One of the most important things to keep in mind when drafting your team is to recognize all possible outcomes for each player. Sometimes we know exactly what we’re going to get from an individual player. Other times, we have no idea. It could be a league-winning pick, or it could be one of the most frustrating picks you’ve ever had.
The next 10 players have a chance to be home runs. They also have a chance to be disappointed. It is important to understand both reality and outline based on what you think is the right one. When drafting these guys, you have to weigh the risk and the reward. A smart drafter would happily draft these guys, although it’s not necessarily a smart move to draft a team full of them.
Jordan Poole
Everyone knows how bad last year went for Poole, but if you stopped paying attention, you might have missed his turn. During his final 14 games of the season, Poole averaged 21.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 1.1 steals and 3.1 threes per game. Those games were all without Tyus Jones, and he’s now in Phoenix. Malcolm Brogdon will be sidelined for the first month of the season, and the Wizards have already said Poole will be their point guard. Looks like he’s ready to bounce back.
On the other hand, there is still a chance that it doesn’t work that way. Poole and the Wizards were a meme for most of last season, and with a bunch of rookies in the mix, they won’t be any better. The possibility of Poole struggling again in a tank team is real, and we saw how bad it got early last season.
Josh Giddey
Giddey became a liability in OKC, and a fresh start should do him some good. Chicago was willing to part ways with Alex Caruso to bring him in, and he should handle the ball a lot early. It’s unclear what the starting lineup will look like, but he’s still very young and a great source of rebounds and assists. On a rebuilding team, he could break out and be worth a pick in the middle rounds.
However, what if the same things that limited him with the Thunder follow him to Chicago? He’s not going to magically become a better shooter or defender overnight, and there are other guards like Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu and even Lonzo Ball competing for minutes. He could see an even smaller role than his 25.1 minutes per game last season. Things may not improve for Giddey with a new team.
With Mikal Bridges gone, the expectation is that Thomas will step right in and average 25 points per game. He averaged 22.5 per game last year, and that number will easily increase with Bridges’ 15.8 shots per game that need to be filled. Thomas is an elite source of points and 3-pointers, and he should be able to put up some other numbers now that he’s the primary scoring option.
Cam Thomas
If that scoring doesn’t improve, Thomas might not make much of an impact in league play. In 31.4 minutes per game, he didn’t contribute many numbers other than buckets. What if he struggles to score with more defensive attention on him? Thomas may just be a field goal percentage killer if he doesn’t make some improvements.
Walker Kessler
Everyone knows how good Kessler is in fantasy, but Will Hardy wasn’t interested in starting him for most of his first two seasons. However, Kessler started in Utah’s first two preseason games, which is great news for fantasy managers. If Hardy continues to start him, Kessler should see more than enough minutes to shine in fantasy, specifically with his elite block percentage.
Unfortunately, there’s a chance that Kessler doesn’t play more minutes just because he’s starting. While the expectation may be that a starting center will play more than 30 minutes per game, he could be closer to 25 as Hardy opts for a more shifty frontcourt to defend guards when needed. Kessler will still be good, but he could be a bust at his ADP if he doesn’t play starter-level minutes.
Onyeka Okongwu
Is this the year? Will OO finally become the starting center in Atlanta? If he does, get ready for the explosion. Clint Capela had a lot of success catching lobs from Trae Young, and Alex Len even had a solid stretch before Capela arrived. Okongwu is much more dynamic offensively, and if he can get over 30 minutes per game consistently, we’re looking at a potential top-50 finish, if not better.
Maybe it’s not the year. Maybe Capela continues to start, or Okongwu starts and splits the minutes at center. There’s also a chance he doesn’t improve as a rebounder, which hurts the team. OO has been primed for a breakout year since he was a rookie, and there’s always a chance we’ll have to wait another year.
Scoot Henderson
Playing point guard in the NBA is not easy, and many rookies struggle. Henderson had a lot of hype around him, and he might be able to put it together in year two. He’s been excellent down the stretch in a high-volume role, and he can improve his effectiveness with experience. He can be an elite source of points and help in the later rounds, and if he takes the expected year two jump, he should exceed his ADP.
However, we can’t just ignore how bad Scoot was as a rookie. 38.5% from the floor and 3.4 turnovers are terrible numbers, especially since he only averaged 5.4 assists per game. Anfernee Simons will still have the ball a lot, and Henderson might be ineffective again when he has the opportunity to make a play. Simply put, his inefficiency is difficult to manage.
Christian Braun
With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in Orlando, the starting shooting guard spot is up for grabs in Denver. Braun got the first crack at it, and he can be the perimeter defender they need to make up for KCP’s absence. He’s not a great shooter, but he can do a little bit of everything to help the team win. Many of those little things combined in a big role will allow him to pop in category leagues.
Of course, we’re talking about a player who has yet to finish inside the top 250 in 9-cat leagues in his career. There’s a chance he doesn’t see his numbers improve just because his role has increased, or Julian Strawther could end up starting to provide them with some floor space. Braun could end up being completely irrelevant in fantasy rings again.
Matas Buzelis
The newcomer is in such an interesting situation. He was an elite shooter in high school but didn’t shoot well in the G League. However, he was able to put up excellent defensive numbers, and now he joins a team that is trying to find an identity. Buzelis should play a big role early, and while there will be some growing pains, he’s in one of the best spots to break out as a rookie. Despite falling to pick 11, Buzelis could contend for Rookie of the Year.
Like almost any rookie, Buzelis might just struggle a lot. He had a lot of problems in the G-League, and it may not be a smooth transition to the NBA, which was the case for many former G-League Ignite players. Buzelis’ struggles may far outweigh the positives he can bring as a rookie.
Grady Dick
It looks like Dick is on track to start, and his offense could open up the floor a lot for a young Raptors squad. During the last month of his junior year, Gradey provided plenty of points and 3-pointers in an expanded role, and there’s no reason to think he won’t improve in year two. With Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes feeding him open looks, Dick should be in for a big season.
However, when he rained in 3-pointers last year, he really didn’t contribute much else. That could remain true this season, and he hasn’t really given any indication that it won’t. He might be a good fit from a basketball perspective, but that doesn’t mean he’ll make an impact in fantasy, especially in division leagues.
Keon Ellis
After Kevin Huerter went down last year, Ellis proved why he should be the team’s starting shooting guard. He was an elite source of steals and blocks for a guard, and he ended up having some good performances from beyond the arc down the stretch of the season. It’s unclear who will be the starter, but I think Ellis should be. If he is, he’ll have a chance to make a massive, massive impact in 9-cat leagues because of his defensive abilities.
Unfortunately, there’s still a chance Huerter gets the starting nod. If that happens, there may not be enough minutes to go around for Ellis to provide much fantasy value, as Malik Monk will be the primary backup point guard, and Devin Carter will eventually be healthy. Ellis may be a waste of a pick if he’s stuck behind Huerter.
