In the second of two Week 4 “Monday Night Football” games, the Detroit Lions play host to the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle is one of the surprising undefeated teams in the league, and will reside in first place in the NFC West no matter the outcome on Monday night. Detroit is 2-1 after playing three straight one-score games, and still can’t seem to hit their stride.
This confrontation features two of the NFLs youngest and most interesting head coaches in Dan Campbell and Mike Macdonald, each of whom appear at the forefront of the analytical and aggressive waves in the league. They are a fascinating contrast in leadership style and personality, however, and the way the teams execute on the field is also different.
Will the Seahawks continue their surprising start, or will the Lions grab a win at home? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the match, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to look
Date: Monday September 30 | Time: 8:15 pm ET
Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
Channel: ABC/ESPN+ | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Probability: Lions -3.5; O/U 46.5 (through SportsLine deal odds)
When the Seahawks have the ball
The important thing to watch out for here is whether the Seahawks can keep Geno Smith adequately protected — and specifically, whether they can keep Aidan Hutchinson away from him. Despite having played one less game than almost everyone in the NFL, Hutchinson leads the league with 25 pressures and 6.5 sacks. His 24.3% pressure rate, per Tru Media, is also the highest in the NFL.
Unlike in previous seasons, Hutchinson split his time relatively equally rushing from the left and right sides of the defensive line; but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him primarily come from left here so he can rush Seahawks right tackle Stone Forsythe, who has already allowed 8 pressures on 104 pass-blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus.
Seattle’s more modernized offense under new coordinator Ryan Grubb has a significantly higher dose of 11 personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 wide receivers) than in years past, which helps get all of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith -Njigba. on the field together. The Seahawks ranks sixth in the league in 11 personnel usage (76.3%); under former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, they ranked 21st (59.9%) from 2021 through 2023.
When Smith looks down, he’ll see Metcalf and Lockett covered primarily by Carlton Davis, with JSN working against Amik Robertson and/or Brian Branch in the slot. Despite his poor touchdown totals, Smith breezed through the first three games of the season, completing nearly 75% of his passes at an average of 7.6 yards per attempt. If he can stay upright long enough to find his men downfield, he’ll pepper them with pinpoint accurate throws.
Seattle could benefit from getting Kenneth Walker III back for this game, and maybe create more splash plays with the run. Zach Charbonnet has filled in adequately in Walker’s absence with an oblique injury, but he’s also averaging just 3.5 yards per carry on the season and has a long run of just 13 yards. Walker is a big-play threat, despite his inconsistency on a lower base in terms of hit rate.
Meanwhile, it’s important for Detroit’s defense to maintain its early season success. Last year, the Lions looked like a much-improved unit on this side of the ball early, only to fall apart during the second half of the year. That came back to bite them allowing the 49ers to stage a second-half comeback in the NFC title game. Adding pieces to the secondary (Davis, Arnold, Ennis Rakestraw) will presumably take this group to the next level this season.
When the Lions have the ball
Detroit’s offense has been surprisingly muted so far this season, but really only in the scoring department. The Lions are fourth in the NFL in total yards and second in first downs, but they are only 16th in points. That’s due to their paltry 38.5% red-zone touchdown rate, which ranks 29th in the league. They scored a touchdown on 64.1% of red-zone trips last season, the third-best mark in the NFL.
It’s surprising they haven’t had more red-zone success, though, considering how well David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have run the ball behind the NFL’s premier offensive line.
Montgomery is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has an obscene 62.7% rushing success rate, while Gibbs is at 5.2 yards a pop with a 57.5% success rate. They combine for 146 yards per game on the ground, which is more than all but six total teams. Seattle’s defense has been around league average against the run this year, allowing 4.4 yards per carry (16th), and averaging 1.53 yards before contact (18th) and 2.89 yards after contact (15th). The Lions will be without star center Frank Ragnow in this game, however, and could shuffle the offensive line a bit, perhaps with Graham Glasgow switching to center. It will be interesting how that affects their ability to run it down teams’ throats.
We all know the Detroit run game fuels the play-action passing attack, and Jared Goff is 23 of 32 for 309 yards after running a play fake this year. He is tied for seventh in the NFL in EPA per dropback on those throws despite having yet to throw a touchdown, according to Tru Media. He could see some tough matchups down the field in this game, however, with Devon Witherspoon likely seeing the primary coverage responsibilities against Amon-Ra St. Brown and sometimes Sam LaPorta (who is beaten coming off a sprained ankle). Jameson Williams will see a lot of Tariq Woolen and Tre Brown, who are marginally easier to beat through the air.
However, keeping pressure off Goff’s face is paramount. We’ve seen throughout his career that when he’s well protected, Goff can let it rip with the best of them; but when he sees defenders in front of him — and especially right in his lap in the middle of the pocket — he can struggle. Seattle leads the NFL with a 44.2% pressure rate this season (thanks, Mike McDonald!) despite not really employing a star pass rusher, and if the Seahawks can muddy Goff’s pocket, that can make things difficult for Goff.
Prediction: Lions 24, Seahawks 20
Detroit gets the advantage of playing at home here, and the offensive numbers below for the Lions paint a picture of a more successful unit than the one we’ve seen so far. If they are able to keep pressure off Goff’s face, they should be able to move the ball even against a surprisingly effective Seahawks defense. This one should be close, but we’ll roll with the home team to come away with a win.
Josh Nagel, who is on a 25-11 ATS roll in Seahawks games, has released his best bets for the “Monday Night Football” game between the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions. We can tell you that he leans Super on the point total. find out who he’s backing against the spread right here.
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