The NBA season is just a shade over three weeks away. Preseason basketball begins this Friday. Fantasy fans and mock drafters, however, are already in full swing. Players’ Average Draft Positions can change significantly this early in the process. Below are six significant fantasy players who have seen their ADPs change significantly recently.
Lifters
Karl-Anthony Towns
Knicks
ADP: 32.6
Towns was surprisingly traded to the Knicks over the weekend, with the Timberwolves receiving Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a protected first-round pick. We haven’t seen significant movement from Randle and DiVincenzo’s ADPs, but fantasy managers view the deal as a positive for City.
While Kat still projects to be the #2 option in New York, as he was in Minnesota, the opportunity to play center gives him a bump. He spent the past two seasons playing primarily power next to Rudy Gobert. Over the past two seasons, he averaged 8.2 rebounds and 0.6 blocks compared to 11.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in his previous seven seasons.
I don’t foresee Towns becoming a first-round value like he was for many of those early years. But there’s a real chance for him to reach second-round status. You might not have to draft him so early, but doing so wouldn’t make me uncomfortable. It’s also beneficial that he plays a position of scarcity (center), which you have to start two of in standard Yahoo fantasy formats.
Brandon Miller
Hornets
ADP: 68.3
There has been positive momentum Miller’s way since the end of last season. With LaMelo Ball’s injury, the rookie has seized control of the offense for big stretches. In his final 34 appearances, Miller averaged 19.7 points on 45/37/84 shooting, 4.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.9 combined steals-plus-blocks in 33.6 minutes.
Ball starts this season healthy, and Miles Bridges is still around. Both players give Miller competition for usage. But after what we saw last year, plus offseason development, I won’t be surprised if Miller takes firm hold as the team’s clear-cut No. 2 option. It will be difficult for him to raise his assist production, which was already low, but he seems poised to become an effective volume scorer who can put up quality defensive numbers.
His ADP is on the rise, although I think it’s probably at or nearing his ceiling. There are still barriers to him reaching his full potential – mainly the presence of Ball and Bridges. And his game isn’t as well-rounded as it needs to be for elite fantasy production. But the floor feels high, and it’s an understandable bet on the talent.
Cam Thomas
Networks
ADP: 74.6
Thomas anchored Brooklyn’s offense last season, taking it away from Mikal Bridges. Bridges is now with the Knicks, and Thomas is left as the clear number 1 option of the Nets. During the final two months of last season, he averaged 26.6 points on 45/37/89 shooting, 4.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 35.8 minutes.
There will be fantasy managers who were burnt by Jordan Poole’s predicted breakout campaign last year who want no part of Thomas. They’ve seen this title before – a spot-on microwave scorer set for a massive season on a terrible team. I understand that, and it’s a fair concern. But we’re getting Thomas around pick 75 this year, not pick 40, where Poole was drafted.
I don’t say this often, but I really don’t think you can burn picking Thomas here. I imagine other fantasy managers feel the same way, which is why his ADP is rising. Thomas’ efficiency may suffer, and he is lacking as a passer and defender. But how many other players in this range are clear of their team, clear No. 1 option with a top like this? Someday I only want to bet on a soon-to-be 23-year-old with a radioactive green light.
failures
Kawhi Leonard
Scissors
ADP: 34.3
Leonard played 68 games last season – his most since before his injury saga with the Spurs began. He was fantastic and returned first-round value for fantasy managers who took the gamble. But should we play again this year?
Leonard underwent yet another offseason knee surgery. He is limited to start training camp. While he says the plan is ready for Opening Night (Oct. 23 vs. the Suns), this is a “I’ll believe it when I see it” situation for me. There were too many problems for me to take anything at face value.
The surgery scares fantasy managers, too, and Leonard’s ADP drops into the mid-30s. Even if he wasn’t exceptionally vulnerable, how many 33-year-olds would you trust to play 68 games anyway? If you’re a manager who plays heads, I understand how securing Leonard around pick 35 feels like a steal. Personally, I want less risk this early in drafts.
Devin Vassell
spurs
ADP: 70.4
Vassell has improved every season he has been in the NBA. Last year was a high for him as he thrived being the team’s second option behind Victor Wembanyama. Vassell posted strong numbers – 19.5 points on 47/37/81 shooting, 4.1 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.1 steals in 33.1 minutes.
However, the foot surgery he underwent, which ended his season early, did not take, and he needed a follow-up procedure in late June. The Spurs’ medical staff will reevaluate him on November 1st. But what does that really mean? If you’re deep enough in the NBA injury weeds, you’ll know that could mean he’s being re-evaluated, and it’s been determined that he’s still at least two weeks out. Then, that cycle repeats itself.
It’s now a tough sell to draft Vassell earlier than pick 100, especially with the other additional plays you can make around picks 70-90. Maybe he comes back in mid-November and all is well, and it’s a massive win that you drafted him at pick 98. Maybe he doesn’t play 30 minutes per game consistently until late December and the pick ends up being mostly a loss. Managers in leagues with multiple IR points should be more willing to take the risk.
Mark Williams
Hornets
ADP: 77.7
Williams is another player whose ADP is dropping due to preseason injury concerns. Williams was on track for a breakout campaign last year but played just 19 games due to a back injury. He put up solid numbers when available, averaging 12.7 points on 64.9 FG% and 71.9 FT%, 9.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.1 blocks and 0.8 steals in 26.7 minutes.
We learned a few days ago that the center is dealing with a strained tendon in his foot and is being re-evaluated in about a week and a half. Charlotte is notoriously deceptive when it comes to their injury reports. They listed Williams as questionable for 62 straight games last year. So when the team says, “reassessment soon,” I really don’t know what to expect.
If we know he’s healthy coming into this year, I think the late 70s is a good ADP for him. He is a lock to put up quality traditional big numbers. But clearly fantasy managers are spooked by this injury news, and with good reason. If you’re in any drafts before this revaluation, you might want to wait closer to pick 100.
