The Knicks is making a pattern of making surprising blockbusters, stunning the basketball world late on a Friday night with a trade. Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzoprotected Detroit first-round pick and salary filler for Karl-Anthony Towns.
The seven-foot shooter is a bold acquisition at a time of need for New York, but cost them the pillar of their rebuild under. Leo Rose and Tom Thibodeaualong with one of the most valuable shooters in the league.
We won’t know the full ramifications of this trade for months, or maybe years, but can do our best to objectively grade it at this point. Did the Knicks just set themselves up for a championship run, or screw up a contender with the second coming of the Andrea Bargnani business?
The benefits of business for Cities
Avoids the Randle contract situation
2024-25 was the last guaranteed year on Randle’s contract, and despite landing extensions with Jalen Brunson and Thibodeau, the Knicks couldn’t progress with the big power forward.
This has been a quiet but big question mark in this pivotal offseason – is New York willing to go all-in with a number two they weren’t fully invested in, and would Randle make the necessary sacrifices with potential free agency coming up?
Instead of worrying about Randle’s individual trade value, the need for a midseason trade, a new injury popping up, possibly losing him for nothing or any other creeping complications, New York nipped this whole situation in the bud by dealing him before the season. Towns, for better or worse, is locked into his contract for the next three years.
The basketball argument
Towns is a historically great shooter off the front court, playing both positions with plenty of postseason reps under his belt. He is undoubtedly the best player in this deal to most national NBA insiders, however, at their respective peaks Randle has a case.
Adding Towns allows for a definitive five-out, extremely well-spaced offense that Knicks fans only hoped Randle under center could pull off. Towns is a career 39.8 percent three-point shooter on nearly 2,500 attempts in the regular season, and hit 41.6 percent of his attempts last year.
In theory, he can also pick up some of the stuff dropped when New York lost Isaiah Hartenstein this summer. While far from an elite passer, he can be a top-tier hub for Brunson and company. work away and a threat in the short roll when he is caught.
He immediately addresses a position of need, with the Knicks center rotation up front boasting an injured one Mitchell Robinson, Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims. Towns can man the five in spaced rows and slide down a position in favor of traditional edge protection, especially once Robinson gets healthy.
City’s most notable deficiencies are balanced out by this Knicks roster as well. Having two All-NBA Defensive wings and high-powered dirty bigs next to him should cover his weaknesses defensively and on the glass.
In a hypothetical matchup with the defending champion Boston Celtics, the Knicks now have their answer with Towns. Being able to stretch five for stretch five with a ton of variability in the rest of the lineup makes them a worthy challenge.
Finally, almost every time Rose made a bold transaction or decision, it turned out to be right. He has earned himself a lot of benefit of the doubt, and could be on something here missing opponents.
The disadvantages of trade for Cities
A brand new team
New York will have a real adjustment period to start this new season. This wasn’t just a talent upgrade — the Knicks fundamentally changed the identity and chemistry of their team.
For the past year and a half, New York has been the ineffective team that would grind opponents on the boards and defensively to make up for it. They’ve turned that dynamic on its head in search of a league-best offense that will be challenged defensively and on the glass.
Beyond it being a radical change, it might not be the right one. Two elite defensive wings (with only two good ones as a backup) may not be enough to cover a Brunson-Towns defensive tandem.
Those second-chance opportunities will take a major hit with Cities at five. For reference, all four Knicks centers in 2023-24 had higher offensive rebounding rates than Towns had in a season since 2019.
Only the overall toughness and knock-on effect of the Knicks’ play will be mitigated by bringing in Towns. He’s not known for having that edge to him and struggles to overpower guys half his size.
Randle has had some growing pains dealing with the abrasive New York media and fan base, but has seemingly moved past it the past two seasons. This will be a new challenge for Towns – how does he react when fans call for his head after his first slump?
In acquiring him, the Knicks broke their Villanova tie, as well as shipping out one of two guys who had been on the team since that first Thibodeau season. That’s a lot of chemistry and institutional knowledge out the door that could have downstream effects on the culture and feel of the team.
The Knicks are also counting on a positive Towns-Thibodeau relationship, after the two were openly sour on each other during their time spent in Minnesota. Presumably that was left in the past, but Towns hasn’t fundamentally changed as a player, and Thibodeau hasn’t fundamentally changed as a coach.
The question that may linger beyond all of this is – what would the Knicks look like if they didn’t make this trade? Was there any real opportunity cost there to wait, see and pivot at the trade deadline if they needed to?
