NBA Fantasy Rookies Who Could Surprise in Year 1
The 2024 draft class has been widely criticized, but it will effect the fantasy landscape.
The worst rookie class of the last 20 years, 2013-14, produced three players who finished with a theoretically draft-worthy fantasy ranking (there are 156 players listed in a standard league, so players who ranked at or above 156th). That was the infamous Anthony Bennett sketch. However, for all its faults, that class continued to have great fantasy impacts in the short- (Michael Carter-Williams), medium- (CJ McCollum), and long-term (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert).
Most years, newcomers have an even bigger impact. About three rookies per season finish with a top rank of 100 on average — a rank equivalent to a regular fantasy starter. In a few recent seasons, we’ve seen double-digit rookies ranked above 156th.
This rookie class will likely be worse than several recent draft classes, but the first-year players will still make an impact next fantasy season. With the expectations so low, the rookies who succeed could provide added value.
Let’s take a look at some newcomers who might surprise:
Yves MissyNew Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are in an interesting spot. They have a deep roster, plenty of talent and a potential superstar, yet they are widely projected as an average team in the Western Conference. Part of their problem is their inconsistent roster. Offensively, their top six players all play either point guard or power forward. On defense, those same six include two lock-in wing defenders, one player who defends guards, and three players you hope to cover up on the opposing team’s aging powerhouse. Notably missing: anyone who plays center.
Enter Missi, a 20-year-old from Baylor selected with the 21st pick in last June’s draft. While professional lineups for draft prospects are often problematic, one name is inevitable for Missi: Clint Capela. If Missi hits like a pro, then his skill set will likely be similar to Capela’s game. Strong defensive fundamentals, high athleticism, weak shooting, good rebounding and around-the-rim finishing. In the seasons when Capela averaged between 23 and 27 minutes per game, he was a top-100 fantasy pick despite terrible free throw percentages, backed up by high field goal percentages and solid defensive stats. That probably represents an absolute best-case scenario outcome for Missi, but it’s not entirely unrealistic if he can secure the starting job.
The Pelicans don’t have much depth at center heading into the season, giving Missi an unusually smooth path to minutes. It’s possible he could start the year as a starter, but nothing is guaranteed. Veteran Daniel Theis is capable of handling decent minutes. Also, the Pelicans’ front office knows they have the weakest center depth in the league, and they’re likely brainstorming ways to address that.
Kyle FilipowskiUtah Jazz
At first glance, Filipowski is buried on the Jazz’s depth chart. However, what if they finally find a reasonable deal for John Collins? Walker Kessler shined as a rookie, but the Jazz were particularly hesitant to commit to the shot-blocking specialist. There are several teams (like the Pelicans) in desperate need of big man help, and the Jazz would probably be happy to part ways with either of their top two centers. Filipowski projects to have a well-rounded and fantasy-friendly skill set, but the main obstacle is the workload. It may be far-fetched to imagine both Collins and Kessler being sent away in trades, but it’s more plausible for the Jazz than it would be for most other teams.
Matas BuzelisChicago Bulls
Like many of the top names from June’s draft, Buzelis was drafted as a backup. The Rockets added Reed Sheppard to a backcourt that already had two recent Top 4 picks and their biggest free agency acquisition in a decade. The Pistons selected Ron Holland, who theoretically plays the same position as their No. 5 pick from last season, Ausar Thompson. The Trail Blazers drafted Donovan Clinga, but they still have Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams. The Heat selected Kel’el Ware, who will sit behind Bam Adebayo. Those are the most prominent examples, but there are more — it was a bizarre theme of this year’s draft. All of these rookies would likely have fantasy value if the starters above them weren’t available, but their current upside is limited.
Buzelis could be a surprise pick carving out fantasy value even as Patrick Williams stays healthy. Simply put, I’m not impressed with Williams, and I think Buzelis could thrive in Chicago. Williams was the number 4 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, and he was once seen as a fundamental building block for the franchise. He is still only 23 years old, but few already foresee a high ceiling for him. He signed a four-year extension this summer worth $18 million per year. At first glance, that may seem like a hefty salary, but in the modern NBA, that’s what a fifth starter or sixth man earns. The Bulls recognize that his role will be limited going forward.
Buzelis fell to number 11 on draft night, but he was often projected in the Top 5, a reflection of his incredible athleticism and great frame. He can rack up defensive stats, averaging 2.0 steals and 2.0 blocks during Summer League play. I am also impressed by his intangibles. For example, he is clearly trying to improve his biggest weaknesses: his lack of aggressiveness and inability to get to the free throw line have often been highlighted as a weakness in draft profiles. However, after a Summer League game, it was specifically mentioned as a strength.
It won’t happen right away, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Buzelis takes the starting power forward spot away from a healthy Williams during the season.
Zachary RisacherAtlanta Hawks
Based on early ADPs, Risacher is going unusually late for the No. 1 overall pick. As of late September, he is the 10th rookie to be selected at Yahoo. An ADP outside the top 150 overall and outside the top five rookies could be unprecedented for a healthy top pick.
The “surprise” I predict is that this low ADP is still too optimistic.
The Hawks are set up to be a competitive team, as BetMGM’s over-unders project them as the No. 9 seed, right in the middle of the Eastern Conference race for the Play-In Tournament. They have more centers than they have minutes, so there is limited flexibility or appetite for small ball lineups to carve out extra minutes for their big wings. Besides Trae Young, Jalen Johnson is their most important player, and he will continue to dominate the minutes at power forward. Risacher’s minutes, then, will likely have to come either as the backup power forward or at small forward. However, there is also competition at forward, most notably from De’Andre Hunter, the Hawks’ third-highest paid player. Unlike most top picks, Risacher’s floor for minutes is very low.
However, it is not only about the potentially low charge of minutes. What if Risacher struggles to adjust to the NBA level? He’s a 19-year-old undersized wing shooter who shot less than 70 percent from the free throw line last season. There are three red flags in that one sentence when it comes to 2024-25 fantasy value. He showed minimal ability to record assists. Although Risacher profiles as someone with defensive potential, he likely won’t block shots under coach Quin Snyder. During Snyder’s career, Jalen Johnson is the only non-center to ever block more than 0.5 shots per game. This is not strictly due to personnel, as multiple wings peaked that mark the season before or after being coached by Snyder.
Risacher could work as a long-term prospect. However, for this season, I think many fantasy managers will be surprised at how ineffective he is. I wouldn’t target him in fantasy drafts, even in deeper leagues.
