There’s the eye test, and there’s the numbers, and in between, there’s a lot of argument.
It’s a common story, in the NBA and elsewhere: A player looks like a bona fide star, and may even produce admirably in certain statistical categories, but lagging performance in other, more holistic and perhaps fine-tuned metrics leaves the question open. of just how much that player “contributes to” or “drives” winning. (“If he’s a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit well?“)
That, to some extent, was the rap about Paolo Banchero through two professional seasons that traced a very familiar path on the star map. No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA draft. Instant-offense 20-point scorer and no-doubt Rookie of the Year pick. Across-the-board offensive ascents in his sophomore season, resulting in an All-Star nod and his first playoff appearance, moving the Orlando Magic back to the postseason after a three-year drought.
But as impressive as the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Duke product’s raw production was, his means to get there — mid-range and 3-point jumpers account for over 60% of his field goal attemptsdespite him doing less than 40% of them — earned Banchero the most divisive labels among players vying for modern stardom: inefficient.
The Magic finished bottom-10 in points gained by possession in Banchero’s first two seasons despite his bucket-getting, and actually won more effectively with him off the floor last season Among 65 qualifying players to use at least 25% of their teams offensive possessions over the past two seasons, Banchero has been tied for 62nd in effective field goal percentage, which accounts for 3-pointers worth more than 2-pointers. (Right next to him? Russell Westbrook.) That goes a long way to explaining why so many advanced metrics — estimated plus-minus, LEBRON, DARK, value over replacement player, earn shares every 48 minutesyou name it – pegged Paolo more as “good enough” than “main operator”, despite box-score stat lines that put him on par with the likes of young Michael, LeBron and Luka.
Sometimes, however, the gap between the eye test and the numbers disappears, and when they start saying the same thing, there is no room for argument or misinterpretation; what remains is the truth, or something like it. And holy hell, was Paolo Banchero once the truth on Monday night:
Banchero bulldozed the Pacers with skill and precision, scoring a career-high 50 points — the first 50-ball game of this still tiny 2024-25 NBA season — on 16-for-26 shooting to lead Orlando to a 119-115 victory. He also contributed to scoring elsewhere, pulling down a game-high 13 rebounds and dishing out nine assists in 40 minutes en route to multiple entries in the history books.
With his 37-point blitz through two quarters, Banchero became just the third player in the last 27 years to put up 35 points, five rebounds and five assists in a halfand tied Tracy McGrady for the highest-scoring half in Magic history, according to Justin Kubatko at Statutes. When he finished, Banchero became just the fourth Magic player ever to score 50, and only the fourth player ever to go for 50 and 10 before turning 22.
Even applying the stat buff that Plays Against the Pacers’ Defense, Banchero’s performance was impressive. It’s not just that he scored 19 points on nine shots in the first quarteradded 18 more on eight attempts in the secondand rebounded from a slow third with nine more on just three shots in the narrative fourth. It was, if you’ll pardon some repetition, his means of achieving it.
As Banchero Juggernauted through Pascal Siakam, Obi Toppin, Isaiah Jackson, Aaron Nesmith, Ben Sheppard and whoever else Rick Carlisle could think of sending after him, those sledgehammer shoulders going through all resistance without losing any momentum, always steaming forward. How he played off the drive with the pull, eating up the space that the summary and results afforded him by locking into a shooting pace.
How he used the extra help Indiana sent, insufficiently and unsuccessfullymaking the easy pass to deliver nine assists, with seven producing 3-pointers, layups or dunks. How confidently he exercised control over the proceedings, drawing 13 malicious (his final tally would be even more striking if not for seven missed free throws), creating a whopping 81 points and driving to demand the attention that created the dead shot …
… to seal another win for a Magic team that, as my colleague Morten Stig Jensen noted on Monday, opened the season brandishing an improved offense to go along with it. the second-ranked defense last season.
Through four games, Orlando sits fourth in the NBA in points won by possession out of garbage time, according to Cleaning the Glass. That’s a huge improvement over last season, one fueled in part by changing much of his shot attempts. away from the mid range … a change that, not by chance, was reflected in the fired a choice of its All-Star in the early going.
The more the Magic shoot from long range, the more space it should open up on the interior for what was already one of the league’s most paint-striking teams. In a related story, Banchero takes a career-high share of his shots at the rimand pulling shooting drops on more than a quarter of his shot attempts. The more he attacks the basket and the more help he draws, the more kick feeds it opens up for Orlando’s shooters – and although we probably can’t wait for Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, Gary Harris and Mo Wagner. everyone continue to shoot better than 40% from 3-point range, some an increase in Orlando’s overall shooting accuracy should help turn a bottom-10 offense into, at least, an average one, led by a Blake Griffin-sized freight train that can give it to you the way you want it.
“I think people are still learning about him, which is impressive to me,” Magic teammate Cole Anthony told reporters. earlier this year. “… He will be a household name.”
Hanging half a hundred and one times doesn’t guarantee that. (Exclaims Malachi Flynn, Saddiq Bey, Terrence Ross and Corey Brewer, among others.) But if the Magic can mate this offensive improvement with that elite defense, they have a recipe that could go beyond just making the playoffs to making some real noise once they arrive. The dudes who lead teams like this end up brighter, replacing old eye-test-versus-the-numbers arguments with a newfound consensus that a new superstar is being born.
