We’re almost a month into the NBA season. With a decent sample size in hand, we have a slightly better gauge of the trade market for fantasy basketball. Let’s discuss some players to buy low, sell high or hold based on the first month of the season.
to buy
Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls
The trade from the Thunder to the Bulls set up Giddey with the potential to see a significant boost in his fantasy value. Last season, he averaged 12.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game, with the Thunder cutting his playing time to 25 minutes per game. While he started every game for the Bulls, he didn’t see a huge increase in playing time, averaging 27 minutes per game. The result was averages of 12.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.3 three-pointers per game.
Giddey’s scoring numbers aren’t great as he only shoots 41.6% from the field. He shot at least 47.5% in both of the last two seasons, so his efficiency should at least improve a bit as the season progresses. A couple of recent blowouts have skewed Giddey’s playing time. Of the Bulls’ 15 games, Giddey logged at least 28 minutes in 10 of them. He continues to be a good source for rebounds and assists, and with the potential for his scoring numbers to improve, this is a buy-low opportunity to get him.
Collin Sexton, Utah Jazz
After averaging 18.7 points per game last season, Sexton is averaging just 15.8 points per game this year. That’s despite him shooting 44.4% from behind the arc. Part of the reason for his decline in production is that his usage dropped from 27.5% last season to 24.6% this season.
After this season, Sexton has just one more season left on his contract. His salary isn’t that unreasonable either, at $19.2 million next season. Will he stay on the rebuilding Jazz through the trade deadline? Will they trade veteran Jordan Clarkson, who is also under contract through the next one, but with an even cheaper salary? There’s a way for Sexton to see his usage increase at some point in the season based on trades, but even if it’s not significantly, he can still provide value to fantasy managers. It might not cost much to get him in a trade now.
sell
Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
After missing four straight games with an ankle injury, Butler returned on Monday to record 30 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and one steal against the 76ers. He played 34 minutes, so he was clearly not limited by the injury. For the season, Butler is now averaging 17.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.4 steals per game. His numbers would have been better had he not only played seven minutes in a game against the Nuggets when he suffered his ankle injury.
When Butler is on the floor, he can be a great fantasy option. The problem is, he hasn’t played more than 65 games since the 2016-17 season. He turned 35 in September, so asking him to be healthier this season is very difficult. He’s healthy now and just put up a monster stat line, so float him in trade offers before he misses any more time.
Kyle Kuzma, Washington Wizards
Selling Kuzma now would be selling low. He is averaging just 17.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. Part of the reason for his decline in scoring is that he shot just 40.9% from the field and 29.2% from behind the arc. Last season, he shot 46.3% from the field and 33.6% on three-pointers.
The good news is that Kuzma is showing signs of regaining his efficiency, shooting 46.3% from the field through five games since returning from a groin injury. It might take another week for his averages to improve, but at least start thinking about trading him in fantasy now. He has played at least 30 minutes in a game just once this season. With the Wizards often blown out, he could find himself on the bench for the majority of the fourth quarter many nights. He may have more name value right now than actual fantasy value.
hold on
Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
Daniels is firmly in the hunt for the Most Improved Player award. After playing limited minutes with the Pelicans during his first two seasons in the league, Daniels is averaging 34 minutes per game for the Hawks. He made the most of his expanded role, averaging 14.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 3.4 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.2 three-pointers per game.
The Hawks are finally starting to get healthier with Bogdan Bogdanovic returning from his hamstring injury on Monday. This marked only the second game he had played this season. However, given how well Daniels has played, he’s likely cemented himself as a starter with plenty of minutes going forward. He can be a league-winner when it comes to steals, so don’t panic about Bogdanovic’s return.
Josh Hart, New York Knicks
Hart is off to a great start averaging 13.7 points, 8.9 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.2 three-pointers per game. He shot 58.4% from the field, which is a huge improvement over his 43.4% mark from the field last season. Before that, Hart shot at least 50.4% from the field in back-to-back seasons.
With Hart excelling in so many areas, this might seem like a good opportunity to sell high on him in fantasy. However, keeping him could be the right move. He is logging 37 minutes per game this season and should continue to play a lot with the Knicks having a thin bench. The combination of his versatile skill with a head coach in Tom Thibodeau who likes to play his starters a lot makes Hart a very attractive option.
