8-6 betting week for us, including a 3-2 ATS week on our top five picks. Jameis Winston failed me again, but the Houston Texans blowing out the Dallas Cowboys felt like the lock of the century. Fading the Tennessee Titans was also profitable this year. They are now 1-9 ATS!
This week in the NFLCaleb Williams faces his second division opponent, we get a Dan Quinn revenge game in Dallas plus the “Harbaugh Bowl.” If you haven’t already, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code so you can earn money too. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Everyone NFL sports betting probability courtesy of BetMGM.
Top five picks ATS record: 23-26-1
Overall ATS record: 75-88-3
Straight up record: 102-64
Thursday, 8:15 PM ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Russell Wilson is 4-0 SU and ATS as the Steelers quarterback, even though he hasn’t thrown a single touchdown against the worst pass defense in the NFL last week Throwing for touchdowns won’t really matter Thursday night because the weather in Cleveland is supposed to be terrible. That benefits the Steelers more than the Browns.
The Browns have the fourth worst rushing offense in the NFL (88.5 yards per game), and Nick Chubb has not gone over 52 rushing yards in any of his four games played this season. Now, he’ll have to carry the load behind a battered offensive line that lost Dawand Jones last week. Give me the Steelers to cover in a low-scoring affair.
The choice: Steelers -3.5
Projected score: Steelers 16-10
Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox and fubotry for free)
It’s one of the best rivalries in the NFL, even if the Washington team has changed its name a few times. This is actually the first matchup in series history where the Cowboys enter the contest three games under .500, while the Commanders are three games over .500. It’s a Dan Quinn revenge game, and I’d bet the Cowboys miss him. Dallas ranked top five in scoring defense last year (18.5), but ranks second worst this season (29.3 points per game).
I still believe Jayden Daniels’ rib problem is bothering him, but this Washington team is much better than Dallas right now. Since Dak Prescott went down with his season-ending injury, the Cowboys have been outscored 68-16. If you’re still not convinced to put the big number on, remember that teams are 5-0 ATS as 10.5-plus-point favorites this year.
The choice: Commanders -10.5
Projected score: Commanders 27-13
Will Jayden Daniels rush for a touchdown this week? Bet their props at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Most important+)
Blind betting against the Titans has been a great strategy this year. They are the first team to start 1-9 ATS since the 2007 Baltimore Ravens, and are on pace for the worst ATS record since at least 1970. Will Levis has shown improvement over the past two weeks, but this team kills himself with punishments (some controversial, yes).
Honestly, this bet is more about supporting the Texans than fading the Titans. Houston might be ready to take off now that Nico Collins is back. The Texans are 5-1 when Collins is in the lineup catching passes, and 2-3 when he isn’t. Plus, CJ Stroud is almost a different quarterback at home than he is on the road. He averages 87.8 more passing yards per game in Houston than away from H-Town, which is the BIGGEST difference in home and road passing yards per game in NFL history.
The choice: Texans -8
Projected score: Texans 26-17
Sunday, 4:05 pm ET (CBS, Most important+)
What about this Bo Nix guy? He leads all rookies in passing touchdowns (14) and total touchdowns (19) this season. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye combined for 19 total touchdowns!
Last week against the terrible Atlanta Falcons defense, Nix became the first rookie ever to complete 80% of his passes while throwing for 300 yards and four touchdowns in a game. Speaking of bad defenses, the Raiders are last in takeaways (5) and turnover margin (-15). They also allow 28.5 points per game, which is fourth worst in the NFL. The Broncos dropped 34 points on the Raiders in a 16 point win earlier this season, so I’ll be looking to score an easy W with the 5.5 point number this week. Nix is actually 4-0 ATS when favored this year.
The choice: Broncos -6
Projected score: Broncos 24-17
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (Fox and fubotry for free)
The 49ers are on a streak of 37 straight games as favorites, which is the fourth-longest streak by any team since 1970. It’s guaranteed because the 49ers are 5-5 despite being favored in every game this year. Against the Seattle Seahawks last week, Brock Purdy’s unit scored 17 points, accumulated a total of 277 yards and averaged 4.9 yards per game. All of those numbers ranked worst or tied for worst in a game for the 49ers this season.
I don’t have any amazing facts to back up my pick for this game, but the 49ers have to make something work right now. SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh’s simulations say the 49ers have just a 32.1% chance of making the playoffs. They need this win.
The choice: 49ers +2
Projected score: 49ers 24-23
Other picks from Week 12
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