Defining Caleb Williams’ success in first season and Week 1 picks: Bears mailbag

Quarterback Caleb Williams might make history for the Chicago Bears one day — maybe even Sunday — but history is going against him in his NFL debut.

It’s not easy for rookie quarterbacks to win in Week 1. Rookie signal callers are 6-17-1 since 2011.

Those 24 quarterbacks combined for a stat line of 33 touchdown passes, 26 interceptions, 654 yards per attempt, a 59.5 percent completion rate and a passer rating of 79.1.

Rookie quarterbacks are on an eight-game Week 1 winless streak, dating back to 2018 when Sam Darnold and the New York Jets won 48-17.

Week 1 results aren’t the greatest indicator of anything, really, as that Darnold result tells us. Season openers can be daunting regardless of who is at quarterback. Teams with rookie quarterbacks starting Week 1 are usually bad, which skews these results. Williams has already shown he’s different, and the supporting cast around him is already setting a unique scenario ahead of Sunday.

Eighteen of those 24 rookie quarterbacks starting in Week 1 were underclassmen. The average point spread was almost a touchdown (6.9 points) against the rookie QBs. Only Carson Wentz’s 2016 team was favored by more than a field goal, per Stathead. Meanwhile, Williams’ Bears were anywhere from 3.5- to 4-point favorites against the Tennessee Titans.

It’s the tug-of-war with Williams that will permeate throughout the season. More than almost any rookie quarterback in recent memory, he is set up to succeed thanks to his skills and the team around him.

But he’s a rookie. It is the underlying kryptonite in any conversation. Or could he be the one, with the right team around him, to replace it?

Now, to your questions.

How do you define success for this season? Nine wins? Beat the Packers? -Jason W.

I’ll let general manager Ryan Poles answer first. He was asked earlier this summer about the importance of making the postseason this season.

“Obviously, getting into the playoffs and winning playoff games would be outstanding, but I think the most important thing is if we can make that big jump from where we were last year to this year, and I think we’re capable of doing that, Poles said.

What does that jump look like? It could be nine wins. It could be beating the Green Bay Packers. A playoff spot would be the clearest indicator of progress and success. That is achievable. But it may not be statistical or in the standings; it will be something we can see and feel.

Is Williams everything the Bruins hoped for? Does Matt Eberflus make the right decisions in games as the head coach and look like the respected leader we saw on “Hard Knocks”? Is new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron the answer at play calling?

It’s possible, though unlikely, to answer yes to all of them and have the Bruins miss the playoffs. It’s possible the Bruins will make the postseason and there will still be questions about the quarterback (see: 2018 Bruins, among others).

Whatever the record, and whatever Williams’ stats, the season will be a success if, come January, we’re talking about a team that in 2025 should be competing for a deep playoff run, the way the Texans were thought to be this offseason. .

Would Velus Jones still be on the roster if he wasn’t a third round pick and drafted by Ryan Poles? – Chi F.

Let’s play my favorite game of two things can be true. Jones’ draft helps him, and it’s not a big deal that he’s on the team either. It’s a place he’s earned.

If Jones had been a sixth-round pick, would there have been as much consternation over his spot on the roster? Would anyone care if Jones was undrafted and simply the kick returner and backup running back? Doubtful

.@VelusJr weaves his way 39 yards for the TD ⚡️

📺: FOX32 pic.twitter.com/stguYQKTGV

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) August 23, 2024

Jones didn’t live up to the expectations of being a third-round pick at wide receiver, period. He was by no means the player Poles were hoping for from an offensive impact perspective. However, in this league, Day 1 and 2 draft picks usually get three years to produce. The Bears see something in him at running back. To his credit, he did a nice job there. Who knows when or if he’ll get a load, but Jones has been the second-best kick returner in football the last two seasons and figures to get a lot more opportunities thanks to the new rule. That’s the #1 reason he’s on the team. Is that the primary role you want for someone who is a third-round pick? Ideally, no, but that’s no reason to cut him if you don’t have someone else better for the spot.

Is it your belief that an extension for Teven Jenkins could be done during the season? – Bryan P.

We’ve heard two things over the past 10 days that will work in Jenkins’ favor. First, he said Wednesday that this is the healthiest he’s ever been before Week 1. That’s critical for him given his injury history.

Adding to that, Poles said that Jenkins is “playing his best ball.” Now, that was training camp and the preseason. He apparently has the next six games to continue that — stay healthy, stay dominant — and maybe something will be done by the bye week, which is when Jenkins said the two sides will talk again — at the earliest.

If Jenkins plays at a high level and stays on the field and not on the injury report, it makes sense to do so in season. The Bears would save money by extending him before he hits the open market.

Tennessee has made multiple changes this offseason on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, with very little tape showing a complete picture. How does the Bears coaching staff work to set the players up for success against the Titans? – Meng J.

