It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of Daniels, and he’s been a favorite among fantasy analysts all summer. I don’t claim to be his biggest supporter, but I’ll do my best to get you on the hype train. The beginning of his third season was very fun, and he was one of the best players in fantasy basketball early this season.
Daniels played one season with the G League Ignite, where he averaged 12.0 points, 7.1 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 2.0 steals per game, leading the Pelicans to draft him with the eighth overall pick in 2022. He played 17.7 minutes per game as a rookie. and 22.3 minutes per game during his second year in the league, which limited his success in fantasy basketball. Daniels has already shown flashes of being an elite defender, but New Orleans was stacked with talent on the perimeter and already had one of the best defensive players in the league in Herb Jones. Dynasty managers called for more minutes for Daniels, and their wish was granted this summer when he was shipped to Atlanta as part of a package that sent Dejounte Murray to the Pelicans.
With the Hawks, Daniels has already played six games, starting in all of them. Some games were better than others, but he was a top 60 player in 9-cat leagues early on, averaging 12.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.2 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.3 triples in 29.7 minutes per game. . With a Yahoo ADP of 143.9, Daniels has been an incredible asset in draft leagues, but can this be maintained in dynasty formats?
Shooting/scoring
Daniels is averaging a career-high 1.3 triples on 3.8 attempts per game. 34.8% is elite, but it is a step more than 31% during his first two seasons. However, he was actually more efficient on pull-up 3-pointers (4-of-8) than on catch-and-shoot threes (4-of-15). 19 of his 23 attempts were considered “wide open,” meaning there is at least six feet of separation from the nearest defender. Those are great shots, but he only made seven of them (36.8%). In reality, Daniels is shooting better than he used to, but he still doesn’t shoot the ball very well. Seven of his eight 3-pointers he’s made this year have been assisted, with Trae Young setting up three of them. Young already has nine assists on Daniels this season, which is more than 28% of his makes. As the two continue to develop chemistry, Daniels will only get easier looks.
Daniels is currently shooting 76% from within five feet on 4.2 attempts per game. Among players who take at least four shots from that range per game, Josh Hart is the only non-post player who shoots a higher percentage. Many of those tries came off layups and fast breaks, but he showed some fun driving flashes and a willingness to cut to the rim.
Game making
The numbers haven’t improved as a passer, though that can at least partially be attributed to playing alongside Young and Jalen Johnson, who are the team’s primary playmakers and ball handlers. However, Daniels can fit right in as a reliable secondary or tertiary playmaker. An issue the Hawks faced since Trae was drafted was that they couldn’t figure out how to score when teams doubled him. Dejounte was an answer for a while, but the passing of Daniels fits exactly what they need. He knows where to go to get open and can quickly analyze the defense to find the advantage when there are two defenders guarding Trae. Daniels won’t be a ball-dominant assist chaser, but he knows how to play within the offense, which naturally leads to assists.
On-ball defense
The offensive improvements are nice, but this is where Daniels really makes his money. He is currently second in steals per game and is one of two Hawks who has a positive defensive box plus/minus. He’s a Bugatti parked next to a trailer park in Atlanta as the best defender on a team that is one of four allowing more than 120 points per game this season. Daniels has done a solid job, but it’s an adjustment to become the guy who guards the opposing team’s best player all night after playing your first two years as a backup. He will continue to improve, but the numbers in fantasy have been great regardless.
Many of his steals came from his 6’10.5” wingspan, which allows him to poke the ball out from behind opposing ball handlers. Even if he gets beat (which happens to even the best defenders in the NBA), he is not out of the game and can still help his team stop. When he can stay in front, that wingspan can lead to both steals and blocks. He’s only hit a few shots this season, but it’s clear that he’s really making an impact on the plays he makes.
Off-ball defense
Daniels’ main job every night is to take the other team’s best scorer out of the game. Sometimes it’s a ball-dominant player he’ll have to guard with pick and rolls. Other times, teams are creative in how they get the ball to their stars. Daniels was adept at fighting through off-ball screens and sneaking his hands into passing lanes. Offensive players cannot be lazy when he is on the floor because he will easily turn it into a quick opportunity.
situation
Daniels took advantage of Atlanta’s injuries a little early. Although he was part of that for two games, Bogdan Bogdanovic (1 game), Kobe Bufkin (0) and Vit Krejci (4) were all largely sidelined. Bogi is the main one that can sneak into Daniels’ minutes, but his 29.7 minutes per game shouldn’t be too far off from what he’ll get when everyone is healthy.
Trae is the best point guard he’s played with, but Daniels will never be more than a secondary player when everyone is healthy. That’s not a bad thing, as it will help him stay effective. De’Andre Hunter has only played in two games so far, and he’s another guy who will be guarding the other team’s top scorers every night. However, with the amount of elite scoring threats on each team, Daniels will be in the action every night to try and make the Hawks a respectable defense.
The Hawks are in the middle of a rebuilding phase (I think?), and they want to see how this team fits around Young. Early on, Daniels appears to be just what the doctor ordered as Trae’s shooting guard. A low-key, efficient defender who can knock down open shots. He doesn’t need to become a guy who takes nine 3-pointers per game, but if he continues to improve at stretching the floor, the entire team will benefit from more space around Young.
General perspective
He played well early, but where can he continue to grow? On offense, it starts with knocking down shots. If he can improve his catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage (which we discussed earlier) and free throw percentage (37.5% on 1.3 attempts won’t hurt you much, but it’s still major yikes), he should easily be. capable of reaching 15 points per game. He doesn’t have an average game, and managers shouldn’t expect him to become an elite scoring option, but he’ll get his money’s worth doing a little bit of everything.
His value will mostly be wrapped up in his steal numbers, but he’s improved his numbers across the board as he’s played an increased role. He is still only 21 years old, and this is his first time with a permanent starting job in the NBA. Let’s enjoy the continued rise of this young, Australian star.
Stats via NBA.com/stats
