Week 11 in the NFL was eventful to say the least. The New Orleans Saints won their second straight after firing coach Dennis Allen, Anthony Richardson returned to the lineup and led the Indianapolis Colts to a victory over Aaron Rodgers’ New York Jets, the Chicago Bears had a potential game-winning field goal blocked by the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks upset the San Francisco 49ers.
Then there was that Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills matchup that lived up to the hype. Perhaps the game of the day, however, was Sunday night’s final between Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. That back-and-forth affair had everyone glued to their screens before JK Dobbins’ 29-yard touchdown run secured a 34-27 victory for the Los Angeles Chargers. You have to feel bad for the Cincinnati Bengals. Nothing goes his way.
This week, I want to dive into the NFC South race — which has suddenly gotten interesting — and rank some coaching jobs that are either available, or expected to become available.
1. Is the NFC South race more interesting than we think?
Just a few weeks ago, I thought the NFC South race was over. I congratulated the Atlanta Falcons, who will win the worst division in the NFL by default. You’d think a Kirk Cousins-led team featuring Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts would be worth a playoff spot, but they’ve now dropped two straight games in ugly fashion. The first loss came to a Saints squad that had previously lost seven in a row, and then Atlanta was run off the field in Denver this past Sunday, 38-6. We even saw Michael Penix Jr. to come in and finish the explosion.
The Falcons still have a two-game lead in the division at 6-5, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-6 and the Saints are surprisingly right there at 4-7. Maybe the NFL world removed them after Allen’s shooting, but they are technically right there.
Here’s what you need to consider: The Falcons have a tougher remaining schedule than the Saints or Buccaneers — especially the Bucs. Tankathon says Tampa Bay has the second easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. The only opponent the Bucs will play with a winning record is the Chargers. Atlanta, on the other hand, still has to play the Chargers, Minnesota Vikings and Jayden Daniels’ Washington Commanders.
Can the Bucs make it three games over the final seven? Here’s what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh’s simulations say:
Falcons | 72.2% | 74.0% | 3.7% |
pirates | 22.2% | 28.2% | 2.1% |
saints | 5.4% | 7.1% | 0.4% |
Panthers | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
These numbers surprised me a bit. The Buccaneers face Tommy DeVito’s New York Giants this week, while the Falcons are resting on their bye. Tampa Bay could move to 5-6 on Sunday. Up next for the Bucs are the Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, so the Bucs could potentially be 7-6 entering Week 15. The Falcons will play the Chargers and Vikings when they return to action following their bye. They could possibly be 6-7 entering Week 15.
BetMGM Sportsbook has the Falcons as -500 favorites to win the NFC South, while the Buccaneers are listed at +400. There may be some value there.
2. Which potentially available training jobs are the most attractive?
Most expected the Jacksonville Jaguars to fire coach Doug Pederson, after the 52-6 loss to the Detroit Lions, but it still hasn’t happened. However, it got me thinking. What will be the most attractive coaching gig available this offseason? Who will win the Ben Johnson/Bill Belichick toss? Or maybe you’re a Mike Vrabel kind of guy.
I don’t want to “pre-shoot” anyone, but I think it’s safe to say that a Pederson return in 2025 would be a surprise. The same applies to Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) and Matt Eberflus (Bears). So, here are my rankings of the most attractive coaching jobs this offseason:
5. New Orleans Saints: Many of the Saints’ top contributors are older, and then you have the quarterback question. Derek Carr is under contract through 2026, but maybe there is potential out there in his deal this coming offseason. But then, there is the salary problem. The Saints already are $62.8 million over the projected 2025 cap number. New Orleans does reside in the easiest division in the NFL, but the Saints may be looking at a considerable rebuild.
4. New York Jets: I thought the Jets might have the No. 1 defense in the NFL this season, but they’ve struggled despite having a lot of pieces in place like Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. Then there’s the Aaron Rodgers situation. He wants to keep playing, but hasn’t looked like the elite quarterback he was in Green Bay. New York can’t even be separated from him if it wanted because of his contract. But it’s not like the Jets are looking to oust Rodgers. It seems that he will influence who the new coach will be after the Jets find new GM.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars have their young quarterback under contract, which is a plus. But Trevor Lawrence clearly didn’t live up to that massive extension, and his last two seasons were derailed by injuries. Jacksonville has roughly double the cap space as the Jets head into next year, and could have the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Hopefully Belichick lets us Travis Hunter play on both sides of the ball.
2. Dallas Cowboys: Whether they play well or perform poorly, being the coach of the Dallas Cowboys probably is the premier job in the NFL. From the facilities to the global attention you get, there is no other franchise that really compares. Plus, you have your QB1 and WR1 already in place, and Micah Parsons is likely the next paid one.
1. Chicago Bears: I think the Bears job might be the best available in the NFL this offseason. Entering 2024, many made the argument that no rookie No. 1 overall pick quarterback had ever had a more favorable situation than the one Chicago presented. The front office worked hard to build the defense, and then added a lot of weaponry on offense with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and D’Andre Swift. It’s clear that Caleb Williams has potential. Imagine being the offensive leader to bring this franchise back to prominence.
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