NFL Week 5 odds, picks, best bets: Jaguars notch first win of the season, Dolphins send Patriots into spiral |Max Sporty|

The first month of the 2024 season is now in the rearview mirror, and let’s just say it hasn’t been the happiest of returns to the league from a betting perspective. Almost across the board, the books were coming out on the cast of characters, including yours truly, on the CBS Sports Expert Picks page treading water to varying degrees.

What is the reason that the books surpass us? Well, in part, it’s because these games were remarkably tight. Through Week 4, 39 games have been decided by eight points or less, which is the most through the first month in league history. So, we are in an unprecedented place. That said, we move on to Week 5, where we’ll look to turn the tide, starting with my five locks of the week.

2024 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 7-13
ATS: 24-37-3
ML: 34-30

Everyone NFL odds via SportsLine deal odds.

• Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

New England is in rough shape coming out of the first month of the season. While it enjoyed a brief moment of optimism after upsetting the Bengals in Week 1, it’s been downhill ever since. The offense is regressing on the week and, to make matters worse, is starting to hit hard. Specifically, the O-line is where things look more dire on the injury front. Already a unit lacking high-end talent, New England could be without starting center David Andrews and rookie offensive tackle Caedan Wallace, both of whom suffered injuries against San Francisco last week.

Sure, the Dolphins look abysmal on offense against the Titans with Tyler Huntley under center, but it could be a wash considering how the Patriots offense is shaping up.

Really, this is a pick on Miami’s ability to get off the field as it ranks No. 1 in the NFL in opponent third-down conversion (23.81%). New England’s offense ranks 24th in the league on third down. All this game may need is a single explosive play on offense, and the Dolphins, even with Huntley, have more players capable of doing just that than the Patriots.

Projected score: Dolphins 17, Patriots 13
The choice: Dolphins +1

• Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

Don’t look now, but things are starting to click a bit for the Bears offense. Over the past two weeks, Caleb Williams has been much more productive through the air and is coming off his best statistical game of the season (106.6 passer rating vs. Rams) in Week 4. While this team still has some growing pains to go through. , it has a favorable matchup at home here against the Panthers, who are giving up a league-high 32.3 points per game this season. Andy Dalton has lifted the floor of Carolina’s offense since taking over for Bryce Young but isn’t someone who should instill much fear, especially against this Bears defense that is just outside the top 10 in the league in fewest yards through a game. allowed and are tired of the third most takeaways. Also, Chicago has been pretty automatic at home, as it is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS at Soldier Field in its past seven games, including five straight sweeps.

Projected score: Bears 27, Panthers 20
The choice: Bears -3.5

Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has an A-rated option in this matchup. Check it out here.

It was a shaky start for Jordan Love in his return to action last week against the Vikings, but the Packers quarterback was able to get his team back into contention late. That flashes the high ceiling I had on this Green Bay squad coming into the year, and I think it’s ready to show it to us again in Los Angeles as a road favorite. The Rams defense has been terrible through the first month, ranking 31st in scoring, 32nd in yards per play allowed and 30th on third down (50% conversion). While all eyes will continue to be on Love as he returns to top form, this could be a Josh Jacobs showcase as the Rams allow a league-worst 165.6 yards on the ground this season.

Projected score: Packers 30, Rams 20
The choice: packers -3.5

Bonus: RJ White is 69-28-2 (+3639) in his last 99 ATS picks involving the Packers, and he’s confident on one team against the spread. look who he takes here.

This could also be a playoff game for the Jaguars as their season — and possibly their careers in Jacksonville — are on the line. The club is 0-4 to start the year, but played the Houston Texans tough in Week 3 and now gets a battered Colts squad that could be down Anthony Richardson (hip) and Jonathan Taylor (high ankle sprain). Indy has also allowed the most total yards per game (399.8) this season, giving Trevor Lawrence and the offense as good a landing spot as ever to rebound. The Jags historically also owned that matchup, winning eight straight in Jacksonville. But again, as we look at the big picture for Jacksonville, it needs this win in the worst way as it is set to leave the US after this game for a two-week stint in London. If the Jaguars don’t change things, Doug Pederson may not be the head coach when they return to state.

Projected score: Jaguars 27, Colts 23
The choice: Jaguars -2.5

• Sunday, 4:05 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

This is strictly a play on the Broncos defense being arguably the best unit in the NFL. Denver’s offense under Bo Nix makes things a little scary because we’re putting up a field goal here, but I have a hard time understanding Las Vegas being able to put up points against this defense. The Broncos are third in the league in scoring defense (13.8 points allowed per game) and second in total defense (256.5 total yards allowed per game). When you match that against a Raiders offense that averages less than 20 points per game, is 20th in the league in total yards per play and is 26th in the league on third down (32.6% conversion rate), I seize my opportunities. that Sean Payton can make the offense move to clear the number.

Projected score: Broncos 21, Raiders 16
The choice: Broncos -2.5

Rest of the set

Pirates at Falcons (Thursday)
Projected score: Pirates 26, Falcons 23
The choice: Pirates +1.5

Jets at Vikings (in London)
Projected score: Jets 24, Vikings 23
The choice: Jets +2.5

Crows at Bengal
Projected score: Ravens 30, Bengals 26
The choice: Ravens -2.5

Bills at Texans
Projected score: Bills 24, Texans 20
The choice: Invoices -1

Browns at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 23, Browns 21
The choice: Browns +3.5

Cardinals at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 30, Cardinals 24
The choice: Cardinals +7.5

Giants at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Giants 17
The choice: Seahawks -6.5

Cowboys at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 24, Cowboys 20
The choice: Steelers -2.5

Saints at Chiefs (Monday)
Projected score: Chiefs 23, Saints 20
The choice: Saints +4.5