Prisco’s Week 4 NFL picks: Ravens cool off unbeaten Bills, Packers hand Vikings first loss |Max Sporty|

is choosing NFL games hard this year or what? Not just against the spread either.

I was 7-9 straight-up last week after all the uncertainty of Week 3, which saw upsets galore and survivor pools explode. That dropped my straight record to 24-24, which tells you how crazy this season is so far. I’m .500 straight-up? what the hell

Contrary to popular belief, it was even worse last week. I went 6-10 to drop my record to 23-22-3. At least I’m over .500 for the ATS picks. Moreover, that record is tied for the lead in our CBSSports.com expert picks. Some experts we are.

So let’s turn it around. We have one more week of September games, and then it’s October, a month where things usually start to crystallize.

Here’s hoping I can sail through this last week of September without much danger. It can’t be worse than last week.

The Cowboys have lost two straight home games, while the Giants impressed by defeating the Browns last week. Dallas has issues on both lines and the Giants passed on Deshaun Watson last Sunday. But the Cowboys will tighten things up in pass protection and the defense will be better. Dallas is back on track.

Choose: Cowboys 27, Giants 19 (Score: Cowboys 20, Giants 15)

Bonus: SportsLine NFL experienced Larry Hartstein is on a 22-8 ATS roll in Cowboys games and we can tell you he is leaning the Super in this prime time matchup against the Giants. Check out which side he’s taking against the spread at SportsLine.

Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

This is a big early division game where both teams are coming off losses. The Saints offense came back to life last week in the loss to the Eagles and now has to play an improved Falcons defense. The Atlanta offense will also be challenged by a solid Saints defense. Look for a low-scoring game with the Saints pulling off the upset.

Choose: Saints 20, Falcons 17

Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which exceeds $7,000 for $100 players on top rated. NFL picks since its inception, like the Saints to cover against the Falcons in Week 4. See the other options the model supports at SportsLine.

Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

The Bengals are 0-3 and just haven’t looked right, especially on defense. The Panthers won behind Andy Dalton last week and now he meets his former team. Look for Dalton to play well against a Bengals defense that is struggling. This will be high scoring, but in the end the Bengals save their season.

Choose: Bengals 31, Panthers 25

Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

The Rams came from behind to beat the 49ers last week, while the Bruins lost in Indianapolis. Chicago doesn’t run the football, which puts a lot of pressure on Caleb Williams. The Rams still have Matthew Stafford, who thrives no matter who he throws out. The Rams get this one behind Stafford and drop the Bears to 1-3.

Choose: Rams 26, Bears 20

Bonus: SportsLine is NFL expert Jason La Canfora has made this game part of his early best bets, every Monday morning on SportsLine. See the rest of his early Week 4 plays here.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Most important+)

This is one of the games of the week. The Vikings are 3-0 and riding high, while the Packers are 2-1 and have won two games with Malik Willis playing quarterback. That’s because the defense was outstanding. Same for the Vikings. That means this should be a low-scoring game. Packers take it.

Choose: Packers 21, Vikings 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Most important+)

The Jaguars are 0-3 and coming off a terrible loss on Monday night, which means this is a short week for a team playing bad football. The Texans weren’t good last week against the Vikings, but CJ Stroud will be back here against a bad Jacksonville defense. Texans take it.

Choose: Texans 30, Jaguars 16

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Most important+)

The Steelers are riding high at 3-0 and their style is traveling well. They are a physical defense that will limit the Colts game and make Anthony Richardson beat them. He won’t. The Steelers and Justin Fields will do enough on offense to pull out a win.

Choose: Steelers 20, Colts 16

Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which exceeds $7,000 for $100 players on top rated. NFL picks since its inception, the Steelers like to cover against the Colts in Week 4. See the other options the model supports at SportsLine.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Most important+)

The Broncos are playing back-to-back road games, but they stayed in West Virginia. They played well last week beating the Bucs, but this is a much tougher defense. That will be a problem for Bo Nix. Aaron Rodgers sparked last week and that continues. Jets big.

Choose: Jets 27, Broncos 17

Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

This is the second straight road game for the Eagles against the NFC South after they beat the Saints last week. The Bucs were terrible last week losing to the Broncos, but this could have been a sandwich game between the Lions and Eagles. The Bucs are so beat up on defense and the offensive line struggled last week. That carries Philadelphia takes it.

Choose: Eagles 23, Bucs 19

Sunday, 4:05 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

This is a second straight road game in a short week for the Commanders, which is tough. The Cardinals played well, but they’re down 1-2 in two pretty close games. I’m looking for Kyler Murray to win a shootout with Jayden Daniels. This will be fun to watch.

Choose: Cardinals 33, commanders 27

Sunday, 4:05 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

This is a long road trip for a Patriots team that isn’t playing well against a 49ers team that has a lot of injuries. The 49ers blew their game against the Rams last week, but they’ll get back on track here. Brock Purdy will play well, while the defense limits a bad Pats offense.

Choose: 49ers 24, Patriots 7

Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (CBS, Most important+)

The status of the quarterback of Chargers Justin Herbert pays attention in this one. If he plays, the Chargers have a chance to win. If he doesn’t, I still think they keep it close. The Chiefs are playing back-to-back road games and they haven’t looked as crisp this season. This will be another close one for them.

Choose: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20

Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (CBS, Most important+)

Both teams are coming off bad home losses. The Raiders were considering a quarterback change, while many people in Cleveland wouldn’t mind one. Deshaun Watson is not playing well. I think he will take it here and play better. The Browns win their second road game of the season.

Choose: Browns 23, Raiders 17

Sunday, 8:20 pm ET (NBC, fubo)

This is a big game for AFC supremacy. The Bills are playing as well as anyone at 3-0, while the Ravens are coming off an impressive road win over Dallas. The Ravens ran it right at the Cowboys and they will do the same in this one. Josh Allen has been outstanding, but how much will he have the football if Derrick Henry goes well? I think the Ravens are on a run to victory.

Choose: Ravens 24, Bills 21

Monday, 7:30 pm ET (ESPN, fubo)

The Titans are 0-3 and the Dolphins are in serious trouble at quarterback without Tua Tagovailoa. Tennessee went into Miami and rallied last year to beat the Dolphins behind Will Levis. He hasn’t been the same quarterback this year, turning it over too much, but I think he can have success in this one. The titans will win it.

Choose: Titans 25, Dolphins 21

Monday, 8:15 PM ET (ABC, fubo)

This is a big test game for the Seahawks. They are 3-0, but the schedule has not been difficult. This game will be. The Lions played well on defense, which will make this a challenge for Geno Smith. The Lions offense, which hasn’t been great, will get going here. Lions take it.

Choose: Lions 27, Seahawks 20