Each of these breakout candidates, one from each of the past five draft classes, is poised to take a significant step forward. Whether they’re already showing flashes of brilliance or still quietly developing, these players are ready to elevate their game — and contribute the most to their teams’ futures.
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
Edited second in 2023
Miller’s rookie season really breaks into two distinct parts. In his first 38 games, he averaged 14.7 points on 53.6 percent true shooting, which is solid for a rookie. In particular, you are asked to find your position on a wrestling team like Charlotte. He was lethal at draining 3s off the catch, but pretty inconsistent in other departments.
Then, something changed. Over his last 35 games, starting in late January, Miller has stepped it up – 20.3 points per game, 56.4 percent true shooting. He played more minutes, had a higher usage rate, and his efficiency increased across every area of the court when creating shots for himself. Check this out:
First 38 games | Last 35 games | |
Restricted area | 57.1% | 64.9% |
In the paint | 36.6% | 39.7% |
Medium range | 46.5% | 52.2% |
3 pointers | 23.1% | 32.8% |
That’s a newbie figuring things out in real time. Miller created for himself, taking stronger angles to the rim, absorbing contact, and showing newfound confidence with his mid-range fadeaways and deep pull-up 3s. By the end of the season, he looked like a legitimate winner.
But here’s where it gets really interesting: LaMelo Ball was out for the season starting in late January, exactly when Miller’s numbers started to explode. Coincidence? Probably not. Without LaMelo on the floor, Miller had more freedom to operate, and that’s where things could get tough going forward. We all know LaMelo is the number one guard, and having a guy like that should make life easier for Miller, giving him cleaner looks and more assisted buckets. But if Miller is going to continue his growth as a playmaker and creator himself, there needs to be some balance there.
Think about last season: When Miller played alongside LaMelo, he had the ball in his hands just 5.3 percent of the time. That’s Royce O’Neale territory. But when LaMelo was sidelined, that number jumped to 9.6 percent — essentially Paul George levels. So, what happens when LaMelo returns? Is he willing to let Miller cook? Because if he does, that could be the key to Miller’s next leap, and from a pure basketball standpoint, there’s no question that Miller is ready for it. The only question is how well he and LaMelo figure out how to coexist and maximize each other’s games.
Ryan Dunn, Phoenix Suns
Edited on the 28th in 2024
Dunn was easily the best defensive prospect in the 2024 draft. At 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan, he can shift through multiple positions, disrupt passing lanes, block shots — you name it. His defensive IQ is off the charts. Dunn flies around on defense, making impure rotations, contesting shots at the rim, and generally making life miserable for opponents. In a league increasingly defined by versatile wing defenders, Dunn has the potential to be a lock on the Herb Jones level.
But the big question mark? His shooting. As a sophomore at Virginia, Dunn attempted just 35 3s in 34 games, hitting just 20 percent. That’s not just inconsistent — it’s borderline unplayable in today’s NBA. So, when the Suns nabbed him at 28, there was understandable skepticism. You knew what you were getting defensively, but could he survive offensively?
Here’s the twist: In four preseason games with the Suns, Dunn made 12 of his 27 attempts from beyond the arc. A small sample, to be sure, but there are reasons for optimism. His form looks a lot smoother, especially with how he uses his legs, and the fact that he’s shooting more often shows a level of confidence that just wasn’t there at Virginia. I spoke to scouts before the draft, and several insisted his shot was reworked during pre-draft workouts. One executive even told me I would regret ranking him in the 30s. After some thought and more digging, I moved him up to 4 p.m. Even that could prove too low if his jumper holds.
If Dunn shot even 35 percent from 3 on decent volume — not elite, just average — he’d be a lottery pick. If he shoots like he did in preseason, we’re talking over 10, maybe even five. He is so special defensively. And offensively, it’s not just the shooting. Dunn is a smart passer, a good screener and an effective finisher at the rim.
And here’s why this matters for Phoenix: Defense and depth were its biggest question marks coming into the season. Dunn doesn’t solve everything, but he can make a real impact on both fronts. If his shot holds up, he gives the Suns a versatile, two-way role player who can ease some of the load on their stars. Yes, Phoenix’s season still hinges on the health of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. But if Dunn keeps hitting jumpers? He could be the kind of supporting piece that raises their ceiling.
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Edited on the 12th in 2022
In the last episode of The Kevin O’Connor Showa listener named Jacob asked me: Besides inexperience, what is the biggest obstacle preventing the Thunder from winning a championship? I said the answer is a second superstar behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. We know what SGA is capable of. But Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren both faltered in the postseason. Fair, considering their youth. But if a title is the expectation, then one of them will have to blossom.
Williams seems like the most likely candidate. This will be his third season, and he has already shown flashes. But his biggest drawback in the playoffs was his reluctance to shoot 3s. He spent a few open looks of the catch, and was reluctant to pull up from the dribble. He attempted fewer than four per game all season. Things change this preseason though. Williams shoots from 3, and attempted 10 shots in 33 minutes of play.
If Williams keeps hitting 3-pointers off the dribble like the one above, it changes the complexion of what this Thunder team can be. Now, if Williams doesn’t take that next step? OKC is still fun, still young, but it’s probably stuck in the same “big, but not champions” category. Without that second star, the Thunder will hit a wall. But if Jalen steps up, we’re talking about a team that’s built to win now, not just in the future. If he doesn’t, we’re probably waiting another year or two before this team really breaks through.
Immanuel Quickley, Toronto Raptors
Drafted 25th in 2020 by the Knicks
The trade of Quickley to the Raptors last season unlocked a new level to his game. With the Knicks, Quickley put up solid numbers – 15 points and 2.5 assists per game – but after the trade to Toronto, those numbers jumped to 18.6 points and 6.8 assists. Quickley went from Sixth Man to starter, and his offensive role was enhanced. In New York, Quickley got 41 touches per game and held the ball for just 3.2 minutes of possession time. With the Raptors, those numbers exploded to 75 touches and 6.2 minutes of possession per game. That’s almost double the time to run the offense, make decisions and create plays.
The Raptors rewarded Quickley with a five-year, $162.5 million contract, which says a lot about how they feel about him. They didn’t needs sign the extension when they did.
That extra volume explains the massive increase in assists, and it’s also why he’s become such a critical piece for the Raptors. If Quickley can continue this trend, he has the potential to be a cornerstone in Toronto’s offense.
Deuce McBride, New York Knicks
Edited 36th in 2021
New York’s decision to trade Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for Karl-Anthony Towns reshapes its frontcourt, no doubt, but the ripple effects hit the backcourt just as hard. With DiVincenzo gone, the Knicks lost a clutch playoff scorer and someone who provided stability on both ends of the floor. So now, the question becomes: Who steps up? Enter Miles “Deuce” McBride. Although smaller than DiVincenzo, McBride brings ferocious defense, a knockout jumper and dynamic shot creation that has only grown since last season when the Knicks moved Quickley and RJ Barrett in a trade for OG Anunoby.
During his final two months last season, McBride averaged 30 minutes per game, scoring just under 12 points while shooting 39 percent from 3. The Knicks felt comfortable moving Quickley and Barrett because they had faith in DiVincenzo and McBride — and now they are . doubling down on Deuce trading DiVincenzo as well.
The Knicks have many players ahead of McBride in the rotation. Jalen Brunson will take the lead offensively, with Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart working as versatile wings, and Towns anchoring the middle. But McBride is positioned to be a potential Sixth Man of the Year candidate. He proved the Knicks right once before. And now, with even more responsibility, Deuce must make another leap for New York to take advantage of its new look.
