In the world of fantasy sports, the term “sleeper” refers to an underrated or underrated player who has the potential to exceed expectations and provide significant value.
With the rise of fantasy sports and sports betting, identifying these hidden gems has become as challenging as hitting half-court shots (unless you’re Stephen Curry). Information is more accessible than ever, with analysts, podcasts and social media providing a constant stream of data and forecasts. As a result, many sleepers no longer nap.
Discovering a true sleeper these days requires more than just knowledge — it requires a bit of speculation and luck. You have to look at player performance trends, preseason games and even the smallest whispers from training camps.
In addition to taking advantage of the potential gems listed below, be sure to also check out our staff’s roundtable on sleepers, busts and busts, where I nominate Trey Murphy III as a notable “3-and-D” sleeper.
For the following list of notable sleepers, the focus is only on players found outside the top 100 picks on average in ESPN’s live draft results.
Jabari Smith, PF/C, Houston Rockets
Younger players often have lower ADPs (average draft position) due to uncertainty, but the most common timing for breakout campaigns is in those first few seasons of a budding career. Smith’s profile doesn’t scream, but he has flashed improvements as a floor spacer while bringing strong defensive rates to the court. Given Smith’s special two-way skill set, don’t be surprised if Ime Udoka empowers Smith more than ever this season.
Deni Avdija, SF/PF, Portland Trail Blazers
At just 23, Avdija claims a polished floor game that saw him set career bests in playmaking, scoring and rebounding in his final season with the Wizards. Positioned for significant minutes on a Portland team still in transition from the Damian Lillard era, Avdija could be an important part of the next phase for the franchise.
Keyonte George, PG/SG, and Taylor Hendricks, PF, Utah Jazz
Given how many high-usage, heliocentric stars we can identify in the league, providing help in later rounds may prove difficult. Assisting on nearly a quarter of all made field goals for the Jazz while on the court as a rookie, George’s playmaking precedent suggests a potential breakout could develop in Utah this fall. Beyond his pick-and-roll prowess, George averaged nearly 15 points on a respectable volume from deep as a rookie.
Another Jazz rookie from last season, Hendricks flashed impressive defensive and positional versatility for the team. With tons of minutes on the wing available in Salt Lake City, Hendricks will almost certainly out-produce his draft price.
Brandin Podziemski, SG, and De’Anthony Melton, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors
“Air Podz” averaged 5.8 rebounds during his rookie season, which put Podziemski in the 98th percentile among NBA guards. In addition to atypical rebounding volume, Podziemski was able to erupt as a shooter and scorer in the wake of Klay Thompson’s departure from the rotation. Offseason buzz suggests the team is ready to introduce the second-year guard.
Steve Kerr’s shot-happy system could bode well for Melton’s offensive profile, while the team is also likely to unleash him in the passing lanes on defense in a similar fashion to how Donte DiVincenzo and Gary Payton II thrived in this system. It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that Melton averages more than two made 3-pointers and two combined blocks and steals in this fantasy-friendly setup.
Herbert Jones, SF/PF, New Orleans Pelicans
Don’t get stuck on the sluggish scoring profile; Jones claims one of the league’s purest “3-and-D” profiles. He posted an impressive 63% effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot threes last season while finishing among the most versatile and effective defenders in the game. He finished in the 96th percentile in the league in steal percentage and 80th in block percentage.
With the Pelicans leaning on a small ball identity, Jones will likely set career highs in minutes and opportunities.
Cameron Johnson, SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets
We witnessed Mikal Bridges enjoy a massive increase in scoring production when he joined the Nets in the blockbuster Kevin Durant deal with the Phoenix Suns. Could Johnson’s turn be next?
With the team moving Bridges to another small town over the summer, Johnson is due for a rewarding increase in offensive opportunities. The potential for Johnson to set career bests in scoring and shooting is quite high, while his draft price remains reasonable.
Marcus Smart, PG/SG, and Vince Williams Jr., PG/SG, Memphis Grizzlies
It’s rare that the fantasy market overlooks a former Defensive Player of the Year, but here we are. Smart’s 2023-24 season was plagued by injuries, so it’s understandable that he went deep into draft picks. With enough passing chops to help run second units and some of the best defensive rates at his position, Smart could be a savvy late-round pick.
The unfortunate injury to GG Jackson II likely leads to a massive role for Williams in Memphis to open the season. Word of the beat is that Williams could be among the team leaders in minutes. Last season’s eroded roster gave Williams a real chance to grow as a playmaker and complementary scorer, roles he’ll likely revive during a restocked Grizzlies rotation.
