NFL Week 3 odds, picks, best bets: Bucs roll against Broncos, Texans-Vikings shootout, sneaky two-leg teaser |Max Sporty|

For the second straight year, we collectively counted out Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. And for the second year in a row, they’re making us all look really stupid. Tampa is off to a 2-0 start and Baker is playing great football. During his last 10 starts, he leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (22) and is tied with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes for the most wins (eight, including the postseason).

Tampa’s defense is getting beat up on the back end, but that shouldn’t be a problem against this Broncos offense that is really struggling to get anything done on the field with Bo Nix under center. Denver would like to run the ball, but I don’t think it will be as easy as the stats imply. Tampa’s rushing defense numbers are skewed by playing Jayden Daniels and some long runs from the Lions. The Broncos need to win with the pass if they want to take down the Bucs.

Nix has attempted 47 passes so far this season, is averaging 5 yards per attempt, has four picks and has yet to throw a touchdown. I’m willing to take that gamble.

On the offensive side, anyone who thought maybe Dave Canales was creating the magic sure feels off base at this point, with the Panthers limping to 13 total points and throwing in Bryce Young for Andy Dalton. New OC Liam Cohen has moved Chris Godwin to the slot more often and he, along with Jaleel McLaughlin, could feed into this matchup with Patrick Surtain II likely shadowing Mike Evans. This is also a sneaky Rachaad White spot, with Kenneth Walker III and the Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren combo both having reasonable success against Denver’s run defense.

If the Bucs get a lead, they’ll hammer the ball and Todd Bowles will blitz out of Nix as he tries to mount a comeback. The Bucs have one cruise control win at home so far this season against a rookie quarterback and questionable offense.

Sign me up for another one.

Pick: Pirates (-6.5)

Best Bets Week 2: 0-5
Best Bets YTD: 2-8

Other best bets

Teaser: Chargers (+7) at Steelers

This game could be crazy low scoring with two striking offenses. The difference between the two teams is the quarterback, though. Justin Fields has been a nice surprise this season, but I’m not sure he’s ready for a Bolts defense that has shut down questionable offenses in Vegas and Carolina so far this season, giving up less than 150 yards per game through the air. Arthur Smith won’t attack vertically, which means the Steelers have to win going forward by pounding the ball. I don’t expect another monster game from JK Dobbins but I wouldn’t put anything past the Chargers in the run game with the way their offensive line is playing. Neutralizing the Steelers forward would allow Justin Herbert to take some shots at potential breakout Quentin Johnston. This is the Jim Nantz/Tony Romo game and it should be a good one, but I’ll take the Bolts to find a way to win and definitely keep it within a touchdown regardless.

Teaser: 49ers (-1) at Rams

The Niners are in the second leg of back-to-back road games here, so it’s not an easy spot, especially against a division rival. But we’ve seen Kyle Shanahan dominate Sean McVay in recent years and now he’s got the Rams at their most vulnerable. Multiple offensive linemen for Los Angeles went on injured reserve this week and Matthew Stafford will miss both of his top weapons in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Deebo Samuel is missing as well, but this looms as a potential Brandon Aiyuk breakout and George Kittle won’t be easy to deal with either. If the Niners get a lead it’s Jordan Mason time against a defense no longer sporting Aaron Donald. Putting up the full touchdown is doable but difficult — I certainly expect the 49ers to find a way to win.

Texans/Vikings Over 46.5

I don’t want to call the Vikings offense an unstoppable force with Sam Darnold, but as long as Justin Jefferson is out there, he’s going to produce big numbers. Just kidding — he actually played great football without Jefferson out there. With Jefferson on the field, Darnold charged down the field from his own end zone. Houston’s defense profiles as a potentially elite unit, especially the way Derek Stingley Jr. plays, but the Vikings’ protection up front and weapons give them enough to answer any scores the Texans fire. And I think there will be plenty against Brian Flores’ hyper-aggressive blitz defense — this year CJ Stroud is 15-for-19 for 151 yards, one touchdown and no picks against the blitz. The Texans offensive line can hold up and Nico Collins/Tank Dell are lethal deep/explosive play weapons in those situations. I expect a vague back and forth thing here.

Which picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see subs should you lock in now? Visit SportsLine to see which teams are winning and cover the spread, all from a tested computer model that returned well over $7,000.and find out.

Lions/Cardinals Over 51.5

The Cardinals have already been involved in two high-scoring affairs this season, going back and forth with the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 and hanging a forty burger on the stricken Rams last week. Detroit’s defense is much improved and it may be a tough sled in the run game for Arizona, but Kyler Murray is playing some Big Boy football already this season and should be able to keep it up against a Lions secondary that is still finding its footing with plenty. of new pieces added. It’s hard not to be impressed with Kyler and the weapons he has should find success against Detroit. Marvin Harrison Jr., was incredible last week and left some yards on the field. Trey McBride’s usage is through the roof and he may be slated for a breakout game soon. Detroit isn’t afraid to keep up with anyone and Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams/Sam LaPorta give them offside weapons to engage in a shootout.

Panthers (+5.5) at Raiders

GULP. Who doesn’t love a good, old dead cat bounce game? It’s borderline literal for this one, with the smelly Carolina Panthers replanting the feline mascot. Bryce Young just got benched, which means the entire team 1) should rally around Andy Dalton and 2) know that no one’s job is safe. The Raiders are playing well, but I don’t think they will run away with this game. They were involved in a low-scoring close first half against the Chargers before Jim Harbaugh’s squad pulled away and they miraculously stormed back against the Ravens. Dalton will give Carolina a higher floor offensively — it’s impossible to be lower — and I expect the Raiders to try to win this game with the ground game almost entirely. That opens the back door for Ginger King’s worst case scenario.