Midway through last season, it was obvious the question was when, not if:
How long before Victor Wembanyama is the best player on the planet?
Five years? Three years? Discussing it with people around the league, there were some who said next year, and while they may have been in the minority they weren’t laughed out of the room.
He may not be the best player in the league yet, but what should we expect from Victor Wembanyama in his second season? And how high should you take him in your fantasy draft?
Summing up Wembanyama’s rookie year
As a refresher, as a 20-year-old rookie, the 7’4″ center from France averaged 21.4 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, shot 32.5% from 3 (on 5.5 attempts per game), yet he was more effective. a force on the defensive end of the court where on average 3.6 blocked shots a game.
Wembanyama was the unanimous Rookie Of The Year and also finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Then he looked even better during the Paris Olympics.
Wembanyama not only showed growth in his game between the end of the season and the Olympics in France, but he also showed improvement and growing maturity in his game during the Olympics. In the end, he pushed the greatest players of the American generation (such as LeBron James and Kevin Durant) and required Stephen Curry to take over late to beat him and the French team.
After winning a silver medal, Wembanyama issued a warning:
“I’m learning, and I’m worried for the opponents in a few years.”
Did he mean FIBA opponents or the NBA?
“Everywhere.”
How good will Wembanyama be this season?
We know Wembanyama will bring an improved game to the court this season, but more importantly he will have some more veteran talent around him to set him up. Last season, the Spurs were the youngest team in the league, and that inexperience showed. This time, things are different.
Chris Paul – the best floor overall point guard of a generation – now directs the attack, which means Wembanyama will get the ball into better positions to score. Harrison Barnes is a rock-solid, floor-spacing four to go alongside Wembanyama. The Spurs are just better around him, which will open things up for Wembanyama in his second season – he might not score much more in raw scoring stats, but he should be more effective.
Let’s break it down by award:
Will he be an All-Star? That feels like a given, doesn’t it? Wembanyama will be making his first All-Star Game.
The better question is, will he be a starter? That’s a much more difficult task simply because of the depth of the Western Conference: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Nikola Jokic were the front-court starters a year ago, and all are back. The West also has Anthony Davis, who was one of the best four players on Team USA (at least) during the Paris Olympics, and will also have the massive national fan vote of the Lakers behind him. Barring injury, it’s a big ask for Wembanyama to be voted in as a starter ahead of one of those guys.
It is also possible.
Will he make All-NBA? This also feels likely. Remember that the All-NBA vote is no longer by position, it’s just the 15 best players in the league during the season. Wembanyama finished 20th in voting a season ago and should jump into the top 15 this season.
Will he win Defensive Player of the Year? Wembanyama is the favorite to take home the hardware. Don’t take my word for it, he’s the heavy betting favorite. Wembanyama is currently -180 on our partner DraftKings, with second place being Rudy Gobert at +1100, followed by Bay Adebayo at +1200. Wembanyama was second in DPOY voting a year ago and should take a step forward, especially considering the improved talent around him.
Will he win MVP? Let’s not get carried away. Wembanyama very likely has MVPs in his future, but that award goes not only to an elite individual performer – which he will be – but also to someone who lifts his team to a top three (or at least top six) finish. That does not happen, the Spurs are improved and could make the play-in, but will not finish in a place to win Wembanyama the award.
Could he finish in the top five in MVP voting? It’s possible, not likely given the depth of competition, but possible. Our partners at DraftKings have him ninth in MVP odds, which seems about right.
Wembanyama fantasy perspective
This is courtesy of Raphielle Johnson of NBC Sportswho looked at how big a leap Wembanyama can make this season.
When an athlete arrives on the professional sports scene with the hype that Wembanyama has received, it is much more likely that they will fail to reach said heights. His rookie campaign did not disappoint, where the Spurs start Wemby with the “training wheels” starting him along with another big in Zach Collins. Given his nimble frame, the thinking was that Collins would serve as a buffer for the physical play that Wembanyama would likely pursue. The only issue for him early on was a sprained ankle suffered just before Christmas, as the Spurs limited the rookie phenom’s minutes until mid-January.
Wembanyama went on to win Rookie of the Year and finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting behind compatriot Rudy Gobert. Add in what he did during the Paris Olympics, and there seems to be a lingering sense of, “I hope you had fun because the future is mine.”
As good as Wembanyama was as a rookie, this is exciting (for fans, the Spurs, and fantasy managers who have him listed) and terrifying (for opponents and those who don’t have Wemby listed) at the same time. I don’t know what his exact numbers will look like, but I’m counting on the addition of Chris Paul to help make things easier for Wembanyama in terms of where he gets the ball offensively and how much work he has to do to score. Defensively, having a season’s worth of references to learn could propel him to four blocks per game, minimum (he averaged 3.6 last season).
He is the undisputed top pick in dynasty leagues, and in editorials, Wembanyama is on a very short list of picks for that spot. As long as he stays healthy, the sky is the limit for the Spurs sensation. I expect him to win Defensive Player of the Year this season. As for Most Valuable Player, that award tends to favor players whose teams are bona fide contenders. I’m not sure San Antonio will reach those heights in 2024-25, but he’ll get his hands on that trophy soon enough.
