Let this be clear: there is no question who is the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts.
Anthony Richardson is the kind of physical freak in which gamers create Madden 25: 22 years old, 6-foot-4, 244 pounds and with 4.43 speed. The Colts used the number 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to select Richardson, signed him to a $34 million contract and gave him a $21.7 million signing bonus. Indianapolis is invested in Richardson being the future of the franchise.
Meanwhile Joe Flacco is a 39-year-old whose 40th time could be measured by a sundial. His best days, which were very good considering he led the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory in the 2012 season, is well behind him. He signed a one-year, $4.5 million deal with the Colts in the offseason knowing that Richardson was entrenched as the starter.
But, according to the SportsLine Projection Model, Indianapolis is better with its No. 2 quarterback than its No. 1. The model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and exceeds $7,000 for $100 players on top rated NFL picks since its inception, says the Colts with Flacco as quarterback win 8.0 games, win the AFC South 18.1% of the time and make the playoffs 36.2% of the time. By comparison, with Richardson behind center, they win 7.5 games, win the division 12.5% of the time and reach the postseason 25.4% of the time.
Why the difference? According to Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s chief data engineer and the man behind the model, Flacco is exactly what Richardson isn’t (accurate) but is exactly what Indianapolis needs. Flacco is a career 61.6% passer, while Richardson sits at 55.3%. This season Richardson has completed just 50.6% of his passes. He also threw six interceptions, which is tied with Will Levis of the Titans for the most in the league (although Levis threw 21 more passes). Finally, Richardson has a passer rating of 60.2, which ranks second to last in the NFLahead of only Bryce Young of the Panthers (44.1).
“Flacco makes his layups, unlike Richardson who is as accurate 50 yards downfield as he is five yards downfield,” Oh says. “That’s an exaggeration, but you get the idea.”
In the team’s game Sunday against the Steelers, Flacco had to come in for Richardson, who was knocked out of the game with a hip injury. On third downs Flacco went 6-for-8 for 72 yards with six first downs, including two touchdowns. Before Sunday’s game, the Colts had converted just three first downs through the air under Richardson.
Flacco finished the game 16 of 26 for 168 yards and two touchdowns. Indianapolis beat previously unbeaten Pittsburgh, 27-24.
“I think my personality probably lends itself decently to this type of situation,” Flacco says. “It’s like, ‘Don’t overthink it, don’t overdo it. It’s just a game of football. Get out there. If the guy is open, throw it at him and hit him. Just keep it simple.”
Says Colts coach Shane Steichen: “He’s a guy who’s been doing it a long time. He’s gone in there and operated. He’s seen a lot of football, which is huge at that position. He’s gone in and done his job.”
Flacco may have to do the job again for this week’s game at Jacksonville. Richardson is still recovering from the hip injury and did not practice Wednesday. While Steichen says Richardson avoided a “huge, huge injury,” the quarterback’s playing status for Sunday remains up in the air.
“Hopefully Anthony is out there; that’s the plan,” Steichen said Wednesday. “But if [Flacco] have to do it again, we have faith in Joe to go do it.”
As for Week 5, the SportsLine Projection Model calls for a close game between the Colts and Jaguars. However, that game is not one of the two with A grade options based on model simulations. you can find those top Week 5 NFL picks at SportsLine.
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