It’s not a stretch to say that in most fantasy drafts, the late passes can often separate the contenders from the pretenders. Pulling the lever on choices that require some faith in the unseen or yet-to-be-realized potential takes some strength, but can pay handsome dividends when they hit.
Therefore, we highlight several options at guard, forward and center who could exceed consensus expectations this upcoming NBA season:
Guardians
Lonzo BallBulls (PG)
By definition, a sleeper carries an inherent combination of risk and upside. If there’s any player who fits the bill to a T, it might well be Ball, whose next minute of regular-season on-court action will be his first since Jan. 14, 2022, due to multiple knee surgeries. However, with the veteran guard seemingly remaining free of setbacks for months, it appears that Ball’s arduous journey back to the floor may finally be nearing an end. And a supposedly healthy Ball is a familiar entity to us in terms of fantasy production.
Assuming there hasn’t been a permanent loss of burst and speed, Ball can make significant contributions in points (though not always in an optimally efficient manner), assists, rebounds and steals. For what it’s worth, Ball also shot a career-high 42.3 percent from three-point range in that truncated 2021-22 season. The other main question surrounding Ball besides health is the extent of his playing time, considering the Bulls added Josh Giddey this offseason. However, if Ball proves durable, he should carve out a solid second-unit role, at the very least, as the season progresses.
Spencer DinwiddieMavericks (PG, SG)
Dinwiddie and the Mavs just can’t seem to let go of each other as the veteran is set for his third stint with the franchise after signing a one-year deal this offseason. He also spent parts of the 2021-22 and 2022-2023 campaigns in Dallas, and thanks to his earlier time with the Nets, Dinwiddie has experience sharing a backcourt and serving as a second-unit complement to Kyrie Irving in addition to Luka Doncic.
Dinwiddie appeared to be an extraordinary and less-than-ideal fit during his time with the Lakers in the latter part of last season and in the postseason. However, this is a fresh start with the defending Western Conference champions and along with some staff and head coach he is already very familiar with. Dinwiddie has already proven a very good fit in Jason Kidd’s system – he shot over 40.0 percent from distance in each of his previous Mavericks stints while averaging a combined 16.8 points over the entirety of his 76-game, two-year tenure in Dallas.
Other Sleepers to consider: Marcus SasserPistons (PG); Gabe VincentLakers (PG,SG); Julian StrawtherNuggets (SG)
advances
Chris MurrayTrail Blazers (SF, PF)
Murray isn’t a name that’s anywhere near the top of mind for fantasy players entering this fall’s draft, but especially for those in deeper leagues, he’s certainly one that’s wise to keep in mind. The 2023 first-round pick got plenty of seasoning at the college level by today’s standards, playing three seasons at Iowa and heading to the NBA after an outstanding junior campaign (20.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.0 steals). Murray then finished his rookie season with 28 consecutive starts for an injury-challenged and non-combat Blazers team, averaging a useful 9.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.0 steals across 32.2 minutes per contest.
Offensive efficiency was an issue for Murray as a rookie — he shot just 39.1 percent in that aforementioned span — but much higher accuracy is definitely within his range of results, considering he drained 47.1 percent of his shots over his last two college seasons. Portland is once again projected for another sub-30 win season and young pieces like Murray should therefore be prioritized, especially if a veteran like Jerami Grant is eventually moved.
Simone FontecchioPistons (SF, PF)
Fontecchio saw his 2023-24 season come to an untimely end on St. Patrick’s Day due to a toe injury, just as he was in the midst of a particularly productive run following his trade from the Jazz. In 16 games (nine starts) with Detroit, Fontecchio averaged 15.4 points (on 47.9 percent shooting, including 42.6 percent from three-point range), 4.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists through 30.3 minutes per contest. Fontecchio is expected to be fully healthy to start the new campaign, and although he will slot in behind Tobias Harris at power forward, that shouldn’t be a major impediment to solid production.
Fontecchio is likely to enjoy a sizable second-unit role right out of the gate, and if the 32-year-old Harris has his minutes hit to some degree and/or starts to wear off, then the former’s minutes would only count towards increasing. Fontecchio has already proven to be a capable perimeter shooter during his brief NBA tenure, and his all-around game could certainly take another significant step forward on a team that should once again prioritize young talent.
Other Front sleepers to consider: Brice SensabaughJazz (SF, PF); Cam WhitmoreRockets (SF,PF); Tari EasonRockets (SF, PF)
Centers
Kel’el WareHeat (C)
Ware may be a rookie playing behind Bam Adebayo, but the 15th overall pick already looks very capable of forcing Erik Spoelstra’s hand and carving out an early significant role. Following an impressive sophomore campaign at Indiana, Ware immediately began to validate Miami’s June investment in him with a Summer League stint that saw him average 18.3 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.9 blocks through 26.5 minutes per game.
Ware is a seven-footer with some range as well, as he was prone to taking the occasional three in college and finished with a 42.5 percent success rate from behind the arc during his sophomore season. Ware looks to open the season as perhaps the first big man off the bench for Miami, and if he proves reliable early on, a role big enough for all of him to make significant fantasy contributions is certainly possible.
Trayce Jackson-DavisWarriors (PF, C)
Jackson-Davis flashed potential during his rookie 2023-24 season, recording 27 double-digit scoring performances, including six double-doubles, following an impressive four-year college career that seemingly left him ready to hit the floor running at the professional level. The fact that the Indiana product accomplished those numbers in just 16.6 minutes per game makes the production all the more remarkable, and his average of 1.1 blocks per contest despite his 6-foot-8 stature is also eye-popping.
Ahead of the 2024-25 campaign, it appears as though the volatile and soon-to-be 35-year-old Draymond Green is the only obstacle between Jackson-Davis and a starting center role. Kevon Looney is also still on the roster, but he already filled a reduced role last season (16.1 minutes per game) and could be in for modest playing time again in the upcoming campaign.
Other Central sleepers to consider: Jalen SmithBulls (PF,C); Zach CollinsSpurs (PF, C); Richaun HolmesWizards (C)
