Jon Greenberg is a columnist in Chicago and Zac Jackson is the Cleveland Browns beat writer but they spend too much time thinking about UMass and Kent State.
GREENBERG (3-2 last week, 9-6 overall): There are guys who go to Las Vegas to golf, gamble a little and go to fancy dinners, guys who go there to see the fights, guys who love to hit the clubs and, uh, the clubs If you want to know what trip in Vegas I just got back from, I was the last one at the sports book Saturday when I got there at 9:30 am, I was also the first one to leave (not counting the guy who wandered in) . away for an hour to play blackjack) around 8 p.m
I felt like I was playing in the Backyard Brawl when I walked out those doors. I think we set a Cosmopolitan sportsbook record for the number of Old Fashioneds, White Russians and Tom Collins ordered.
It was a good day for me, gambling-wise, but you know the truth: You regret the bets you didn’t make, not the ones you lost. And this is where I say I didn’t bet the Alabama game I hyped last week and told everyone else to bet. (I hope you were listening.) I was going to bet it live, but I didn’t like the live line and let it go. It ruined my day, even more than actually putting real money on the UMass bet you offered last week. (I’m also betting Colorado State to win!)
They even put that game on sportsbook TV for some reason. Everyone got a laugh out of it, and you.
I did win with Pitt over WVU and my biggest W from Saturday wasn’t mentioned here last week: Indiana -3.5 over UCLA. Kurtis Rourke is now a hero in two big college towns.
how was your weekend
JACKSON (2-3, 5-7): I went 2-1 in NFL picks. I was swept, again, on university choices. I spent a lot of time standing in the security line at the Jacksonville Airport, thinking about my sins, my misses, and my obviously flawed process. Back then, there wasn’t even a Chick-Fil-A on the other side.
Anyway, we push on. You have to find the silver linings in this stupid game, and one is that at least I didn’t have the Philadelphia Eagles. Another is that a big part of my college selection strategy as we get more data points is that while people talk and overanalyze the big games, a good way to find winners is to diagnose the worst teams. Given my choices so far, I’m all over that list.
All in all, 5-7 isn’t terrible. I should have had Tennessee -49 against Kent State, obviously, because I wasn’t at all surprised that Tennessee led that game 65-0 at halftime.
I’m going to Vegas next week. Should I tell people I know you?
GREENBERG: I don’t think this will help you much, but if you find the sweatshirt I left in a cab at 4:30 am, I’d appreciate it. Also, if you want to watch games in a non-sportsbook environment, I recommend Beer Park at the Paris Casino. It feels like a slightly advanced sports book. Great atmosphere and it’s steps from the casino floor. (There is also a betting kiosk inside the bar.)
I have a large university sub to take: Marshall +40 at Ohio State. The Buckeyes nearly covered a 48.5 spread against Akron that I touted earlier in the season and then they beat Western Michigan by 56.
Marshall head coach Charles Huff made news by joking about a Biscuits NIL deal, but he doesn’t coach Akron. I bet the Thundering Herd, who are 2-0 against the spread so far, can keep the deficit under 40.
On the flip side, I’ll take it Penn State -48.5 over Kent State. I think the live line at one point last week was Tennessee -77, so in that sense, the Golden Flashes covered. It won’t get as ugly, but they will lose by 50 this week.
JACKSON: There’s a chance this Kent State team is generationally bad. You can add me to that Penn State -48.5 to choose I’d like to hold a meeting for all 13 of our readers at Dix Stadium in November before one of the weeknight games, but for my safety, I’d better start picking some winners.
Very few things on this earth treat a hangover like Tudor’s Biscuit World grease, so I appreciate Coach Huff. Speaking of hangovers, just six days after Washington State upset Washington in the Apple Cup, I catch the Cougars’ Friday night opponent, San Jose State +14 and now it’s down to +12.5.
I want too USC -6. Michigan has the uniforms and some of the best players in the country, but this Michigan team is a shell of what it used to be. I still can’t call the Trojans legit, but you can be semi-legit and beat this Michigan team by a touchdown or more.
GREENBERG: Mark me for USC -6 too. They are better than UMass, right?
I was all set to take the Titans against the Packers and Malik Willis, but now Jordan Love is making noise about playing this week, even if his mobility will be limited, I’ll stay away from that game. It’s a good bet to live, though.
I can’t bet it but take the Bears +1 in Indianapolis. The offense is heroically bad, but I bet they actually run the ball this week and make life easy for Caleb Williams, who will actually throw a touchdown for the first time in the NFL.
I’ll also pick the Chargers over my Steelers, but Justin Herbert missed practice with an ankle injury on Wednesday. I also heard “Renegade” playing at Whole Foods that afternoon, so that’s a sign. If Herbert is gone, take the Steelers. If he plays and looks worried, take the Steelers. But it is not an official election.
Although I feel like there are some deposits this week, I’m second-guessing some of the numbers there. Let’s go with the Pirates -6.5 at home against the Denver Broncos. It’s a little too high, but I’m starting Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin in fantasy, so I think when they find that out, they’ll be inspired to score more points.
And now a moment of silence for our survivors choose last week. RIP.
JACKSON: A friend of mine ran a survivor group of 45 people from his employer and the neighborhood, and it ended in Week 2. Two weeks! This is a tough game.
Below 38.5 in Browns-Giants is a winner. I worry about defensive touchdowns but not much else. A good defense led by Jim Schwartz feasts on bad quarterbacks, and I see the Browns dominating here but mostly putting together long drives when they have the ball.
Under 35.5 in Chargers-Steelers is a winner. It flirts with terribly dangerous territory, I know, and only a few odd bounces can bring it down. But there’s a real chance, too, that this one stays under 17. Have you seen these teams play offense?
Monday night, I like Jacksonville +5.5 in Buffalo. The Jags have been terrible offensively, but their defense is legit. They head to Orchard Park as a desperate team that probably played well enough to win over the last 2 1/2 quarters last week, minus some confusing decisions. I won’t be surprised if they win here, but five seems like too many.
A extra-collegiate double choice: Duke -14.5 and Duke-Middle Tennessee State below 51.5. Duke is 121st in offensive success rate … and favored by 15. Manny Diaz can coach some defense, and Duke, at this early stage, is top 30 in defensive EPA against both the run and the pass. I just think it’s ugly and that Middle Tennessee can’t find the end zone more than once.
GREENBERG: Duke-Middle Tennessee ?state under? In this economy? This is why I subscribe The Athletics.
Jon Greenberg’s picks
Zac Jackson’s picks
(Miller Moss photo: Michael Owens/Getty Images)
