Ramp to Camp: Predicting the Celtics’ 2024-25 win total originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The 2023-24 Boston Celtics posted the fourth highest win total in team history. So what did this band have planned for an encore?
For the fifth installment of ours Ramp to Camp 2024 series, we gave our panel an end-of-the-week setup: Give us a win total prediction for the Celtics and where they finish, ranking wise, in the East.
(Check the first four installments of Ramp to Camp here.)
Not surprisingly, our panel is quite bullish on the Celtics sticking with the East. But their record predictions suggested the win total could slip back from last season. Boston amassed 64 wins during the 2023-24 campaign, trailing only teams from 1972-73 (68 wins), 1985-86 (67), and 2007-08 (66).
But half of our panel sees the Celtics’ win total rebounding substantially this season. Their reasoning is sound: no Kristaps Porzingis to start the seasona strengthened Eastern Conferenceand a fight against complacency when the ultimate goal cannot be reached until June.
History, too, would suggest a possible dip. In 1973-74 the Celtics won only 56 games while in 1986-87 the Celtics won 59.
But for us, the 2008-09 Celtics are an interesting comp. And that group offers a road map to maintain a high winning total.
Like the 2007-08 group, these Celtics won a title in their first season after assembling an elite collection of talent. Both teams brought back very similar rosters (that 2008-09 squad lost James Posey but had the same starting five of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins).
A 19-game winning streak had that 2008-09 team at a staggering 27-2 heading into a Christmas Day showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers. Boston was 41-9 after another 12-game winning streak extended into early February, putting the team on a 67-game winning streak before the All-Star break.
Disaster struck in late February when Kevin Garnett injured his right knee in Utah. He sat out the next 13 games before attempting to return in late March. He ended up sitting out the rest of the season. The Celtics lost a seven-game series to the Magic in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
As much as the 2007-08 Celtics are romanticized for raising Banner 17 right after the acquisitions of Garnett and Ray Allen, there is a case to be made that the 2008-09 squad was even better. If Garnett doesn’t get hurt, it’s fair to wonder if the Celtics challenge the franchise win total record and maybe even win another title.
That’s our long way of saying that the 2024-25 Celtics don’t necessarily have to take a big step back with their win total this season. Not having Porzingis out of the gates isn’t ideal but this team knows how to win without him. This team can also capture the continuity and chemistry of last season with potential to hit the ground running again this year.
Buoyed by that 2008-09 team, we throw the Celtics 62-20 and another first place finish in the Eastern Conference. It’s a slight step back but would still be the top 10 win total in franchise history.
They will need to show the same mental toughness that last year’s group did in avoiding losing streaks, but the talent is too great not to return to the 60-win plateau.
Here are the rest of our panel’s predictions:
John ThomasColumnist: 58–24 (first in East)
Tom GilesMulti-platform host: 61-21 (first)
Mark Hazlett, Multiplatform producer: 57-25 (T-1st)
Darren HartwellManaging Editor: 59-23 (first)
Justin LegerOnline Producer: 60-22 (first)
Nick GossOnline Producer: 61-21 (first)
Kevin Miller, VP, Content: 56-26 (first)
