The 2024-25 NBA season will be unpredictable.
We’ve already seen one All-NBA player traded for another – Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo – before training camps even opened. This season feels wide open, with more contending teams entering the season than we’ve seen in a long time. Finally, this season may follow form, and Boston will repeat as champions, but the road to that moment will be long and winding.
Let’s try to predict the unpredictable — here are five bold predictions for the upcoming NBA season.
Klay Thompson will be Dallas’ sixth man through the All-Star break
Klay Thompson chose Dallas as a free-agent destination for several reasons: playing with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, changing the narrative around him, and the opportunity to start. The Mavericks reportedly told Thompson he would start for them and that makes sense, he brings valued floor spacing and shooting. Last season, teams would let Derrick Jones Jr. alone in the corner and dare him to beat them, no one does that with Thompson.
However, Thompson isn’t the defender he once was — he was a minus defender last season — and that could be a problem next to Doncic and Irving. It would put a lot of pressure on second-year center Derrick Lively II to clean things up around the rim.
However, the Mavericks also acquired winger Naji Marshall as a free agent this summer. Although he’s not as big and sexy a name as Thompson, Marshall is a quality defender who made a leap last season and shot 38.7% from 3 and 42% on corner 3s. If Marshall can continue to shoot 3s at that rate, he’s a better fit next to Doncic and Irving.
By the All-Star break it will be clear that Dallas is just better with Marshall starting and Thompson playing 20+ minutes a night off the bench. Jason Kidd will sit down and have the tough conversation. But, if it’s what’s best for a team with aspirations of returning to the NBA Finals and taking one more step, Kidd will do it.
New York Knicks will finish regular season with best record in East
Boston is the team to beat in the East and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they win 60 games or more again this season. However, without Kristaps Porzingis until around Christmas and a championship hangover, don’t expect the Celtics to circle the field like they did a season ago.
That opens the door for the Knicks to grab the top seed.
New York was the No. 2 seed in the East a season ago and has upgraded this offseason. First they added Mikal Bridges to the wing and as a secondary playmaker next to Jalen Brunson. Then last week, the Knicks upgraded the central position trading for Karl-Anthony Townswho will put the Knicks offense into overdrive with his floor spacing and scoring.
Add in the fact that this is a Tom Thibodeau team that will play every regular season game like it’s the playoffs and New York will get a lot of wins. More than the Celts. New York will have the top seed in the East and Madison Square Garden will rock in the playoffs.
Nets’ Cam Thomas will finish the season top five in NBA in scoring
Cam Thomas never met a shot he didn’t like.
The Nets are rebuilding this season, but someone has to take the shots in Brooklyn — we know Ben Simmons will deliver his open jumpers — and Thomas at an all-you-can-eat buffet will mean a lot of points. Don’t expect efficiency, but he will score a lot of points.
Thomas will finish in the top five in the NBA in scoring this season because of the opportunity he has in Brooklyn. (The only thing that stops this prediction is that Thomas is traded to a team that inserts him as a sixth-man gunner and limits his opportunities.)
When the Bucks struggle, Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors bubble up. Again.
Perhaps this is not a bold prediction because it has already started to happen.
Every NBA front office has a list of superstars who could move because if a franchise wants to win the ultimate prize, it needs one of them. There are maybe 10 players in the NBA today who can legitimately be the true cornerstone of a championship contender, and right now none of those guys look like they’ll be moving anytime soon (Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Shai). Gilgeous-Alexander)…Giannis Antetokounmpo is the closest thing. So his name comes up.
This is not fair to the Bucks and their fans, Antetokounmpo signed an extension with the team a year ago, signaling that the trade for Damian Lillard was proof that the Milwaukee ownership and front office were committed to winning. However, year one of the Antetokounmpo/Lillard era did not go as planned, and if things are off to a slow start this season for a team with no margin for error other teams will be watching, waiting to see if the ultra-competitive Antetokounmpo gets frustrated and starts looking around.
And the rumors will begin. Fair or not.
Five games will separate West’s No. 6 seed from missing even the play-in
It’s impossible to overstate how brutal the West is going this season – 12 teams expect to make the playoffs (and that’s not counting San Antonio, which should have play-in aspirations) and in the end only eight are going to the dance (two more get beat. in the play-in). Coaches and GMs will feel their seats getting hot if their team stumbles and looks like it might miss the postseason.
It should break down like this: Expect the Thunder to get the top seed, they did a year ago and then went out and updated the roster with Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. Dallas with Luka Doncic and Denver with Nikola Jokic will be second and third in some order, although the Timberwolves could slide into that group (I’m a little less sure about them after they traded away Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle). That’s the top four.
Then it brutally approaches. The Grizzlies. Suns, Pelicans, Warriors, Kings, Lakers, Rockets and Clippers will be joined in some order, and that’s seeds 5-12.
Things will be so tight that only five games will separate the No. 6 seed — a team that can avoid the playoffs — and the No. 12 seed, which misses the postseason altogether and has serious discussions about the direction of the franchise. . Little things, like a star rolling his ankle and missing a few weeks, could be the difference.
Last season was 11 games separating the number 6 seed and missing the play-in, this season will be very different. That’s great for fans who want to be entertained, but it will be stressful for teams.
