Champions League bold predictions: Florian Wirtz blows Milan away, Arsenal’s set pieces misfire, more |Max Sporty|

Second week of the Champions League it’s upon us, the league stage serving up a boatload of interesting matches included Bayer Leverkusen’s clash with Milan, The journey from Paris Saint-Germain to Arsenal and a repeat of the European Cup Final in 1982 as Aston Villa host Bayern Munich. Here’s what we look out for:

How to look

Most important+ will have every minute of Champions League action for Matchday 2, while CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network will offer additional coverage. The UEFA Champions League Today pre- and post-match shows will air on both Most important+ and CBS Sports Networkwhile Most important+ will be the home of The Golazo Show and every game on Matchday 2. CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network will each feature select games, while CBS Sports Golazo Network will close out each day’s action with new episodes of Scoreline and the Champions Club.

Wirtz tears through Milan

If a case is to be made that Bayern Munich’s encouraging early season defensive signals are to be believed, it could be based solely on how effectively they have contained Florian Wirtz. With Joshua Kimmich at his hardest and two or three bodies to help him, the Bavarians could hold the Bayer Leverkusen star to just three successful offensive duels from 13, one touch in the box and no shots.

Even then, they couldn’t quite stop Wirtz, who finished with the assist that ensured the defending champions kept in touch with the leading pack at the top of the Bundesliga. It might not have been the most elegant pass the 21-year-old has played — and boy, does he play a lot of them that are easy on the eye — but even this micro assist for Robert Andrich spoke volumes for Wirtz’s remarkable qualities , one touch of his chest enough to position an awkwardly bouncing ball such that he could immediately roll it to the side for his teammate to take a shot before Bayern’s defense could latch on. Another game, another direct contribution to the score. That pretty much characterizes Wirtz this season.

Through eight games in all competitions, Wirtz has seven goal contributions. Especially for a player who has long looked like one of Europe’s best providers, six of those were goals. Early in the season this may be, but given the explosive start the Leverkusen face made to his Champions League debut – two goals in his first 36 minutes – you could be forgiven for thinking this could to be Wirtz’s supernova season. This really could be one where the word young ceases to be applied along with the descriptors of top talent: the best playmaker in Germany, the top attacking talent in Europe.

The reason you can make that statement with such confidence is that Wirtz’s good form in front of the goal dates back a little more than his hitting streak so far this season. In the two-and-a-half campaigns leading up to the start of 2024, the youngster has averaged around 1.6 shots per 90 Bundesliga minutes, a number that has notably dropped as he works his way back from a serious ACL injury. Since the beginning of 2024, that number has risen to just over three. Victor Boniface’s prolonged absence called for someone in Leverkusen colors to step up. Wirtz did just that, delivering so many of the big goals in the slog towards the end of an undefeated domestic campaign.

Of course, the return of Bonifacio means that the shooting output has decreased, but only a fraction all the way through the creative numbers have been kept at the usually remarkable level of Wirtz. Given that his post-shot xG is much higher than his pre-shot xG and his target return even higher than both, it’s fair to question whether any regression is due. There’s also something a little odd about a shot profile that seems to either be precious close-up opportunities or hopeful efforts from range. However, when a player of this quality hits form, it can run and run and run. Milan might regret meeting Wirtz at this point.

Arsenal’s danger is stifled

Another week of Premier League action, another clutch goal from a corner to take Arsenal to a big result. Their 13 shots from dead balls against Leicester City on Saturday — a number that doesn’t include the own goal Leandro Trossard forced on Wilfried Ndidi from a 95th-minute Bukayo Saka corner — was the most they managed in a league game. since the appointment of coach Nicolas Jover in the summer of 2021. In that time only two teams, Brentford and Newcastle, have bettered that tally in one game.

Since the start of last season the Gunners have ranked at or near the top of the English top flight in almost every dead ball metric. They score more, create more xG, give up fewer chances to their opponents (their expected assists allowed from layups is particularly notable) and hit their goals with remarkable accuracy. When they pack their box with behemoths, it’s often a matter of when, not if, they find the net.

