Entering the 2024 NFL season, the last of the four teams in the NFC West most experts expected to win the division title were the Arizona Cardinals. After all, the Cardinals are coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons and haven’t captured the crown since 2015.
Since then, the defending conference champion San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams have both finished atop the NFC West three times, while the Seattle Seahawks have won the division twice.
Arizona hasn’t given the pundits much reason to change their stance in the first month of the season. The club lost three of its first four games, a stretch that culminated with a 42-14 home setback against the Washington Commanders.
The Cardinals appeared to be headed for yet another defeat in Week 5 when they trailed the 49ers 23-10 on the road at halftime. But they began to turn their campaign around at that point, rallying for a 24-23 victory that ignited the current stretch during which they won five of six contests and took possession of first place in the division.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, Arizona (6-4) is now the favorite to win the NFC West. The model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and exceeds $7,000 for $100 players on most rated. NFL picks since its inception, currently gives the Cardinals a 48.2% chance of winning the division title.
Arizona will look for its fifth straight win as it heads to Seattle for a showdown with the division rival Seahawks on Sunday. The four-game winning streak is the team’s longest since opening the 2021 campaign with seven straight wins.
The Cardinals followed a 34–13 loss at Green Bay in Week 6 with a 17–15 triumph over the Los Angeles Chargers. They edged the Dolphins 28-27 in Miami a week later, then posted convincing 29-9 and 31-6 home wins against the Chicago Bears and New York Jets, respectively.
Kyler Murray is only 16th in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes but has thrown just three interceptions on the season and one in his last five games. The 27-year-old is a major threat with his legs as well, as he is second on the Cardinals in both rushing yards (371) and TD runs (four).
James Conner leads a ground attack that ranks fifth in the league with an average of 149.4 yards per contest. The two-time Pro Bowler has posted four 100-yard performances this season and is 303 away from his second straight 1,000-yard campaign.
Now, Arizona has a pair of meetings with the Seahawks sandwiched around a road contest against the 8-2 Minnesota Vikings, starting with a trip to Seattle this Sunday. The Cardinals have lost five straight matchups against the Seahawks, including a 20-10 setback in The Emerald City last season.
Seattle (5-5) started 2024 by winning its first three games, but has lost five of its last six after falling to the Rams 26-20 in overtime last weekend. Despite their current struggles, the Seahawks are second in the NFL in passing (260.9 yards) thanks to Geno Smith, who ranks second in the league with 2,781 yards.
The model currently says Seattle wins the NFC West 21.2% of the time, but a win against Arizona would increase its chances to 29.4%. With a loss, however, its outlook for the division title drops to just 4.4%.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals will see their prospects rise to 60.4% with a win on Sunday. And even with a loss, they would still be the favorites to take the crown at 31.2%.
San Francisco is second in the league in total offense (398.9 yards) and sixth in total defense (302.2 yards allowed) but has been wildly inconsistent this season, thanks in part to a slew of injuries to key players. It sits at 5-5 with a 21.5% chance of winning the NFC West for a third straight time, with a win at Green Bay (7-3) this weekend increasing its prospects to 26.7% and a loss dropping them to 11/3%.
After losing four of their first five games this year, the Rams came back from their Week 6 bye to win four of five and even their record. However, they currently win the division in just 9.1% of the model’s simulations and would see their chances increase to just 13.7% with a home triumph over the Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) on Sunday Night Football, while a loss would drop them to 4, 8%
The model calls for close contests for all four NFC West teams on Sunday, with the Arizona-Seattle showdown one of three games with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the 12th week of the season. you can find those top NFL Week 12 picks at SportsLine.
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