One year after winning a national championship at Kansas, Braun was drafted in the first round by Denver and added another ring to his collection. He showed flashes in a small role as a rookie, and with Bruce Brown gone, he had some expectations to step up in year two. However, Braun’s minutes only jumped from 15.5 to 20.2, and his numbers weren’t much better.
This past summer, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope signed a deal to head east to Orlando, opening the door for a new starter at shooting guard. The Nuggets opted against bringing in a new face and made it a position battle between Braun and Julian Strawther, a second-year guard who can space the floor well. With KCP gone, would Mike Malone value shooting in the starting lineup or a guy who can do a little bit of everything else?
He went with Braun, and the early results showed it was the right choice. He is averaging career highs across the board with 16.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.7 threes in 35.3 minutes per game. The increase in volume did not negatively affect its effectiveness. Braun is shooting 55.2% from the floor, 81.1% from the free throw line and 50% on 3-pointers, all of which are career highs.
Denver is one game out of first place and has won five games in a row. Braun’s jump is a big reason why they are still among the elite teams in the league despite not making many improvements to their roster during the offseason. But how good is Braun, and how should dynasty managers rate him?
Let’s get one thing straight: Nikola Jokic deserves a lot of credit for Braun’s statistical jump. Jokic is obviously one of the best playmakers in the league, and Braun’s style of play is maximized by playing alongside him. They spend 34.4 minutes per game on the court together, which means Braun has played about nine minutes through 10 games with Jokic on the bench.
This is not to discredit Braun, as he is truly having an amazing season. The context is important for dynasty managers, because if he were to be traded tomorrow, his value would likely decrease. That won’t happen, but it changes how we should appreciate him as we look forward to the future. Of course, there is definitely a chance that this team will continue to choose continuity, and these two spend many years playing together. To a lesser extent, that’s like the Warriors maximizing the careers of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green by having them all on the same team. All of them are Hall of Famers, but Thompson or Green might not have had the same success if they weren’t maximized in Golden State.
Shooting/scoring
Playing next to Jokic makes life easier, and that showed in Braun’s numbers this season. His 2-point percentage jumped from 49.8% last year to 57.7% this year, and his 3-point percentage jumped from 38.4% to 50% on 3.4 attempts per game. Managers shouldn’t expect him to continue to make half his 3-point attempts, but he has improved in that area.
Braun is not much of a shot creator. 100% of his 3-pointers and 84.5% of his total are made this season. were helped. 26 of his 58 field goals made came from a Jokic dime. Just to be clear, 45% of Braun’s buckets were set up by Jokic. Again, this is not a knock on Braun, but it shows that this is a great fit.
His shot chart this season epitomizes what the modern NBA looks for in role players. He pretty much only shoots 3-pointers and layups. Only three of his shot attempts were mid-range shots from outside the paint. Braun knows what he’s good at and makes sure to make an impact there. He ranks in the 83rd percentile on point up attempts, the 75th percentile in transition and the 91st percentile on cuts to the basket.
Braun is currently shooting 67.3% in the restricted area on 5.5 attempts per game. The only guard who shoots a better percentage on at least five attempts per game is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is known as one of the best finishers in the game today. Braun’s tests may be easier than the ones SGA gets, but the effectiveness is remarkable.
Game making
Frankly, Braun’s game depends on him playing without the ball in his hands. He is more than capable of making some plays, but he is best utilized by moving without the ball. He only averaged 2.8 assists per game in college, so the expectation was never for him to make a huge impact in that category. Playing alongside Jokic, Jamal Murray, Russell Westbrook and Aaron Gordon, there is no reason for Braun to be the primary ball handler. He will get occasional help in transition or in the flow of the offense, but this is a weakness to his fantasy stat set.
On-ball defense
There are currently 14 players averaging at least 5.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. Only three of them are guards: SGA, James Harden and Braun. He’s not an elite defensive player, but he took on the toughest assignments every night, which made his advanced defensive numbers look bad. In fact, he’s a skilled defender who can stay in front of tough matchups and make plays with his active hands. His negative wingspan was certainly a question mark entering the draft, but his instincts are good enough for him to make plays.
Off-ball defense
Braun always has his head on a swivel. He times the ball well and seems to find himself in the right place to make a play. That may seem like he gets lucky in defensive stats at times, which is partially true. However, it can mostly be attributed to simply being aware of his surroundings.
What Braun does best, whether he’s on or off the ball, is turn a defense into an easy offense. He pushes the ball in transition for easy layups after receiving the ball, and when he’s not involved in getting the stop, he flows out quickly, knowing Jokic will find him for an easy two. Denver is 4th in the league in fastbreak points per game (18.3), and Braun is currently 8th in the league in total fastbreak points with 48.
situation
Maybe I harped on about how Braun had already taken enough advantage of his situation. They picked up his team option for next season, which means that if he doesn’t get a rookie extension before next year, he will enter restricted free agency in 2026. Basically, his play this season will be the freshest thing on their minds. from the front office when they negotiate a new contract for him. This is not to say that he “has a contract year”, but the early results indicate that a new contract will come next fall. Things change quickly in the NBA, but it appears that Braun is on track to share the court with Jokic until at least 2027, when the MVP can decline his player option (if he chooses) and enter unrestricted free agency.
General perspective
The best-case scenario for Braun is that this season is enough to earn him a nice extension, and he continues to start alongside Jokic until the wild card rides off into the sunset. Braun is more than capable of being a fantasy stud in a different situation, but there simply isn’t a better scenario for him. He’s been a fifth-round producer in 9-cat leagues so far, though managers shouldn’t expect him to continue to grow in that regard. He’s playing at a high level, and it’s hard to imagine him producing significantly better value than what he’s shown this season.
You can look at that in one of two ways. The first is that this is a perfect situation. He plays so well without hitting ridiculously hard or lucky shots. He just gets open and makes plays on both ends. Nothing crazy is happening, so this is sustainable production, even if the 3-point shooting takes a slight hit. The flip side is that these shot numbers are unsustainable, and he will regress. Making 50% of your 3-point attempts after hitting 38.4% the year before isn’t going to stick, and the volume is low enough that it could change quickly. Not to take the easy way out, but I find myself in the middle. Braun is playing at an incredibly high level, and if you don’t believe that will continue, selling high is not a bad option. However, I don’t think this production is lackluster or simply a result of more minutes. Braun has been legitimately good this season and will be a big reason for Denver’s continued success.
Stats via NBA.com/stats
