Not many prognosticators had the Minnesota Vikings at 2-0 through two weeks of the season, creating one of the bigger matchups in Week 3 with the Houston Texans. While the Vikings are a surprising 2-0, the Texans have lived up to expectations through two weeks with their 2-0 record.
CJ Stroud has been as good as advertised through two weeks, completing 69.1% of his passes for 494 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions (104.7 rating). Stroud is third in the NFL in yards per attempt since 2023 (8.1) and second in air yards per attempt (8.8). His 43 passes of 25+ yards since 2023 are also tied for second in the NFL.
“I had a bunch of his plays last year,” NFL on CBS broadcaster Ian Eagle told CBS Sports, who is calling Sunday’s game with Charles Davis and Evan Washburn. “To be honest, I was blown away. I just saw smarts. I saw someone who was cool under pressure. I saw a natural leader out there on the field.
“It’s only two games into the second year and there are those who believe in sophomores, I don’t see it. I just see a continuation of all those skills and a conviction in how he plays. There’s competitiveness there. There’s competitiveness. ability to read defenses that you never quite know, will translate to the next level.
“He checked every box of what you look for in a franchise quarterback. And if you’re a fan of the Houston Texans, you might be in for a decade of playoff football with this guy under center.”
Stroud and the Texans face their biggest test of the season in the surprising Vikings. Below is a preview of this matchup, along with some Eagle input for Sunday’s showdown on CBS and Paramount+.
Everyone NFL odds is via SportsLine Consensus.
How to look
Date: Sunday, September 22 | Time: 1 pm ET
Location: US Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
Television: CBS | Stream: Most important+ (click here)
Probability: Vikings +2, O/U 46
The Vikings pass by in a hurry
Minnesota has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL through two weeks, showing marked improvement under Brian Flores in Year 2 as the team’s defensive coordinator. The Vikings have a 33.3% completion rate on dropbacks this season, yet are first in the NFL in sacks (11), quarterback hits (19), and pressures (36). Last season, Minnesota had a 50.7% completion rate on dropbacks.
How are the Vikings more productive despite less blitzing?
“Right now it’s been a really good mix with the additions of Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard and maybe a little more confidence on the back end,” Eagle said of the Vikings’ pass rush. “And the fact that Stephon Gilmore is a savvy veteran. When you have experience there that you can believe in, it can affect the way you call a game.
“It’s also, for me, a really good marriage of defensive philosophy and personnel. Flores is very aggressive and he’s shown that time and time again. But you just can’t play the hits all the time. You’ve got to keep fighting back. Offense is a little off-balance by mixing some other material, I think coach Flores is probably at a stage of his career where he feels more confident and determining a new look is not the worst option at this stage.
Van Ginkel has two sacks and an interception return for a touchdown this season while Patrick Jones II has four sacks. The Vikings have a pressure percentage of 38.7% and a sack percentage of 12.4%.
The Vikings took a chance on Darnold by giving him $10 million to be their starting quarterback — and a replacement for first-round rookie JJ McCarthy. When McCarthy was lost for the season in August, the team officially became Darnold’s.
Darnold repaid the Vikings for their faith in him, completing 72.0% of his passes for 476 yards with four touchdowns to two interceptions with a career-high 111.7 passer rating.
“I think faith is one of those fleeting themes in the NFL,” Eagle said. “Anyone who gets to this level is capable and they’ve proven it. But often it is based on who is around you, who is calling the shots, and where you are and what stage of your career. For quarterbacks we tend to jump to conclusions very early and then based on now having more data we can look back and see more clearly that maybe Sam Darnold wasn’t put in the best position to have a successful start to his career.
“The fact that it wasn’t a stable environment with the Jets and Darnold certainly did everything in his power to make it work. It just didn’t. So what ends up happening in this league, you have a couple of different paths you can take and Sam had to go the backup route — and be a little humiliated. And now that you’ve seen him perform at the level he’s performing, you start to wonder if he was the one to blame in New York?”
Darnold is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt this season (6.7 in his previous six seasons combined) and his 72.0% percentage this season shatters his career high of 61.9% (2019). The Vikings are getting great value from Darnold in his comeback season.
Prediction
The Vikings defense will bring a challenge to the Texas offensive line, which is 23rd in the NFL in sack percentage (9.3%) but 11th in pressure percentage allowed (31.2%). Stroud will have to test a secondary that has only allowed a passer rating of 70.7 to opposing quarterbacks (sixth in the NFL).
Darnold will have a challenge against the Texans pass defense, which has allowed a passer rating of 68.0 to opposing quarterbacks (fifth in NFL). The Texans also have a sack rate of 13.8% (second in NFL), with the addition of former Vikings star Danielle Hunter to the pass rush.
“I think it’s going to be respect, positivity,” Eage said on Hunter’s return. “I think everybody recognizes that this is a business and these players do need to maximize what they can get when they can get it. If the Vikings were willing to spend the money that the Texans did, then he would stay in Minnesota. It’s that simple.
“He was a great Viking. Third all-time in sacks in franchise history. He was a very popular player during his days in the Twin Cities. I don’t think there will be any bad blood between the fans and Hunter. If anything, quite the opposite.”
The Texans are battle tested and the Vikings get there. If Minnesota wins this one, the Vikings have to be considered among the best in the NFC. The Texans will be tough to take down.
Projected score: Texans 24-21
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