Two AFC contenders face off under the lights in Baltimore this week as Lamar Jackson and the Ravens host the undefeated Buffalo Bills. The Bills are on a short week after destroying the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night, 47-10. As for the Ravens, Jackson and Derrick Henry led Baltimore to a 28-25 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. Things did get tight late, as Dak Prescott’s offense scored 19 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull within three. Holding double digit leads is something that has been challenging for the Ravens.
The last time Josh Allen and Jackson faced off was actually in Week 4 back in 2022. The Ravens blew a 10-point second-half lead as Buffalo scored 13 unanswered points — including a game-winning 21-yard field goal — to win 23 -20.
This will be a litmus test for both squads, as well as a potential preview of this year’s AFC Championship game. It’s the highest scoring offense against the highest total offense. Let’s break down what promises to be an entertaining matchup, but first here’s how you can watch Sunday night.
Everyone NFL odds is via SportsLine Consensus.
Where to look
Date: Sunday, September 29 | Time: 8:20 pm ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
Channel: NBC | Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Probability: Ravens -2.5 O/U 46.5
Trends
- Ravens are 6-1 against the all-time spread at home against the Bills
- The Under has hit in seven of the last eight prime-time games featuring Buffalo on the road
- The Ravens are 14-7 ATS in overtime games started by Jackson
When the Bills have the ball
Some believed Allen was ready to take a step back without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Turns out he’s fine. He has completed 75% of his passes for 634 yards, 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions so far. Allen now has the most passing touchdowns without an interception through three games in Bills franchise history, and he’s put together back-to-back starts without a turnover for the first time since 2020.
While we don’t know exactly who the new “WR1” is, Allen’s 133.7 passer rating leads the league. It doesn’t matter if he throws the ball to Keon Coleman or Khalil Shakir, Allen is a dangerous player. He puts together long drives, takes care of the football and still makes plays with his legs. That’s why Allen is the MVP favorite right now. With a win against the Ravens, he can tie the longest winning streak by a quarterback in franchise history. The record is nine straight, set by Jack Kemp in 1964. The Ravens statistically have the worst pass defense in the NFL through three weeks, allowing 291.7 passing yards per game, so Allen will have his chances.
While the Ravens are susceptible through the air, they currently have the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL with 50 yards allowed per play. However, Allen’s No. 1 weapon may be running back James Cook. Their 285 yards of scrimmage are tied for number 14 in the NFL, and their 4 total touchdowns are tied for fourth. He’s become one of these dual-threat backs that you have to account for, and is second on the Bills in receiving yards with 97.
When the Ravens have the ball
Death, taxes and the Crows being good at looking after the football. Baltimore has outrushed teams by 460 yards this season and outrushed the Cowboys, 274-51, last week! In that win, Henry recorded his 12th game with 150 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns, which is tied for second all-time.
Jackson has 254 rushing yards this season, which are the most by any quarterback through the first three games of a season in NFL history. He is eighth among all players in rushing entering Week 4. While Henry has gotten off to a slow start with his new team, he is clearly starting to find his groove. This new version of “thunder and lightning” is the first duo to record 250 rushing yards while averaging five yards per rush through three games since 1960. The last duo to do so was Jim Brown and Bobby Mitchell for the Cleveland Browns.
The Bills blew out the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, but running back De’Von Achane had himself a day with 96 rushing yards while averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The Bills must contain Jackson and Henry if they want to win Sunday night.
Another thing to watch for the Ravens is their inconsistency on offense. Building a lead on the Bills will of course be a challenge, but it’s worth noting that Baltimore has 11 losses with a touchdown lead in the fourth quarter since 2020. That’s the most by any team in a five-year span since at least 1991. The Ravens nearly blew a 22- point quarterly lead just last week.
Prediction
The Bills at plus money will be attractive to anyone. After all, Buffalo looked like the best team in the NFL through three weeks. That said, the Bills needed a double-digit comeback to beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, destroyed the Dolphins — who have yet to lead a game with time on the clock this season — in Week 2, and then took care of business against the Jaguars — who looks like the worst team in the NFL — on “Monday Night Football.”
Give me the Ravens at home in prime time, as they are easily the toughest test the Bills have faced this season. Justin Tucker is 0-for-2 on 50-yard field goals this season, but my prediction is that he hits a 50-yarder in the fourth quarter to win.
Projected score: Ravens (-2.5) 24-21 over Bills
Bonus: SportsLine NFL punter Mike Tierney is 48-22-2 over his past 72 picks involving the Ravens, and we can tell you he’s leaning Super in this prime-time showdown against the Bills. Check out who he’s taking against the spread at SportsLine.
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