No NFL team had a more dramatic turnaround in recent seasons than the Detroit Lions, who open the 2024 season Sunday night against the Los Angeles Rams. After years in the wilderness, three-plus decades without a championship win, 11 head coaches and countless quarterbacks, the Lions last season went 12-5, won the NFC North and made it all the way to the conference championship game before bowing out. the San Francisco 49ers.
In large part, Detroit’s rapid ascent has been on the strength of Dan Campbell’s combination of personality and coaching prowess, and a well-built, ruthlessly efficient offense. Detroit last season finished third in the NFL in yards and fifth in points, fourth in both yards per game and points per drive, and fifth in TruMedia’s expected points added (EPA) per game.
The defense, however, lagged a bit. While the offense has moved up the ranks over the last several years, the same improvement has yet to appear on the opposite side of the ball. At least, not nearly to the same extent.
| Yards | 22 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 32 | 19 |
| Points | 25 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 28 | 23 |
| Yds/Play | 20 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 32 | 27 |
| Pts/Driving | 22 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 31 | 26 |
| EPA/Game | 22 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 31 | 24 |
During the early part of last season, it looked like maybe the Lions were on to something.
Through Week 8 through, Detroit’s opponents averaged the seventh-fewest yards per game and 12th-fewest points per game, and the Lions were tied for ninth in the NFL in EPA/defense game. They had the NFLs third best defense on third downs, allowing just a 32.6% conversion rate. They forced negative plays (those that gained zero yards or lost yards) at the seventh-highest rate in the league. They received pressure against opposing quarterbacks on 41.6% of dropbacks, fourth most often in the NFL. They held opponents to a strikeout rate of just 3%, the best mark in the league.
And then the bottom fell out from under them. From Week 9 on, Detroit ranked 27th in yards per game and 28th in points per game. The Lions were 28th in EPA/playoff defense. Opponents converted 40.7% of third downs, the seventh-highest mark in the league. They gained zero or negative yards at a league-average rate, but created an explosive gain on 8.2% of snaps — the highest rate in the NFL. Detroit still generated pressure at a high rate (third in the league) but only converted it into sacks 6.1% of the time — a rate that ranked 25th in the NFL. And the Lions fell back to a league-average blast-run rate allowed (7.6%).
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has become one of the most decorated assistant coaches in the league for his work with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the rest of Detroit’s offense. Defensive coordinator and longtime NFL cornerback Aaron Glenn clearly hopes to deploy the Detroit defense in his image just as Johnson did with the offense.
Glenn has made no secret of the fact that he wants to be aggressive defensively, getting after quarterbacks with heavy pressure and creative flashes while his defensive backs pressure and block opposing receivers and play sticky coverage. But the Lions, for the most part, simply didn’t have the personnel to execute that strategy.
After again investing significant resources in the defense, the hope is that the Lions can return to the kind of results they had in the early part of last year. Free agent signings DJ Reader and Marcus Davenport should help solidify the defensive line along with Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill. Trade acquisition Carlton Davis and draft picks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. should provide badly needed fort in the secondary. Players like Hutchinson, linebacker Jack Campbell, versatile defensive back Brian Branch and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu should take steps forward. If all of those factors can gel into more consistency and defense than can stay in the top half of the league or even sneak into the top 10 overall, it will make the Lions more than just an NFC contender, but maybe something more like the favorite.
There are, of course, still question marks and potential holes in this plan. Reader is now on the wrong side of 30 and has had trouble staying healthy. Davenport was always more of a theoretical high-level pass rusher than an actual one, and he also had injury problems. Arnold and Rakestraw are high-end prospects; but they are still rookies, and rookies are usually bad — even if they eventually become good. Campbell and Branch had strong rookie years, but improvement isn’t always linear. There’s still a lack of high-end edge talent beyond Hutchinson, and the Lions are still piling things up a bit inside and even at linebacker.
The floor is higher for this year’s unit. The top should be too. But whether they can realize that upside remains to be seen.
