Dunn spent two seasons at Virginia before the Suns drafted him this past summer. He only played 13.0 minutes per game off the bench as a freshman, but he became a starter during his collegiate season and played well enough to be drafted. Dunn was arguably the best defenseman in the draft, but his offensive limitations resulted in him falling to the Suns at pick 28.
He has started in five of his 11 appearances so far this season and is averaging 7.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.5 triples per game. The elite defensive numbers from college haven’t translated yet, but his improvement on the offensive end has been amazing.
Dunn was one of my favorite prospects in this draft class, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted that he would be hitting 3-pointers at this rate just 11 games into his career. To a lesser extent, this is the NBA’s version of Josh Allen’s development. Every fan will want to draft an elite defender who can’t shoot the ball because Dunn was able to make such a drastic jump right away. Don’t fall for it! This is an incredibly unique case. Not to say a player will never make a significant shooting jump from college to the pros, but Dunn made 12 threes in 65 games at Virginia. He has already hit 17 this season.
The early returns from this draft class weren’t great (which was expected), but there were plenty of flashes here and there. However, this development from Dunn is loud and in your face. The defensive numbers haven’t come out yet, but those will come later. The main question about Dunn entering the draft was whether or not the defensive contributions would be worth the offensive liability. Well, he already answered those questions early on.
Shooting/scoring
Dunn didn’t enter the league with a polished offensive game, so any production on that side of the ball is great to see at this point. He’s not a creative scorer, but on a team with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, it’s perfectly acceptable not to create your own offense. They have enough guys who can do that. 27 of Dunn’s 31 made shots this year have been assisted, and all 17 of his 3-pointers have also come off assists. Of the four unassisted shots, two were on fast breaks, and the other two were layups.
Lack of shot diversity is not a bad thing. There are many NBA players who have long careers holding onto their strengths, and it’s encouraging to see a rookie do that right away to try and help a contending team win games. Maybe he can eventually develop more on that end over the next few seasons, but our expectations shouldn’t be high. This guy will make his money on defense, but he can’t do that if his offense is holding him back.
During his sophomore season at Virginia, Dunn shot 20% on 3-pointers. In the NBA, he has made 37.8% of his threes so far. He is tied with Dalton Knecht for fourth among rookies with 1.5 threes made per game. The only rookies who average more are Kyshawn George, Jared McCain and Jaylen Wells, and among the top five, only McCain shoots a higher percentage. The other four names were considered to be some of the best shooting prospects entering the draft, so Dunn’s name being among those was scary to see.
Dunn has made 11 of his 13 shots in the restricted area (84.6%) so far this season. If he can simply continue to be a reliable floor spacer and finisher, he will continue to earn more minutes on a talented Suns team. He’s only played 17.8 minutes per game so far, but he’s played at least 20 minutes in three straight.
Game making
There’s not much to say here, so we’ll keep it short and sweet. Dunn has one game this season where he had more than one assist, and it was a game where he had two of them. Almost all of his assists came in the flow of the offense by swinging the ball or making the extra pass after someone else drives. The clip I attached is still in the flow of the offense, but it’s a flash of something that I think can help Dunn take his game to the next level. Dunn sees the open paint and slides to the basket with DeMar DeRozan up on the same level as him. That creates a numerical advantage, as it is now 2-on-1, with Josh Okogie making the decision to cut to the basket instead of sitting in the corner. Dunn sees him, pulls Keegan Murray up and then dumps it for a layup. There are a lot of players who don’t make these types of reads, and a player like Draymond Green has made a Hall of Fame career out of it. Not to say that Dunn can be THAT good or even has to be, but it’s encouraging to see him make this play.
This is definitely taking a magnifying glass to a specific play to try to give a glimmer of hope, so don’t take this because Dunn will average five assists per game one day. He’s averaging less than one per game so far, but this was just to highlight a nice play he made. We’ll see if Mike Budenholzer can keep putting him in these situations and see what he can do.
On-ball defense
Dunn’s defended field goal percentage (DFG%) sits at 40.9%, which is second among rookies who have defended at least 10 shots per game this season. Only Kyshawn George (40.3%) was better. Dunn has taken on some incredibly tough defensive assignments thus far and has more than held his own. Here are some stars he’s defended and how they’ve fired against him:
DeMar DeRozan: 6 points, 3-of-9 FGs
James Harden: 13 points, 4-of-13 FGs, 2 turnovers
LeBron James: 2 points, 0-of-4 FGs, 2 turnovers
Paul George: 3 points, 1-of-4 FGs, 1 turnover
Luka Doncic (17 points, 4-of-8 FGs) was the only star who had consistent success with Dunn as the primary defender, and that’s no reason to worry about the rookie. The Suns trust him to take on the toughest matchups when he’s on the floor, and he’s been effective so far. Early success like that should have fantasy managers confident he’ll be around for a long, long time.
Off-ball defense
The hype surrounding Dunn entering the draft was due to his elite defensive numbers. He averaged 1.3 steals and 2.2 blocks in 27.5 minutes per game during his sophomore year. It’s certainly a little disappointing that he wasn’t able to enjoy that same success early on, but the numbers are starting to show. Over his last three games, Dunn has two steals and four blocks in 24.3 minutes per game. Durant has been gone, but if Dunn continues to play well, he should have a consistent role off the bench when the team is healthy. Unfortunately, the minutes have been anything but consistent this season. If Budenholzer can get him 18-22 minutes per game when the rotation is at full strength, there should be plenty of time for him to put up the defensive numbers.
Dunn’s combination of incredible athleticism and elite defensive instincts have made him a dangerous defensive presence both on and off the ball at the collegiate and professional level. Trust the process here. The shares are coming.
situation
The Suns knew they needed to add talent around their three stars this summer after getting swept by Minnesota, but they probably didn’t expect such an elite defenseman to fall into their lap at the end of the first round. There isn’t a starting spot open for Dunn with the way the roster is currently constructed, but it might not be far off. Durant will be a free agent in 2026, and Beal will be one in 2027, assuming he picks up his $57 million game option after next season (spoiler alert, he will). The next two seasons are a great opportunity for Dunn to prove that he can contribute to victory at a high level. He can play the role of a part-time starter, which is usually one of their first options off the bench for the next couple of years. That should be a big enough role for Dunn to contribute in 9-cat leagues, but he’ll have a chance to truly become a fantasy star within two seasons. Situations in the NBA are always changing, but barring some drastic moves, Dunn should be a full-time starter and fantasy stud within two seasons.
General perspective
I was excited about Dunn before the draft, and I’m even more excited about him now. In 9-category dynasty leagues, Dunn has the makings of a future star. The shooting was much better than expected. The defensive numbers are coming. The game creation has potential. The turnovers are non-existent because he never has the ball in his hands for long. He plays like a perfect role player who can be much more than that in fantasy rings.
