Picking the right players and knowing when to avoid the landmines are critical factors in building a competitive fantasy basketball team. Today’s column zeroes in on three players who might be appealing but have red flags attached to their draft. Whether it’s injury or competition-related, let’s break down the guards to avoid in fantasy basketball this season.
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Jamal Murray, PG/SG, Denver Nuggets
The Blue Arrow signed a profitable maximum extension to stay with the Nuggets this offseason, and while I’m not mad about it, he’s in the middle of the 2024 NBA Finals. Yes, Murray was dealing with late-season ankle and calf sprains, but neither the Nuggets nor Murray shed much light on their severity. Murray pushed on, and like many, I assumed he would be close to 100% by the time the Paris Olympics rolled around. Spoiler alert: he wasn’t. Murray didn’t look like himself, averaging just 6.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 3.8 dimes in 20.5 minutes per game.
Murray is one of the players I’m most interested in seeing during training camp because he looked cooked from the postseason to the Olympics. When healthy, he is one of the best complementary stars in the game. While we know his job is safe, injuries are a recurring theme with Murray and with a fifth-round ADP, I usually pass him up for Immanuel Quickley or Jalen Duren.
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Khris Middleton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks
Middleton has become one of the riskiest players in fantasy basketball. Over the past two seasons, he averaged just 15-5-4 in 25 minutes a night. It’s not a great look that he was unable to see the workload of a typical beginner. More concerning, Middleton has had surgeries on both ankles this offseason and has yet to be cleared for 5-on-5 activities. Training camp starts on Tuesday, and while he will participate, the Bucks will be cautious, bringing Middleton back slowly.
That news is far from ideal in fantasy basketball because, despite his ninth-round ADP, I won’t have the patience to wait for Middleton to return to a 30+ minute type of player. It seems more believable that he’s just that guy anymore, and it’s time to look elsewhere. He is the third option in Milwaukee anyway and much of his value is derived from his rebounds, assists and efficiency. But if his minutes stay in the mid-20s, it’s a tough sell for me.
CJ McCollum, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans
McCollum had an underrated fantasy basketball season last year, finishing 38th in nine-category leagues and 58th in point leagues. The problem isn’t the player – it’s the situation. The Pelicans’ decision to trade for Dejounte Murray was a bit of a head-scratcher. However, my immediate reaction was that the combination of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Murray would crowd out McCollum’s usage and opportunity. McCollum’s seventh-round ADP isn’t wrong; I just fail to see how he maintains 25% usage while sharing the ball with Murray, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson – all high-usage players.
I offered more A Good Word with Goodwill that coming off the bench would be in McCollum’s best interest. I’m sticking with that theory because, defensively, it’s the best option if the Pelicans want to win. However, I foresee a drop off in scoring with so much competition around him, and it will be the first time in 11 years that he doesn’t average 20 points per game. You don’t have to drop him, but I’d prefer other guard picks in the seventh round like Cam Thomas or D’Angelo Russell.