Interestingly, this has not translated at all to the Champions League, where 11 games in the competition have yet to bring a goal for the Gunners. The shots and xG are also dipping, from four and 0.4 in the Premier League last season to 2.5 and 0.2 in their continental matches. Some of that drop in production is down to lower inputs, Arsenal certainly didn’t take enough of the striking number of corners on their travels but even that was offset by a few more free kicks from the type of positions where Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice. and Saka can ask questions of defenders.

More than volume or even execution, Arsenal’s problems with dead balls in Europe appear to be one of discipline. In last season’s Champions League, the Gunners led the way in both number of fouls committed in the opposition penalty area (15) and per game average (1.5). Only three forwards – Kylian Mbappe, Victor Osimhen and Jude Bellingham – gave away more free-kicks in that part of the pitch than centre-back Gabriel. Jover’s array of picks, screens and blockers work to devastating effect in the Premier League. When it really works, as in their second goal against Manchester City eight days ago, it sends opponents into apoplexy. Gabriel Martinelli stands his ground in front of Ederson and the goalkeeper both laments a red shirt blocking his route, and knows he will simply be told he should have attacked the cross more. In English football you can always want it more.

The same rules don’t quite apply when the continent’s best officials take charge. Take this example of Arsenal chasing an equalizer against Bayern Munich in last season’s quarter-finals. Gabriel drifts back from an offside position and in what starts as a tight hug with Eric Dier and ends as a six-man ruck. Many Premier League referees would see this as six from one, half a dozen from the others. Instead Arsenal miss a prime chance in the dying minutes of a big game.

A similar thing happened in the previous round against Porto. Master prankster Ben White collides with Pepe, the Goya of the “dark arts” and what appears to be a fairly simple bump between the two ends with… well, I’ve never used the spotlight feature before mocking images. , but this seems appropriate.

Paris Saint-Germain may not have anyone who sells contact to the very back row like Pepe did, but, given their relative lack of muscle, they will be acutely aware that the best way to stop Arsenal’s threat is from corners and free-kicks. is to turn those occasions into free kicks of their own. In due time, a coach of Jover’s caliber will probably find a way to stay within the continental interpretation of the rules and get opportunities for his big guys. So far, though, he doesn’t quite seem to be there.

Village invites Bayern pressure

Here’s a quick conditional to wrap up this week’s predictions. It is, at least, a scenario that makes sense. Suppose that, fueled by a home support made all the more abundant by memories of the 1982 European Cup final, Aston Villa burst out of the blocks in their first meeting with Bayern Munich since that unforgettable night in Rotterdam. Suppose one of Ollie Watkins or Morgan Rogers, the latter in the form of his fledgling career, gets the night off with a bang, an early goal. So what’s going on?

Logic would suggest that Villa go on, press for at least the second. Why not even a third? There would certainly be nothing riskier than sitting in the lead against the likes of Jamal Musiala, Michael Olise and, fitness permitting, Harry Kane. And yet, it’s what Unai Emery’s teams do. Too often their single-minded leaders are not building blocks but shaky foundations, his side intent on clinging to precarious advantages.

At Ipswich Town on Sunday, Rogers and Watkins turned an early deficit into a 2-1 lead inside 32 minutes. During the 40 minutes that followed, Villa took zero shots. No one. Against a team that passed before this weekend, 14 of them gave up for a game. Liam Delap struck again for Ipswich and Villa discovered that allowing half a game to pass them by was not an optimal plan for picking up three points.

This would be fine if it was a coincidence. It isn’t. Already this season Villa, who have traded quite effectively in exciting comebacks, proved a little too willing to gamble on their defense in the latter stages of a win over Everton and a 2-1 win over Leicester where half of their 10 shots came. on their way to Amadou Onana’s 28th minute opener. Last season, two goals against Chelsea after 42 minutes, they registered just one shot before Conor Gallagher equalized in the 81st minute. Go further back in Emery’s CV and you hit the terrifying sight of watching Shkodran Mustafi anchor an Arsenal defense two goals up. It rarely ended well. This, after all, could just be life under Emery. It doesn’t have to be that way. It is though.