Each week during the 2023-24 NBA season, we’ll delve into some of the league’s biggest storylines to determine if trends are based more in fact or fiction going forward.
[Last week: Joel Embiid and the 76ers are in for a painfully long season]
Fact or Fiction: Under the rise of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are contenders again
We’ve heard LeBron James’ story”supercomputer“brain. He knows what you’re going to do before you do it, or so the story goes. Except, it seems, when you’re Evan Mobley, boasting a fresh arsenal of moves.
Early in the final quarter of Wednesday’s game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell grabbed a rebound, promptly finding Mobley in transition. James drew the defensive task, casually stepping back, as if he did not anticipate his opponent’s next move. Sure enough, as Mobley has done several times to start the season, he vaporized the rim, scoring early in the shot clock.
It was the epitome of everything newly installed head coach Kenny Atkinson preached to begin his tenure — everything the Cavs did to become the Eastern Conference’s lone remaining undefeated.
Play with speed and attack the rim, especially if you’re Mobley, a 23-year-old Defensive Player of the Year finalist who’s only now, in his fourth season, starting to develop the wide ranges of his offensive prowess.
Cleveland’s 101.7 possessions per game reflect the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA, and its 59.6 drives per game are the third-most in the league. The Cavs ranked 24th and 17th in those respective categories last season. Their number of field goals attempted in the first third of a shot clock similarly exploded.
Mobley was the greatest benefactor. The faster pace provides more opportunities for everyone, and Mobley uses a quarter of his team’s possessions when he’s on the floor, up from 20% last season. His drives have doubled to nine per game, and he’s creating more of his own offense than ever before.
Tristan Thompson put it simply, via Fred Katz of The Athletic: “More of a “f*** you” attitude this year.”
About 70% of Atkinson’s job interview was focused on, “How will we use Evan? How are we going to grow his game?“he told ESPN’s Chris Herring. The results are in, at least through five games, and they’re spectacular. Cleveland’s 123.4 points per 100 possessions leads the league — and would represent the best offensive rating in league history if the Cavs can maintain that level of efficiency for a full year.
They can’t. Or won’t. The Boston Celtics recorded the highest effective field goal percentage (57.8%) in history last season. The Cavs own an effective field goal percentage of 62.4%. The difference between them and the current runner-up (57.5%) is equal to the difference between the second- and 18th-place teams.
Asked if he anticipated the offense so quickly, Atkinson admitted, “Honestly, I’m a little surprised.”
It will regress, hopefully not to the level of last season, when they ranked in the middle of the pack. They will not continue to score 25.2 points per game from turnovers – the highest figure in The NBA.com database.
But the core principle – get shots, and get them up early, even if they’re unassisted – is what matters. They probably can’t keep converting 40% of their 13 pull-up 3s per game as a team. Again, the Celtics attempt nearly twice as many tries per game, and while they don’t convert them at the same rate, the end result is the same – an elite offense that maximizes its considerable talent.
That wasn’t easy in Cleveland, where Mobley and Jarrett Allen piled up space for Mitchell and Darius Garland. If nothing else, putting the ball in Mobley’s hands more often — making “what Giannis [Antetokounmpo] does,” as Atkinson put it – forces Mitchell and Garland of the ball, reorienting the space within the offense. Sticking Allen into a corner also helps. Even if his shot doesn’t draw the defense, Allen’s athleticism — cutting quickly and pressing the rim if not clear — commands respect.
The final piece to that puzzle is Mobley’s 3-point shooting. He shoots 50% on 1.6 3-point attempts per game. The league did not quite manage to oppose him. (He shot 28.6% on 3.3 attempts per 36 minutes in the preseason.) Convert even a league average from distance on a higher volume, and defenses won’t be able to ignore Mobley on the outside, generating even more space, with or without the ball.
That he’s already one of the NBA’s most effective high-usage players is a hell of an open statement.
It will become more difficult. Defenses will build walls to prevent Mobley from penetrating the paint, as they do against Antetokounmpo, and playmaking from that point takes practice. If Mobley can shoot over the wall, what a wrinkle that would be. The more pressure he draws, the more chances he’ll have to find Mitchell, Garland and whatever wing wins the job. They’re all set to shoot at will in Atkinson’s system, or attack shutouts, sending the defense into a rotation that can’t contain Cleveland’s talent.
Will the Cavs continue to outscore opponents by 20 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Allen and Mobley share the floor? Probably not, considering they basically played opponents even in double-sized lineups last season. But can they replicate their +8.6 net rating from two seasons ago, when Cleveland owned the league’s best point differential? That seems doable, given their improved offensive foundation.
Because the defense is always there. The Cavaliers have ranked no lower than seventh for that purpose in three seasons since they paired Allen and Mobley. They are rated fourth through five games this year, allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions – a standard that would have led the league last season.
The question is whether they can find some level of consistency to this hot offensive start. Their first three wins came against Toronto, Detroit and Washington – a trio of teams projected for the lottery.
“It’s a new system, so you learn new things, but now are we willing to continue doing the different things that made us successful … when it’s not that easy?” Mitchell asked, according to Cleveland.com.
Wins over the Knicks and Lakers reinforced that this was no fluke – that their connectivity can avoid falling apart in the face of more formidable foes. As Atkinson told reporters and Mitchell reiterated, “When you are connected and talented, you can do some important things in this league.”
Consistency is key, especially for Mobley, who doesn’t turn 24 until June, when he hopes his team is still playing. There is no sudden rise to superstardom. But the Cavs score every 100 possessions by 32.7 points when Mobley owns the center spot, and stay connected is easier than getting connected
So when Mobley drove alongside James, perhaps it was more than a manifestation of all that Atkinson preached. Earlier in the game, Cleveland paid tribute to James’ championship contribution to the city, to which Mitchell said: “You want to be next.” Perhaps Mobley staked his claim to that throne.
Determination: A fact. Under the rise of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are contenders again.
