Celtics Mailbag: How will Porzingis’ return affect the rotation? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The surprise return of Kristaps Porzingis on Monday night answered the most popular question to start the Celtics’ 2024-25 season, and if anyone questioned Boston as the favorite to repeat, they maybe got a pretty solid answer theretoo.
But Porzingis’ return creates a new set of questions about how his presence will affect the team on the court, as well as roster usage going forward.
Those questions title our latest installment of the Celtics Mailbag:
With the return of KP will we see the rotation shrink? Less Luke Kornet/ Neemias Queta minutes, or manage Al Horford minutes? – @HevD32 on X
Which of these 3 should get DNP CDs as we stagger Horford and KP for the rest of the year? Xavier Tillman Sr., Luke Kornet, or Neemias Queta. – @trillklinton on X
It’s funny to me how quickly the conversation changes from, “Do the Celtics need to trade for another big man?!” to “How can they play all these big!?”
The Celtics are fortunate enough to have the big man depth that they possess, and while I think it becomes more difficult for some of these depth pieces to see consistent floor time, there will be an opportunity for all of them during the regular season.
Here are some scenarios to look at:
Final rotation games: We’ve seen Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla stick to eight-man rotations in some of the marquee games this season, including Sunday’s visit of the Minnesota Timberwolves and last week’s showdown with the Cleveland Cavaliers. On these nights, if Boston is at full health, two of those three deep pieces almost certainly get DNP’d, and maybe all three if Boston doesn’t need point minutes from another backup big.
Back-to-back games: Even with Porzingis back, the Celtics’ schedule has some busy stretches, especially in January. But Boston also plays five games in seven nights to start December, which is bookended by two back-to-backs.
Presumably, Porzingis and Horford will stagger their rest days — though it will be interesting to see if Boston trots out both bigs for that visit to Cleveland on Sunday — and that will naturally create more opportunity for Kornet, Queta and Tillman. Some of the choices on those nights could be match dependent.
One thing we’re curious to see: With Porzingis back, will the Celtics still elevate Horford to the starting role on nights KP doesn’t play, or will they start someone like Kornet or Queta to maintain the continuity of Horford’s long-term role?
It’s arguably more difficult to play even two of those players on nights when the Celtics have all of their top eight available. However, the season is still long. There will be other illnesses (hopefully minor), and everyone will have a chance along the way.
Credit to Queta, who, after earning a DNP in that Timberwolves game, seemed to really bring the intensity and focus against the Clippers while backing up Porzingis. That might have been Queta’s best all-around night, as he piled up 12 points, nine rebounds, four blocks and three assists as a +29 over 25:17 of playing time. If he plays like this, they will find time for him to be on the court.
Wondering if we’re starting to see a slight decrease in Payton Pritchard’s minutes with Porzingis back in the lineup? PP is currently playing the sixth most minutes on the team with 27.3 per game. – @CelticsFiles on X
Pritchard was at 22.3 minutes per game last season. We broke down the splits, and that number was 21.3 minutes in 57 games with Porzingis compared to 24.4 minutes in the 25 contests without him. So it seems fair to expect perhaps a slight decline.
That said, Pritchard has earned the right to log 25+ minutes per game with his play. Especially since the Celtics are treading carefully with their bigs, I think there’s still plenty of opportunity for him to stay north of that mark. You can also generate more bench time if the starters control their minutes more consistently.
Are the C’s capable of making any trades, and are there any they should consider? – @bpothier on X
Let’s start with some housekeeping: Kornet, Queta and Tillman all become trade-eligible on December 15th. Sam Hauser, after inking an offseason extension, joins that trade-eligible mix on Jan. 21. Technically, Derrick White is trade-eligible in January. , too, but he’s not going anywhere. We should also note that Kornet can technically veto any trade after signing a one-year deal at minimum wage.
I don’t think the Celtics will mess with their chemistry and cohesion with a chance to chase a second title. Heck, it’s hard to envision any moves that make sense for Boston, especially with the limitations they face with the second apron. Harder decisions about the long-term look of this roster can wait until the summer.
The one question we had is with Jaden Springer. The 22-year-old guard carries a $4 million cap hit, which is the eighth-highest salary on the team. Given his limited on-court role, the Celtics would have to be all-in on their development to fulfill a contract that essentially costs $16 million after tax penalties. Springer will be a restricted free agent after the season.
Given the cost of the roster, it may not be important to stomach Springer’s deal. But he’s also one of the few trade chips that could fetch something beyond minimal value at the deadline. Remember that the Celtics cannot add contracts in a trade as a second apron team.
If the Celtics are healthy, it’s hard to see an obvious need. That could change by February, but we wouldn’t be surprised if this is one of Brad Stevens’ quieter deadlines given the priority of keeping this team largely intact.
Should we expect the Celtics’ defense in the paint, and on the offensive end, to improve now with KP’s return, or is it a bigger problem that we’re not seeing? – @JSmall3269 on X
Stealing from our Porzingis story from Tuesday: Boston ranked 24th in the NBA while allowing opponents to shoot 65.6 percent within five feet in its 17 games this season without Porzingis. That number dropped to 51.5 percent in Porzingis’ debut against the Clippers. Boston can gamble more with Porzingis on the backline, and that manifested itself in a combined 21 steals and blocks, the team’s second-highest “stock” output of the season.
Points in the paint are still an obvious problem for Boston — the Clippers won that battle 58-46 Monday night — but we’ll continue to shout from the mountaintop that it’s far more important for Boston to limit 3-point output than. too much stress on internal scoring.
Yes, it’s a problem, and one that should improve with Porzingis’ return. But the Celtics will always do well to give up 2s instead of 3s as they force opponents to deal with the math problem that Boston’s own 3-point barrage presents.
The Celtics ranked ninth in opponent points in the paint last season (47.7). They are currently 26th (53.2). Let’s see what a month with a healthy KP does to that number. But clearly Boston is doing well, even with the sting.
What’s your favorite ShotCreator find so far? – Okay, I came up with this question myself
We are nerds for new NBA stats websites, and ShotCreator.com is a fantastic addition to the landscape, especially with the seamless video integration that makes the NBA’s own archive look like it’s stuck in the Geocities days.
Our favorite dunk stat around the last few days: Derrick White is shooting 78.9 percent on all shots between 8-16 feet this season. That includes shooting 7-of-9 on all floaters, confirming our suspicion that he’s been nearly perfect with that long floater this season (and somehow he’s just 9-of-16, 56.2 percent on all floaters within 8 feet) .
