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Let’s talk about Matt Chapman’s new contract with the Giants! Plus: Ken on the reunion of old Rangers friends, a look at the impact of second-half records on contenders’ World Series chances, and our Baseball Card of the Week. i am Levi Weaverhere with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!
Numbers Game: Analyzing Matt Chapman’s contract
The news broke late Wednesday night (or early Thursday morning, depending on your time zone) that Matt Chapman will not be hitting the free agent market this winter, instead signing a six-year, $151 million extension with the Giants.
It’s interesting for several reasons (many of which Grant Brisbee laid out here), but there are levels:
- First, Chapman was one of the “Boras Four” last winter (Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger were the other three). The quartet of star players took creative deals late in the free agency process when their market hasn’t quite developed as many of us expected. The thinking was that anyone could opt-out and hit the market again this winter if they wanted to.
- Chapman — who began his career with five seasons in Oakland — decided he liked where he was, and now he (and manager Bob Melvin) will continue over his original team in the Bay Area. It was like Andrew Baggarly points out, probably the deal the Giants should have offered him last off season
- It also foreshadows the possibility of another “we tried” moment in San Francisco, as we’ve seen with Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper and Shohei Ohtani in recent years. There is no better way to sign a free agent than to prevent one from hitting free agency in the first place.
It will be interesting to see how Chapman’s contract contrasts with those of Snell, Montgomery and Bellinger this winter. Montgomery (who is no longer with Boras) seems unlikely to take his leave, given his rough 2024 season, but will the other two get their big salaries?
This move will also make Alex Bregman’s looming free agency much more interesting, as teams won’t have Chapman as a backup option at third base. Bregman is also a client of Boras. As Ken claims, this could be the start of the “Boras Revenge Tour”.
Ken’s notebook: Cobb enjoying time with Rangers
From my story today on Cleveland’s veteran pitching additions Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd:
In a way, the trade of Cobb to the Rangers brought his career full circle. After the Rays, then known as the Devil Wheels, selected him in the fourth round of the 2006 draft, his catchers in his first two seasons of pro ball included Craig Albernaz and Stephen Vogt, the current bench coach and manager of the guards, respectively.
Vogt, the Devil Rays’ 12th-round pick in 2007, said Cobb was the first teammate he met at extended spring training in St. Louis. The two soon had to leave for Hudson Valley, a short-season team in the old New York-Penn League. Cobb, then 19, three years younger than Vogt, introduced himself on the phone, standing in the hallway of the team hotel. They were teammates not only that season, but also at Triple A in 2011 and with the Rays in ’12.
“It was really surreal to have him on our team and to work with him again,” Vogt said.
Cobb, for his part, is tickled that his old teammate now has “the keys to an organization,” and that he, Vogt, and Albernaz sometimes find themselves “sitting in a room together just kind of laughing about if they knew what stupid things we’ve done. in the small leagues.”
All these years later, Vogt views both Cobb, 36, and Boyd, 33, as near-ideal additions, bringing a veteran presence and combining with the Rangers’ highly regarded pitching instructors — pitching coach Carl Willis, assistant pitching coach Joe Torres and bullpen coach Brad. Goldberg – helping the younger beginners understand their own strengths.
A veteran presence, however, is most significant, perhaps only significant, when the veteran is performing well. Cobb’s ERA in his three starts with Cleveland is 2.76. In his last outing in particular, he felt things start to click. He could see it in the pirates’ reactions to the way his things moved.
His goal is to be in mid-season form by October.
“Think about 10 years of not winning. It wears on you,” Cobb said. “Other places I’ve been, August and September were like, when are we going to lose enough games against where the organization is giving up? It’s a toxic mindset to have.
“I went to San Francisco after they won 107 games (in 2021). With an expanded postseason, (you think) there’s no way you’re not going to get back to the postseason. And then it just didn’t happen for two years.
“This was such an amazing opportunity. I’m so grateful to the organization and to Vogter and Alby because I know they had a big hand in getting me.
“It changed my career, for sure.”
Research: Do strong endings matter?
Jayson Stark asks an interesting question today: Make two-and-a-half records really matter when it comes to a team’s chances of winning the World Series?
Turns out, yes, they really do. As Jayson points out, only one team – the 2006 Cardinals, who went 35-39 down the stretch – has won the World Series after posting a losing record in the second half. (and they did it against the Tigers, who went 36-38 in the second half that year).
The only other team even to do it to the World Series after playing sub-.500 ball after the All-Star Game? The 2023 Diamondbacks, who fell to the Rangers in five games in last year’s Fall Classic.
That’s not great news for some competing teams. The Twins and Rangers are under .500 since the Midsummer Classic, while the Phillies are at exactly .500 (22-22) and three others (Orioles, Yankees, Braves) are either one or two games over .500 during that stretch.
It bodes well for the other seven teams currently in final position, on the other hand. Their records range from 30-13 (Padres) to 24-20 (Royals).
Jayson also dives into what’s going on with the Rangers and Phillies, who both had the best records in their respective leagues not long ago.
Baseball Card of the Week: 1987 Topps Pete Rose
An artifact of a simpler time, to be sure. I chose this card this week because I just finished watching the HBO docuseries “Charlie Hustle”. It’s extremely well done, and I highly recommend it, especially if you’re not old enough to remember the Pete Rose saga as it unfolded in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
I thought JJ Abrams and crew did a great job of laying out the facts without an obvious spin, allowing the viewers to make up their own minds about Rose’s legacy. It’s complicated, sure.
It also features my favorite Reds beat writer, which is a fun little bonus.
Handshakes and High Fives
Chad Jennings and Stephen Nesbitt set out to find one league-leading statistic for each MLB team (and one league-worst). Some were obvious, but many… weren’t.
Mike Baumann of the *double notes* ah yes, the Marlins tied an MLB record this year: He played for five different teams since late March. Tyler Kepner traces Baumann’s journey in his “Sliders” column.
Face it: The Brewers might be the funnest story in baseball this year. Cody Stavenhagen tells us about their philosophy, and how they embrace the underdog role.
After retiring earlier this year, Yankees broadcaster John Sterling accepted an offer to return to the booth for this year’s postseason. It is a limited time return.
Big day for the Tigers. Not only did Parker Meadows hit a last-strike grand slam to beat the Padres 4-3 last night, but Detroit is coming up short. two prospects on Jim Bowden’s latest top 50 list. Also: Stavenhagen explains Tarik Skubal’s remarkable season in 10 stats.
Center field in the NL Central could be a fun matchup for years to come, with Pete Crow-Armstrong in Chicago and Victor Scott II in St. Louis both poised to be mainstays.
Michael Salfino asks: Is Willie Mays underrated in the baseball card industry?
Remember earlier this year when we checked Mookie Betts and Steven Kwan’s strikeout streak? Time to fire up the counter again: Luis Arraez of the Padres is now at 101. His last strikeout was on August 10th. It is the longest streak since Jeff Keppinger in 2010 (107).
TO wild card: In addition to the Tigers’ win (they are five games back), the Twins beat the Rays 4-3 to take a half-game lead over Kansas City for the second wild-card position.
NL wild card: The Braves lost, falling into a tie for the third and final wild card position with the Mets, who had the night off. Meanwhile, Will Sammon says Mets manager Carlos Mendoza doesn’t seem like a first-year skipper.
Most clicked on in yesterday’s newsletter: Chris Kirschner’s dispatch on the Yankees’ closer situation, including who could take over for Clay Holmes.
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(Top photo: Robert Edwards / USA Today)
