Preparation is key to success in fantasy basketball. I gathered industry experts for a 12-team, head-to-head nine-category mock draft to get a peak at current trends, player values and the nuances of drafting across key statistical categories. Let’s dive in and a special thanks to everyone who participated.
The results of the mock draft can be found here.
The Fantastic Four and everyone else
The top four picks in division league drafts have been consistent throughout the offseason. That was no different here, as Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokić were the top two options, followed by Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The draft gets really interesting once those in the consensus top four are gone. It’s all a matter of preference and risk appetite. On a per-game basis, Joel Embiid is one of the three guys, but knowing that his name is synonymous with missing games, I understand the slide to eighth.
Call of the guard(s)
The back end of the first round started a marked trend where guards were flying off the board. 67% of the picks in the second round were point guards – meaning that the players who generally carry high usage rates and cross-category production in points, assists, 3s, free throw percentage and steals are fairly concentrated in the early rounds. Of course, you can punt assists, but I don’t recommend it; pick a high level guard by Round 4 because the drop is real.
Back to the big men for a minute, after Embiid was drafted eighth overall, only four players (Chet Holmgren, Domantas Sabonis, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Karl-Anthony Towns) with center eligibility were selected out of picks nine through 36. Sabonis. passing ability can’t be understated, so dropping to 2.10 was a major steal from this draft, considering he’s a threat to lead the league in double-doubles.
Large tree(s) fall hard
Rounds 4 and 5 were big man-centric, with 14 of the 24 picks across those two rounds being players with PF or C eligibility. A common draft strategy is to grab the guards early and save the middle rounds to ensure rebounding, blocks and FG%. That was done here.
Seeing Immanuel Quickley go in the fourth round hurt my soul because he’s gone at least a round later in most drafts I’ve been a part of —no more discounts, y’all. Similarly, as an Isaiah Hartenstein truer, seeing him go in the fifth round was a considerable jump from his ADP, which currently sits at 82.1 over the past seven days in Yahoo Fantasy drafts.
Get your kids + mispriced vets
When we got to the midpoint of the draft in Round 6, you started to see a mix of fantasy managers getting their guys and value going down. Cam Thomas, Alex Caruso and Chris Paul went higher than projected in the sixth and seventh rounds, respectively. On the other hand, Julius Randle, D’Angelo Russell and Josh Giddey look like value picks relative to where I project them to finish this season.
If you throw in rebounds and blocks, Round 9 is the cutoff point to pick a decent big man. Jonas Valančiūnas, Jusuf Nurkić, Clint Capela, and Ivica Zubac all left the board before Round 10.
Late-round explosions
Quite a few of my breakouts straddle this territory – Jonathan Kuminga, Onyeka Okongwu and Amen Thompson. Underrated picks past Round 10 were Collin Sexton, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Dyson Daniels and Keyonte George. There is also considerable veteran depth in the later rounds, such as Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Norman Powell – all guys who will be impact players for their respective squads this season.
Final thoughts
All in all, it was a fun sketch. Like the guy who left unsatisfied with his squad after drafting the 12th spot, should you try to stick to your plan or pivot if necessary? Running high-help guards and waiting to knock on big men in the early-to-mid rounds will vary each draft, so be nimble and ready to adapt if you’re striving for balance or maybe hitting depending on how the draft falls. to you
