Rookie of the Year is the hardest award to predict this season.
There is generally a formula to look for: Skilled player on a rebuilding/development team who will have the ball in his hands a lot and have the opportunity to put up numbers. Victor Wembanyama was that a season ago, and before him Paolo Banchero (2023), LaMelo Ball (2021), Ja Morant (2020), Luka Doncic (2019) and others fit the mold.
However, this year’s draft class is light on guys who fit that mold. No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher is a development project on a team with Trae Young, while No. 2 pick Alex Sarr will get limited touches at the five in Washington behind Jonas Valanciunas. The list goes on and on. This is not done with much confidence, but here is my prediction:
2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year:
1. Zach Edey
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Stephen Castle
The Grizzlies’ Edey won’t put up the “you can’t ignore me” numbers of most previous ROY winners, but what he will do is start games and play a key role for what could be a top six team. in the West. He will play significant minutes in significant games, and if that happens, it will put him ahead of his colleagues in this race. Edey isn’t often flashy but he is 7’4″ and is very good at using that size and being 7’4″ on both ends of the court, something Morant and the Grizzlies will take full advantage of.
The Rockets’ Sheppard was the standout at Summer League, where he averaged 20 points, 5.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 2.7 steals per game, all with a solid 57% true shooting percentage. The challenge will be Ime Udoka getting Sheppard enough minutes. Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green are the starting guards but behind them are Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Dillon Brooks can play some two in big lines, and Aaron Holiday is there too. Will Sheppard get enough running to win this?
Castle is my favorite player in this class, but how much time does he get at the point with Chris Paul on the roster? Rob Dillingham could put up numbers in Minnesota as a bench scorer, and Dalton Knecht’s shooting should gain favor with JJ Redick in Los Angeles, if he gets into the rotation and puts up numbers he could garner votes as well.
Or, this is the kind of year where someone comes out of nowhere to win the award.