Defensive coordinator Eric Washington said this week that they expect to see something similar to what the Cincinnati Bengals did — Titans head coach Brian Callahan has been the Bengals’ offensive coordinator the past five seasons. The studies can start there.

“You do your due diligence against the background of the play caller,” Washington said. “And you have to look at all the members of the staff and what they were likely to contribute and what their backgrounds and fingerprints were in terms of what they specialized in the areas they trained.

“There’s no guarantee that this coach is going to Xerox what they did in Cincinnati and present it to us. He’s going to have his own ID and spin on what he’s done and our focus will continue to be on us. We have rules, we have a process that we feel like we’re going to line up and introduce ourselves to whoever we’re playing against.”

On the other side of the ball, Waldron talked about watching what Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson did last year with the Baltimore Ravens, and previously on the staffs of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jets. There is Todd Bowles influence on the training of Wilson. But it will still be a bit of an unknown until Sunday afternoon.

The message to the players?

“Something we say is, ‘we don’t hunt ghosts,'” Williams said. “So we don’t hunt ghosts of things that they may run, they may not run. We’re kind of going away from things that we’ve seen, some of the basic things that we do know.”

Looking at the Bears defense, what would you say are the biggest strengths and weaknesses heading into the season? – Matthew D.

The strengths are in the back seven. This could be one of the best defensive backfields in football with Pro Bowler Jaylon Johnson, and Pro Bowl caliber players around him. Nickel corner Kyler Gordon is primed for a breakout season. The linebacker trio of Tremaine Edmunds, TJ Edwards and Jack Sanborn is also above average.

On the D-line, who will join (and help) Montez Sweat and the pass rush? Darrell Taylor, acquired in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks, injured his foot in Thursday’s practice and is questionable for the game. DeMarcus Walker is solid, but the Bruins believed they needed more of a passing threat against Sweat. Maybe that will be rookie Austin Booker. And can Gervon Dexter live up to the offseason hype?

Bears Titans fun facts

• The Bruins are 6-7 all-time against the Titans and 2-4 at home. The last meeting was in 2020, a 24-17 loss in Nashville.

• The Titans beat the Bruins 27-21 the last time they came to Soldier Field. Matt Barkley threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in defeat.

• The Bruins are 2-8 in Week 1 in the past 10 seasons, and 1-5 in season openers at home in that stretch.

• Will Levis will be the sixth second-year quarterback to start against the Bruins under Eberflus. The previous five are 1-4. Mike White (Jets, 2022) is the only one who won, and didn’t throw a pick.

• The Bruins have four former Titans: safety Kevin Byard, right guard Nate Davis, defensive end DeMarcus Walker and fullback Khari Blasingame.

• It’s been 10 years since the Bruins were at least a 4-point favorite in a season opener. They were 7-point favorites against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 of 2014 and lost 23-20 in overtime.

Game picks: Bruins (-3.5) vs. Titans, noon CT on Fox

Kevin Fishbain: Bears 26, Titans 25

I thought about planting my flag as the only one here – and maybe only one on the beat – to take on the visiting team, but three things go in the Bruins’ favor if this were to be a close game. They have home field advantage, more continuity on the coaching staff, and a quarterback I feel better about in the clutch. Game on the line? I’ll take Williams over Will Levis.

Adam Jahns: Bears 24, Titans 17

Week 1 can be hard to predict. Who can forget the Bruins’ wild and wet win over the San Francisco 49ers in 2022 at Soldier Field? And, which team turned out to be better – significantly better? The Titans have a new head coach and defensive coordinator, which could work in their favor. That said, there are matchups in this game that lean toward the Bears, and I’d take Williams in his first start over Levis in his 10th but his first for new coach Brian Callahan.

Dan Pompey: Bears 22, Titans 20

The Titans should control the line of scrimmage offensively and defensively, which makes it possible for them to win this game easily. But the Bruins are capable of overcoming anything that happens up front with big plays. That’s what they’ll need to win this one. Can you envision a storybook ending for a quarterback making his first NFL start? i can

Jon Greenberg: Bears 24, Titans 20

A push for some of the gamblers and a win for the Bears. Williams debuts with 225 passing yards, two TDs, one INT and the tears of joy of a million adult Bears fans.

Joe Rexrode (Titans beat writer): Bears 24, Titans 23

The Titans did some extensive roster tweaking in the offseason, particularly at cornerback and receiver, and top pick/left tackle JC Latham should immediately give Levis a chance in the pocket that he rarely had last season. Jeffery Simmons, second-round pick T’Vondre Sweat and Wilson’s pressure defense will challenge Williams in his debut. But let’s call it a late drive ending in a Williams winner to DJ Moore, as The Legend of Caleb begins.

(Top photo: Perry Knotts/Getty Images)