The Aaron Rodgers experiment was a failure. Rodgers was supposed to be the missing piece to not only end a playoff drought that began in 2011, but make the New York Jets. Super Bowl contenders when he was acquired by the Green Bay Packers in the days leading up to 2023 NFL Draft. The Jets sent the Packers a 2023 first-round pick (13th overall), a 2023 second-round pick, a 2023 sixth-round pick and a conditional 2024 second-round pick in exchange for Rodgers and a 2023 first-round pick (15th). general election).
A left Achilles tear four offensive plays into Rodgers’ first game with the Jets derailed the 2023 season. This season has been more disappointing with Rodgers play. Coach Robert Saleh was fired five games into the season due to a 2-3 start. Jets owner Woody Johnson was reportedly in favor of benching Rodgers after the 10-9 Week 4 loss to the Denver Broncos.
General manager Joe Douglas, who was a lame duck with an expiring contract, recently suffered the same fate heading into the Week 12 bye as the Jets lost five of the six games following Saleh’s departure to fall to 3-8. The Jets will be hard pressed to match 2023’s seven wins with 2021 second overall pick Zach Wilson, who was a colossal blowout at quarterback after Rodgers got hurt.
Statistically, Rodgers is having a similar season to his last with the Packers in 2022 when his 91.1 passer rating and 217.4 passing yards per game were his worst marks since becoming a starter in 2008. The future first-ballot Hall of Famer also had 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and a 64.6 completion percentage. That was considered a down year by Rodgers’ standards as he came off back-to-backs NFL MVP seasons and the Packers missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018.
Rodgers, who turns 41 on Dec. 2, completed 63.4% of his passes for 2,242 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions to post a career-low 88.9 passer rating this season. He is on track to throw 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions averaging 222 passing yards per game. Rodgers hasn’t had a 300-yard passing game since Week 14 of the 2021 season.
Rodgers indicated last week that he wants to continue playing in 2025. He probably doesn’t want his illustrious career to end on such a bad note where he tries to redeem himself next season. Rodgers is scheduled to make a non-guaranteed $37.5 million in 2025 on a $23.5 million salary cap hit.
The Jets inherited the same problem the Packers will have if Rodgers is retained beyond the 2022 season, but to a lesser degree, because the renegotiated contract he signed in 2023 after the trade has two option bonuses, just like his. 2022 deal with Green Bay.
Option bonuses are prorated over the life of the contract (up to a maximum of five years), including the option years, beginning in the contract year when the option is exercised. From a salary cap standpoint, the assumption is option years will be picked up.
The Packers had $40,313,570 of dead money, a salary cap payment for a player no longer on a team’s roster, in 2023 related to Rodgers after the trade. The dead money would have jumped to $68.205 million by parting with Rodgers in 2024 due to a $58.3 million payment (ie option bonus) required in 2023 to exercise an option for a 2025 contract year. Cutting ties with Rodgers in 2025 would have increased the dead money to $76,803,334 with the second option being exercised in 2024 to pick up a 2026 contract year making a $47 million payment to him.
Age is catching up with Rodgers. The next head coach and general manager shouldn’t want to start a new regime with a declining 41-year-old quarterback.
The Jets will have $49 million in dead money if Rodgers is not with the Jets in 2025. The most likely method of Rodgers’ departure will be to release him as he has no intention of retiring. Rodgers’ consent will be required to trade him to another team, assuming the Jets can find a taker, because his contract contains a no-trade clause.
The $49 million would come from: (1) Rodgers’ fully guaranteed $35 million in 2023 roster bonus prorated on the salary cap at $7 million each year from 2023 to 2027 and (2) a $35 million payment to exercise an option for his contract year from 2028 pro rata. on the salary cap at $7 million annually from 2024 through 2028. The roster bonus would amount to $21. million of the 49 million USD while the other 28 million USD would be from the option bonus.
The dead money could be spread over two years rather than being taken up entirely in 2025 with the use of a post-June 1 designation. A team can release two players each league year before June 2 using a post-June 1 designation that will be treated under the salary cap as if released after June 1. With a post-June 1 designation, a team is required to carry the player. full cap number until June 2 even though he is no longer part of the roster. The player’s salary comes off the books at that time unless it is guaranteed.
Only the current year’s bonus ratio counts toward the cap with players released using a name after June 1st. The acceleration of the bonus ratio in future contract years is delayed until the following league year, which typically begins in early to mid-March.
The Jets would collect $9.5 million of 2025 cap space using a name after June 1. The 2025 dead money would be $14 million ($7 million from 2025 roster bonus ratio and $7 million from 2025 option bonus ratio). There would be $35 million of dead money in 2026 consisting of $14 million in a name ratio from the 2026 and 2027 contract years and the $21 million in an option bonus ratio from the 2026 through 2028 contract years.
The Jets’ cap cost for Rodgers would be $25.5 million more than his 2025 cap number by taking the entire $49 million dead money hit in 2025. It’s feasible because wide receiver Davante Adams, who was acquired from the Las Vegas Raiders in October, is likely won Will not return in 2025 without Rodgers. Adams has the largest 2025 cap number for a non-quarterback at $38,340,666. Trading or releasing Adams would free up $29,997,999 of 2025 cap space leaving the Jets with $8,362,667 in dead money stemming from a contract restructuring that occurred immediately after his trade.
Economically, it makes more sense for the Jets to move on from Rodgers after this season. The dead money gets worse if the Jets bring Rodgers back in 2025 under his existing contract. Picking up the second option in Rodgers’ contract for a 2029 contract year requires another payment of $35 million. Rodgers’ unprotected $37.5 million 2025 base salary will drop to $2.5 million in the process. There is an unusually long window to exercise this option, which extends until the day before New York’s first regular-season game in 2025. This $35 million option bonus will be prorated against the salary cap at $7 million each year from 2025 to 2029.
The Jets would be fighting $63 million in dead money with Rodgers leaving after the 2025 season. With use of a post-June 1 designation, the Jets would have $21 million in 2026 dead money composed of the $7 million 2026 roster bonus ratio, $7 million first option bonus ratio and $7 million 2026 second option bonus ratio. There would be $42 million of dead money in 2027 consisting of $7 million in roster bonus ratio from the 2027 contract year, $14 million in first option bonus ratio from the 2027 and 2028 contract years and $21 million in second option bonus ratio from the 2027 through 2027. 2029 contract years
Creating a worse salary cap situation in the long run doesn’t make much sense under the circumstances. The decision on Rodgers should be easy given that he is losing his battle with Father Time, the Jets’ disappointing season and the impending regime change. A third season for Rodgers in New York would be more justifiable with him playing at a higher level like Drew Brees did when older. Constantly throwing long-range cap planning out the window was convenient for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when signing Tom Brady to play as a 43-year-old. It was worth it because of the results during his three-year tenure with the Buccaneers. The same cannot be said for the Jets with Rodgers.
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