Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for Thursday’s NBA slate, featuring Jaylen Brown and the Celtics, plus endorsements for Luka Doncic and Mike Conley.
Jaylen Brown O/U 23.5 Points at Wizards
Boston Celtics Team Total O/U 123.5 Points at Wizards
Happy Birthday, Jaylen Brown! The Celtics are heavy favorites in Washington after the 132-point outing over the Knicks and rightfully so.
However, the Celtics Team Total of 123.5 points is insanely high and Brown’s point of 23.5 is correct. The hype of the Celtics’ ring ceremony is over and this is a road game against one of the bottom feeders in the NBA, leaving me with the impression that Boston will not come out shooting or making 29-of-61 three-pointers ( 48%).
Of those 132 points, Brown scored 23 points in 30 minutes on 7-of-18 shooting (5-of-9 from three). Brown now has birthday juju in his corner and a 23.5 line against a much worse defense.
I played Brown Over 23.5 Points at -120 odds and the Celtics Team Total Under 123.5 at -110 odds. I’d go to 25-plus for Brown (+100) and down to 121.5 for Boston’s Team Total.
Choose: Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points (1.5u), Celtics Team Total Under 123.5 (1u)
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Luka Doncic O/U 49.5 PRA vs. Spurs
Luka Doncic opened last season with 33 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists against the Spurs, but this year, he didn’t play at all in the preseason.
Doncic was rested with a calf contusion and that will bode wonderfully or horribly for him in the season opener. Dallas is working Klay Thompson into the mix along with a few other pieces, so Doncic won’t have to be relied on as heavily.
Last year the excitement of Victor Wembanyama making his NBA debut in San Antonio against Dallas was all over the air, while this is season two for Wemby and a home game in Dallas. I like Doncic to go Under his 49.5 PRA line (-120) down to 47.5.
Choose: Luka Doncic Under 49.5 PRA (1u)
Mike Conley O/U 15.5 PRA vs. Kings
Mike Conley had a less-than-stellar debut scoring five points on 1-for-7 from the field, four rebounds and two assists in 20 minutes. Conley was replaced down the stretch against the Lakers for Donte DiVincenzo and others, which was the right move.
With Conley on the floor, the Timberwolves were outscored by 23 points in the first half and now he faces a backcourt of D’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, DeMar DeRozan, and Keegan Murray.
I don’t think Conley will be effective enough or see enough minutes to exceed his point total (8.5) or PRA line of 15.5. I played Conley Under 15.5 PRA at -125 odds.
Choose: Mike Conley Under 15.5 PRA (1u)
Season Record: 5-2 (71.4%) +3.3 units
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sprinklers
Victor Wembanyama First Basket/First Point (+500)
Wemby will probably earn the most tips giving the Spurs the first possession of the game. Whenever that happens, the big man is usually the play if he’s the No. 1 scoring option and Wemby is the one with a 25.5 prop line.
Jaylen Brown First Basket/First Point (+500) and 30-plus points (+275)
It’s Brown’s Birthday, so I’m sprinkling the first basket (+470) and 30-plus points (+250) on the Celtics’ star. Brown has scored 30-plus against the Wizards in four of the past eight meetings.
De’Aaron Fox 30+ points (+340) – King of the Court Pick
DraftKings has a promotion of the highest PRA pick every night that rewards people (see ad for more information). I nailed Anthony Davis as the leader on opening night and got a $93 good bet. On day 2, LaMelo Ball won (53 PRA) and I had Damian Lillard (45). Today, I’m rolling with De’Aaron Fox against the Timberwolves, but don’t hate on Jaylen Brown or Nikola Jokic.
Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff and tools? Look at the EXPERT NBA Predictions NBC Sports page for moneyline, spread and total picks for each of the games on today’s calendar!
