying for harder-to-find contributions.
The Celtics and Thunder paid Hauser and Joe half of what the Heat gave Robinson. We’ll see if they meet that value or if they’re the first to go after big luxury taxes come due for two of the league’s best teams. Boston essentially drafted its Hauser replacement, selecting Baylor Scheierman, who shot 39% on six 3-point attempts per game in five collegiate seasons, with the final pick of the first round.
And that’s the thing: These guys aren’t that hard to find. Last season alone the NCAA produced 23 players 6-foot-6 or taller who shot better than 40% on five or more 3-point attempts per game. One of them, Jaylen Wells, was taken in the second round by the beleaguered Memphis Grizzlies, who give him 26 minutes a night, and he rewards them with a pair of 3-pointers per game on 37% shooting.
Another six G League regulars are 6-7 or taller and shot better than 40% last season on eight or more 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. Matt Ryan is shooting 40% on 9.4 3-point attempts per game over three G League seasons. That’s why he continues to receive calls from the NBA, including last week from the New York Knicks, only none of his previous teams committed to playing him 15 minutes per game.
Ryan came closest last season, averaging 13.9 minutes per game for the New Orleans Pelicans. He shot 45% on 8.4 3-point attempts per 36 minutes, and when he was on the court they outscored opponents by … 1.4 points per 100 possessions. Will Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau, known for sticking to his guns, play his newfound shooter enough to bend the math even more in favor of his eighth-rated bench?
Because the math says it works. As much as you might not want another player who shoots a ton of 3s and plays half the defense, it worked in theory and practice. Maybe not for everyone but on average over time. You might not be able to find a sprawling 3-and-D wing for less than $3 million, but you can find a sprawling Enough-3s-That-The-Defense-Is-Passable wing and likely develop a replacement behind him.
Determination: A fact. The NBA needs more 3-point specialists.
