Three weeks from the 2024 NFL season is in the books, and we still have some teams hanging on to unblemished records. At least one of the teams is not a major surprise, with the dominance Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs starting 3-0 for the sixth time of the tenure of coach Andy Reid. Others, however, literally defy the odds.
A long season remains, but the odds also say that a 3-0 start bodes well for a playoff appearance, with roughly 75% of 3-0 clubs making the postseason since 1970. What lies ahead for this year’s unblemished squads? Below, we’ve identified key strengths and weaknesses, and predicted when — or if — their perfect record will fall:
Wins: vs. Cardinals, @ Dolphins, vs. Jaguars
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Highest strength: Josh Allen. What else can we say? The guy has always been an MVP-caliber gun, but even with a remade receiving corps, he’s dominant out of the gate. No one touches it deep with as much conviction right now, and weapons like James Cook and Dalton Kincaid are probably still underrated around the league.
Highest weakness: Defensive health. Sean McDermott’s group had no problem cruising past Trevor Lawrence and Co. in a Jacksonville rout, but with Matt Milano already sidelined at linebacker, bruises to starters like Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson are worth monitoring. Otherwise, the Invoices register as a total package.
Prediction: The Bills narrowly survive the Baltimore Ravens in a thrilling Week 4 matchup to improve to 4-0, but fall to CJ Stroud in another AFC playoff preview in Week 5.
Kansas City Chiefs
Wins: vs. Ravens, @ Bengals, @ Falcons
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Highest strength: Clutch execution. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense remained physical, but Patrick Mahomes came through in crunch time despite a battered supporting cast now missing lead ball carrier Isiah Pacheco. Rashee Rice’s continued emergence as a No. 1 wideout has made them a post-the-catch mismatch.
Highest weakness: Durability. Mahomes has had two starting left tackles this year, and most of the bench is beat up front. The backfield is down to rookie Carson Steele with Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire unavailable, and Rice almost has to make plays out wide with Marquise Brown sidelined for possibly the entire season.
Prediction: The Chiefs defeated the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 5) and New Orleans Saints (Week 6), then edged the San Francisco 49ers (Week 8) following the bye, improving to 7-0 before an upset loss to Todd Bowles’ defense and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9.
Wins: @ Giants, vs. 49ers, vs. Texans
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Highest strength: Brian Flores’ insane defense. Sam Darnold has certainly exceeded expectations, distributing the ball with elite command in Kevin O’Connell’s deep offense, but there may not be a more stifling “D” in the NFL right now Flores’ assembly of physical, versatile veterans continues to put opposing quarterbacks in a tizzy.
Highest weakness: The threat of collapse. Often in Minnesota, another shoe is waiting to drop. Could Darnold return to risky throws if/when the Vikings actually trail a game? Or O’Connell’s lineup losing another key playmaker to injury? Right now, there is no glaring hole that speaks to the work this group has done.
Prediction: The Vikings witness the return of Jordan Love to Lambeau Field in Week 4, where the physicality of Josh Jacobs and a wide defense led by Xavier McKinney ultimately results in Minnesota’s first loss of the season.
Wins: @ Falcons, @ Savages, vs. Chargers
SATISFACTION
Highest strength: Mike Tomlin’s defense, as usual. Justin Fields has controlled the ball well as the replacement (and soon-to-be-permanent?) quarterback, but Steel City is still built on a tenacious “D,” with TJ Watt leading the way off the edge. Each level of the unit has swarming physicality, which is why they allow only 8.7 points per game.
Highest weakness: Fast performance. For all the ground-and-pound tags they’re getting under new coordinator Arthur Smith, this group is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, and that’s with one of the most athletic signal-callers in the NFL in Fields. Injuries up front don’t help, and could present deeper problems as the season progresses.
Prediction: The Steelers endure a slugfest against the Indianapolis Colts (Week 4), forcing Anthony Richardson into multiple turnovers, to improve to 4-0, but can’t quite keep up with the firepower of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5.
Wins: vs. Savages, @ Patriots, vs. Dolphins
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Highest strength: Mike Macdonald’s defensive touch. Seattle entered 2024 with underrated talent at every level of the “D,” and the former Baltimore Ravens coordinator maximized it. Geno Smith has also been crucial in crunch time, but he can be a risk as the defense records top-five numbers in points and yards allowed.
Highest weakness: health Smith remained upright, but his O-line is again under physical duress, and the backfield is also without Kenneth Walker III. Throw in some injuries to key defensive standouts like Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy, and the Seahawks are already struggling in the war of attrition.
Prediction: The Seahawks take the Detroit Lions to the wire in Week 4’s “Monday Night Football” matchup, but ultimately suffer their first loss of Macdonald’s rookie season on the staff.
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