Making bold predictions is fun as a fantasy analyst because we throw out these wild guesses and hope some stick to the wall. The reality is that many of them won’t, but the predictions should indicate how any fantasy analyst feels about unpopular opinion. If a player is mentioned positively in a bold prediction, the analyst is higher on them than the norm, whether the boldness of that prediction comes true or not. The same applies to the other end of the spectrum. We just hope these bold predictions help steer you in the right direction. That being said, let’s dive into some for the upcoming season!
James Harden Finish as a Top 5 Player
Harden fell to the end of the second round when draft season began, but people are finally coming around. He’s taken early in the second round now, but that still might not be high enough. It seems likely that Harden will return to the Houston usage that made him the top player in fantasy because he is the only true playmaker on the Clippers. Paul George leaving for Philly really added to his value, but Kawhi Leonard dealing with his reoccurring knee injury is really terrible for the Clippers. It’s amazing for Harden’s value, though, averaging 21.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 8.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.9 threes per 36 minutes when PG13 was off the floor. He averaged over 30 points per game when George and Leonard were both out, and it’s encouraging because Harden said he’s in the best shape he’s been in.
Ben Simmons Becoming a Must Player Again
Simmons went undrafted in most 12-team drafts I’ve done, and it’s easy to see why. The Aussie has barely played over the past four years, playing just 57 games since 2021. It’s a sad development for the talented guard as he was one of the best statisticians in the NBA before that. Simmons averaged 15.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.7 steals and 0.7 blocks on 57 percent shooting through his first four seasons. He did that for 34 minutes a night, and we saw similar averages last season. The per-36 averages for Simmons last year came out to 9.1 points, 11.4 rebounds, 8.5 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. That would be a Top 50 player, and it looks like Simmons will start and play 30-35 minutes for the worst roster in the NBA. Even if he only gives us 75 percent of that, Simmons will be the biggest steal at the end of drafts, especially since he costs nothing on draft day!
The Warriors and Suns Will Finish Top 5 in the Western Conference
This wouldn’t have been an unpopular opinion last season, but both of these teams are projected to finish sixth (PHX) and eighth (GSW) in the West this year. Both clubs saw a decline in a disappointing 2023 season, but I’m really encouraged by some of the additions.
Let’s start with the Warriors as they reshuffled the depth of their roster. They parted ways with Klay Thompson but replaced him with guys like Buddy Hield, De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson. That sounds like a net positive as Hield will fill the shooting void left behind, while Melton and Anderson will fill critical bench minutes. They also have some promising young players stepping into more prominent roles, with Trayce Jackson-Davis, Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski looking bright at times last year. That depth is paramount in an 82-game season, and we haven’t even mentioned that Stephen Curry could also be an MVP candidate!
The Suns are another team people sleep on because they frustrated fans last season. It’s funny to say that in a 49 win season because the Suns are averaging 55 wins per game over the last four years! We didn’t even see Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker play much together last season, and that kind of talent is sure to develop together. My favorite aspect is that they added Tyus Jones. This team has been in dire need of a true ball handler for the past few years, and they added one of the best assist-to-switch guys in the NBA! That’s what they needed when they had one of the worst net ratings in the fourth quarter last season, and avoiding those collapses with players like that should help this team see some massive improvements.
The Detroit Pistons Double Their 2023 Win Total
I wish there was more data to back this up because it’s hard to get excited about Detroit after last season. They started the year with a 3-36 record last year and won just 14 games overall. That means they have to clear 28 wins to reach this prediction, which doesn’t seem outlandish. The most important factor for this team is that Cade Cunningham needs to play like a star, which we saw in the preseason. They also have some blossoming youngsters like Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey and Ausar Thompson, but the most important addition is Tobias Harris. He was one of the most effective players during his career, and people forget how amazing he was because of some stupid promotion in Philadelphia. They also added shooters like Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr, who should help as they were 27th in scoring and 29th in three-pointers made last year.
Tyrese Haliburton Finishes Outside the Top 25
Hali has become one of the best passers in the NBA, but he scares me as a Top 6 pick in fantasy. That’s usually where he’s picked right now, but a lot of people don’t consider the prospect of this list. Not only did they trade for Pascal Siakam last season, but they’re also getting more from guys like Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and Benedict Mathurin. When those guys blossomed in the second half of last season, and Siakam did his thing, Hali wasn’t the same guy. In the final 50 games of the season, Haliburton averaged 17.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, 8.9 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Those are solid stats, but you can find guys like that in the third or fourth round of drafts.
