Picking the right players and knowing who to fade are critical factors in building a competitive fantasy basketball team. We covered the guards and forwards facing competition or injuries; today, we close out our positional look by ruling out three centers to avoid in fantasy basketball drafts.
Brook Lopez – C, Milwaukee Bucks
Lopez, 36, is winning the race against Father Time, missing just seven games over the past two seasons while averaging 30 minutes a night. Mr. Splash Mountain remains a reliable source of 3s and blocks, but outside of those areas, Lopez doesn’t offer fantasy managers much in the way of category or point connections. He is entering his 17th NBA season and while his job security is solid, he is showing signs of decline.
Last season marked the third consecutive campaign in which his usage rate dropped. He finished the 23–24 season with a 15.9 usage rate – 39th percentile in the league. His shot volume is trending down, but his shot selection is also moving further from the basketnegatively affecting his efficiency. Per Cleaning the Glass, Lopez is 16th percentile in offensive rebounding and ninth in defensive rebounding. He’s 7 feet tall, grabbing five rebounds a night, yeah.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s still an elite shot blocker, but his lack of mobility is a weakness that opponents will exploit ad nauseam. The demand of an 82-game schedule is sure to get to him. Even if he comes out hot like last season, expect him to hit a wall around February/March where his scoring stat production has suffered outside of his shot blocking.
[Fantasy Hoops Draft Kit: One-stop shop for rankings, strategy and more]
Lopez’s blocks increase his value more than most, so he finished 46th in 9-cat leagues last season. Although, if he doesn’t get more than two hits per game, he won’t come close to his seventh-round ADP. Instead, focus on targeting the big men who offer more production in different areas, such as Jusuf Nurkić, Mark Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein – all players drafted after Lopez. And if it’s blocks you’re looking for, take Walker Kessler or Zach Edey, who go after pick 100 in Yahoo leagues.
Clint Capela – C, Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks have been shopping Capela for years, yet he still holds the title of one of the most underrated bigs in fantasy basketball. However, I’m not convinced it will last, as the Hawks gave 23-year-old Onyeka Okongwu a four-year, $62 million deal over the 30-year-old Capela, who is in the final year of his contract.
It is concerning that Capela played in just 25 minutes per game last season, his lowest mark since the 2016-2017 campaign and the sixth consecutive year his minutes have decreased from the previous season.
Can you guess whose minutes have been trending over the past four seasons? None other than his second-in-command, Okongwu.
Another red flag for Capela is his loss of scoring efficiency near the rim. A career 62% shooter from the field, Capela shot 57% from the field last year, his lowest since his rookie season. In a league where versatility is important, Capela’s inability to shoot beyond 10 feet limits the offense, especially when Okongwu can stretch the floor and is a competent free throw shooter.
I’m not saying Capela will leave because his size is important in the interior as a rim protector and rebounder. However, Okongwu will be the one you want to list long term. Capela’s ADP at 86 is overstated, and I’d much rather pick Okongwu, who goes 30 spots after Capela.
Mitchell Robinson – C, New York Knicks
Fading MRob is less about the Karl-Anthony Towns trade and more about his inability to stay healthy. It’s hard to believe he’s still only 25 years old, but the Knicks center is without a clear timetable for his return after suffering a setback following surgery on his left ankle in the offseason.
Last season, Robinson was on pace for an All-Defensive team bid as the anchor of Tom Thibodeau’s aggressive defense. He averaged nearly nine rebounds with more than a block and a steal per game through December. Then he got injured and didn’t return until late March. While getting some reps before the playoffs was beneficial, he succumbed to another ankle injury in the second round that forced him to miss the remainder of the postseason. It was one bad blow after another.
Fantasy managers probably still remember that Robinson finished 53rd in per-game value a few years ago and was a top-80 player in all but two seasons. His rebounding, FG% and shares made him a useful big man in fantasy, but he only managed to play more than 60 games three times in six seasons. While there is no firm return date for his latest ankle injury, the target is said to be December or January – meaning he will miss at least the first two months of the season.
It’s not a good start to the season and while his 11th-round ADP is modest, I’m surprised he was drafted in 95% of leagues. The Knicks’ frontcourt depth is pretty weak behind Towns and there are already reports that the Knicks will be cautious with Robinson, so who knows when he’ll be back to play. I’d totally pass on him instead of absorbing an IR point that you might need later.