Flexibility and depth
Up until this point, the Knicks have maintained their headscarf with care and precision, emphasizing flexibility so they can always pivot or improve. While Randle’s potential departure may have been a ticking time bomb they wanted to avoid, it cost them a lot of maneuverability to do so.
Towns makes $49 million this season, $53 million next, then $57 million and finally has a player option for $61 million in his age 32 season. More than half of their cap space is now dedicated to Cities and Anunoby, two non-superstars they haven’t seen play alongside difficult injury histories.
They came on the second apron anyway with Bridges needing an extension, but instead of pushing a decision down the road, they basically locked themselves into this core. Similar criticism was levied when they dealt for Anunoby, and that works well, but the jury remains out on Cities.
By trading two rotation pieces for one, the Knicks not only sacrificed flexibility, but also depth. Injuries and the lack of talent to make up for them dragged down New York’s run last season, and while they made offseason moves to try to correct that, this one is holding them back in that regard.
Their key reserves are now one of Josh Hart or Mitchell Robinson, Miles McBride, Precious Achiuwa and a laundry list of hopeful contributors.
The signatures of Landry Shamet and Marcus Morris are re-contextualized now and make a lot more sense, but if this championship runs on those two ready to step up in a 2025 playoff series, it’s not ideal.
Is Towns actually the guy?
If Towns is the best player in this trade, it’s only by a slim margin, and the Knicks gave up an entire valuable second player after him. If he’s better suited than Randle, it’s only in one specific context — shooting the basketball.
While the offense will be more spread out for Brunson, it will remain dependent on his on-ball creation, much more so than with Randle. As talented as Towns is offensively, he is maximized on rushing attacks and spot looks, as opposed to Randle’s self-creation style that allowed Brunson to get a break.
When he was in a groove, Randle would automatically call for a second defender, and use his paint touches on passes to open up teammates. He averaged an assist percentage of 23.8 percent as a Knick, while Towns has not eclipsed that number in a single season of his career.
Towns isn’t a bad passer, but is much more limited as an outsider on set plays. He barely managed a positive assist-to-turnover ratio last year while Randle is consistently well into positive territory.
Towns is an effective one-on-one scorer, but ultimately this trade will require big steps up offensively from Bridges and Anunoby to not put too much of a burden on Brunson.
Minnesota struggled in the playoffs when opponents would put smaller wings on Towns and force them to take advantage – if they tried that with Randle those wings would leave on stretchers.
Speaking of the postseason, much of the Towns-over-Randle argument is based on the latter’s postseason struggles. A fair criticism given his 34.4 percent career shooting in two appearances, however Towns hasn’t exactly been a dominant finisher either.
Towns has averaged four fouls per 36 minutes in his last three postseasons, consistently getting himself into foul trouble. He’s a career 35 percent shooter from deep in the Playoffs — his strongest quality otherwise.
His big impact moments can be counted on one hand, because that lack of attacking power also appears in the postseason. For reference, DiVincenzo had two 30-point playoff games in his only postseason run for New York, while Towns had one in his entire career.
This is before digging into Cities defensively. He looked better next to the perennial Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobertbut without him Minnesota falls apart on that end.
The Timberwolves most played lineups with Towns and no Gobert in 2023-24 were worked defensively and beaten by opponents. They may not have included Anunoby and Bridges, but there was plenty of depth on the wings themselves.
They were also pretty consistently out-bounced, again something Hart and Achiuwa can make up for, but to what extent? Fans can point to the Thibodeau effect in these cases, but he works best with guys who are already skilled and prepared in these aspects of the game, and his first tournament with Towns was a disaster.
There is also quite a concern about injury. After playing almost every game of his first four seasons, Towns appeared in: 35 games, 50 games, 74 games, 29 games and 62 games later.
Grading the business
At face value, Rose has done it again. The Knicks got the best player in the deal, and one that can maximize their star point guard while reconfiguring the team to better match up with the Celtics.
However, dig a little deeper and the cracks begin. This trade is a major gamble, perhaps the first one that might go wrong for this front office.
New York seemed to find real success building a Thibodeau-inspired roster, capitalizing on that further with last year’s trade of Anunoby and this summer’s trade of Bridges.
Some may consider this just another big talent play, but stylistically it’s their most striking swing in the opposite direction since taking over. Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier.
It might pay off, but dramatically increases their chances of disaster in the meantime.
